Some random, ahead of Tuesday, thoughts on our Presidential Election.
Public Housing
>>>>>>>Nugget #1. 1856. (I do the History Corner around here over at the daily Good News Round Up, so you kinda had to expect some history in this post.) 1856! What you will see on Tuesday is something not seen since 1856 in American history.
You see, Joe Biden has been President the last 4 years. A Democrat. He has not died in office. He HAS chosen to step down after 1 term. Kamala Harris, a Democrat, looks to succeed him. 1 Democrat …..2nd Democrat.
So? Well, in US history, for the Democratic Party, the LAST TIME a Democrat succeeded another Democrat NOT BY REASON OF DEATH…...was 1856. Franklin Pierce decided 1 term was enough and chose not to run. Fellow Democrat James Buchanan won the nomination and handily defeated the last gasp of the dying Whig Party, brushed aside the “American Party” (the “Know Nothings” who were anti-immigrant) and had little trouble fending off that new kid on the block, the Republicans (formed in 1854.) Oh it was true the Republicans picked a rugged frontiersman and war hero, John Fremont, to carry their banner, but Buchanan won.
But after that? The next Democrat elected President was Cleveland, who was succeeded after each of his non-consecutive terms by a Republican, first by GOPer Harrison in 1888, and then again by Republican McKinley in 1892. Wilson got two terms but Harding started a string of 3 Republicans. FDR won election 4 times…..and died in office to pass the baton to Truman….who, in 1952 could NOT pass it to Stevenson.
Once again in 1960, JFK was killed in office but Johnson in 1968 could NOT pass the office to Humphrey. Carter only had one term. Clinton had 2….and was followed by the Shrub. Obama had 2….and, well, you know…..
By contrast for the Republicans, Lincoln, killed in office, and Johnson was followed by Grant, Hayes, Garfield and Arthur. McKinley, killed in office, nonetheless was followed by fellow Republicans Roosevelt and Taft. The 1920s string has been noted. Most recently, Reagan in 1988 passed on the Executive to Bush the Elder.
So, with the election at hand, YOU have another chance to see History before your eyes.
Boulders are nuggets at the gym
>>>>>>>>Nugget #2. How significant will 2024 be as an election? The “polling” has been ridiculously tight/close/neck-and-neck/…...according to the increasingly hamstrung pollsters and the demented media types who simply do NOT KNOW HOW to report elections except as a “horse race.”
But let me ask this. In 2020 Biden got 81 million votes, Trump 74 million. Every single year about 2.5 million Americans die, mostly of natural causes and overwhelmingly from the Over 65 cohort of the population. That’s 10 million gone, and they are the heaviest voting age group. According to Roper, Trump won the over 65 age group in 2020 52%-45.
In very crude terms it is suggestive to say there are 5.2 million fewer Trump voters around here in 2024 (10 million X 52%). We can increase this number OR give it greater reliability by including the excess COVID-19 deaths that occurred at higher rates among the NON-Vaccinated/horse pasting/ bleach drinkers.
My math says, very roughly of course, that Trump is (and will have a fair chance to be) UNDER 70 million votes this time, just on this alone. Where can he find “replacements”? (What pool is there of voters who “Voted for Biden in 2020, but I regret it and now I’m for Trump.”? Where do they live?)
Fred Flinstone’s next assignment
>>>>>>>>>>Nugget #2A Well one place to look is at the other end of the voting lists. Every year about 4 million Americans turn 18 years old and become eligible to VOTE, so there is a pool of 16 million possible voters out there.
BUT things are different among the Youth. When Biden rang up 81 million votes 4 years ago, he won the 18-29 age demographic by 60-36%. In 2024 that would mean at the same split Harris could be looking to add 9.6 million new votes to the Democratic column. Again, the crude math says 81 +9.6 million = 90.6 million.
OK, ok, so we can also chip off the 45% of deaths in the Biden column (4.5 million or less) and take this down to 86.1 million.
BUT I say on the basis of this crude calculation alone, that the chances Harris gets 86-87 million votes is FAR MORE LIKELY than Trump can even MATCH his 74 million from 2020. (And THEN you can throw in the Dobbs decision/economic recovery/people being called “garbage”/Project 2025, and I think there is a fair chance at a 90 million-70 million split by Friday morning. A 56-44% gap (and in American presidential politics, landslides start at 10 point gaps….)
>>>>>>» Nugget 3
All sorts of colors together…..
A) Early voting ended in Georgia. 4.0 million early and mail-in votes…..from a total turnout in 2020 in Georgia of 4.9 million. That sounds…..enthusiastic! (And which candidate has the more enthusiastic rallies that people want to get INTO and don’t LEAVE EARLY from?)
B) Early voting total in Texas has reached 8.8 million. In 2020 11.0 million votes were cast in Texas...another whopping high percentage coming out ENTHUSIASTICALLY! Oh, and in Texas? There is a history of Low Turnout; that 11 million in 2020 was only 53% of eligible voters.
Now, and after last Sunday’s Madison Square Garden Hatefest, calling Puerto Ricans “garbage”, there is fury in the land. More significant are several reports of Latino communities of all origins saying out loud and to each other “We are ALL PUERTO RICANS now!”…….and in Texas, that 11 million from 2020? 53% of voters? Ummm…..the Latino/Hispanic people in Texas are 39.% of the total population…..which is 11 million all by themselves……
C) Iowa Ann Seltzer’s polling operation is the Gold Standard for the state. In June she polled the state and found Trump with an 18 point lead over Biden. She polled again in late September and reported Trump leading Harris…..by 4. Now her new/last poll (conducted Oct. 28-31) has been released : Harris 47 Trump 44. Sooooo…….
Rocks piled on Project 2025
>>>>>>>>>>Nugget #4 Ok, so I have had the occasional dream of being a numbers geek. It comes over me now and again. There is this running, growing narrative of Democratic/ Independent/ women’s enthusiasm for Harris, right? Unlikely voters. New voters. “Low-propensity” voters. The kind that pollsters have nightmares about …..because they are unlikely….new...etc. There have been scattered reports/hopes/fingers crossed that RVATs (Republicans voting against Trump, an actual organization) and Nikki Haley primary voters and old school Republicans who are still patriots or are sick and tired of the MAGAs more than we are and women voting with gusto/fury in the secrecy of the voting booth are signs of defecting/flipping Republicans.
Now the thing with FLIPS is that a vote comes off of Pile A and goes on to PILE B, making a net swing of 2. In a re-aligning sort of election how many are doing this? Some have said/wished it is 25% of GOP voters are voting for Harris this (maybe just one) time (a number comparable to the traditional union members who were reliably Democratic for decades, but who voted in 1980 for Reagan at 22%-28% levels, the start of “Reagan Democrats.”)
25% would be staggering. But maybe 15%? Ok, I said to my inner nerd, “How about if its 10%? What would be the impact in each state and on the election as a whole?”
SO, taking the results from 2020, state by state, reducing the Republican total for Trump by 10%, then adding that number to the Biden total for that state for a possible Harris total. What happens?
A) Harris wins! :-)
B) All those 2020 swing states (PA, GA, WI, MI, AZ, NV) are all safely Harris.
C) Are there any states that under this approach would swing/flip from Trump to (Biden)Harris? YES. Like which ones? Alphabetically (and with electoral votes noted) the Flips are: Alaska (3), Florida (30), Iowa (6), Maine-district 2 (1), North Carolina (16), Ohio (18), and Texas (40).
Wow….with a 10% shift. Alaska? OHIO???? Florida AND Texas???? Yep….that’s what 10% would do. (And 10% ALMOST flips South Carolina; if that would happen the ENTIRE Atlantic seaboard from Maine to Key West would be as blue as the Pacific…..:-))
Oh and the Electoral College vote would move from the solid Biden 306 Trump 232 to a jaw-dropping Harris 420 and Trump 118.
Unlikely? Somewhat. But in a landslide election there are surprises (“this district hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1946, Frank!”).
And in my estimation, the pleasant surprises (along with the jaw-dropping ones), in 2024 are on the side of the Landslid-ER (Harris) and NOT the Landslid-EE.
Just my thoughts. Thanks for reading. Blessings on us all for the living through of these Days!
Shalom.
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