New York Times / Siena polling which has been leaning towards Trump for weeks has turned towards V.P. Harris in their last poll before the Tuesday election, with Kamala ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada. We have had an extraordinary early voting turnout in North Carolina with older Republicans turning out at higher rates than previous election cycles. Despite that strong GOP turn out, NY Times / Siena polling of those early voters gives Kamala a big lead with early voters. This is extremely good news for Kamala and very bad news for Trump. The late undecided voters may very well be Nikki Haley Republicans who voted for Harris. That would explain why such an apparently favorable early GOP turn out has had such unfavorable results for Trump.
www.nytimes.com/...
Rates of early voting are particularly high in North Carolina, where more than half the voters said they had already cast a ballot. Ms. Harris wins early voters in the state by 8 percentage points, perhaps contributing to her three-percentage-point edge in the survey of the state. Despite recent devastation there from Hurricane Helene, more than nine out of 10 North Carolina voters said that the storm and its aftermath have had no impact at all on their ability to vote.
This WRAL headline is stunning given what the New York Times has polled:
NC early voting ends with over 4 million ballots cast ahead of Election Day Bucking past trends, Republicans are outpacing both Democrats and unaffiliated voters during the early voting period.
Given the recent polling out of Iowa, the momentum is very strongly towards Kamala and when she wins North Carolina Trump has very few realistic paths to 270 electoral votes. Abortion/ women’s bodily autonomy is an emerging top concern for voters in the upper midwest. This bodes well for Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa, and perhaps Ohio.
The polls also reveal a shift in the issues being prioritized by voters in the final stretch of the race. The economy still remains their top concern, but in states like Wisconsin, where Ms. Harris has held a consistent edge, abortion now nearly matches the economy as voters’ most important issue.
We have been canvassing and working our butts off to turn out our low propensity voters in the Charlotte and Raleigh Durham metro areas and it is working. We still have a major push on election day but the voters that we have not canvassed are our base voters.
I ran up and down many stairs yesterday afternoon to get apartment renters to the polls. One of them was just getting ready to vote and gladly accepted my material on down ballot races. We were able to take many others off the list because they had already voted. We have seen other Dem canvassers when we have been out in the field and we have seen Dem fliers on doors, but we have seen no evidence of GOP canvassing. We canvassers and phone bankers are bringing home victory.
It’s amazing to me to see as many Harris signs as Trump signs when I drive into rural eastern NC. In 2016 it was 100 Trump signs to 1 Hillary sign. The vibes are much more like 2008 when Obama won.
Remember, that these NY Times / Siena polls have been adjusted to account for the relatively low response rate of high school graduate or less education voters — Trump’s most favorable demographic. They have not been adjusted for the increased enthusiasm of women to vote since the Dobbs decision that strips women of their bodily autonomy. That enthusiasm is only reflected in the results, such as North Carolina’s, where women have already voted.
The early voting results are very favorable in North Carolina for Harris, given the high GOP turnout. www.nytimes.com/...
Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
