As I begin to write this, it is just after 5 PM on the day before election day. I will make an attempt to put together a myriad of thoughts, and provide my reasoning. I am not sure what I have to offer is of any value to anyone, as predictive or even as analysis, but so be it.
Before I get into detailed predictions, where I am right now is this
1. I fully expect Harris to be elected
2. I strongly expect the Dems to take the House of Representatives.
3. As of now, I think the Dems will continue to control the Senate, although that in some ways is a closer call.
There are some reasons based on data for what here might consider my optimism. There are also some perception/observations that cannot be easily quantified. And there are clearly things about which to be concerned: possible violence at polling places, possible violence elsewhere. serious attempts to use legal process to interfere with the will of the voters, election officials in some places who may refuse to certify elections, and clear interference by foreign actors such as Russia by various memes.
Despite all that, I maintain my optimism. So head below the squiggle to read why.
First, let me deal with the Selzer Iowa poll and what it means, at least to me. I have been very amused at those who praise Selzer but do not believe she has it right. My attitude is different: I do not think she is an outlier, because I see polls in two other states that support the overall thrust of what I see in her polling.
Let’s review the key point — her Harris by 3 represents a 10+ point shift between the election of 2020 and what she is predicting. In the past week or so we have had polls in KS and OH that show a similar pattern, in KS with Trump now only +5 and in OH two polls with Trump either +5 or +3.
Let’s assume a 10 point shift from 2020 results. Were that to hold true nationally, not only would Harris win all 7 battleground states and th 2nd CD in NE, she would also win IA, TX, FL, the 2nd CD in ME, and would be tied in AK. Ponder that for a moment — and for fun consider the implications in the electoral vote (leaving out AK): it would be the 303 EVS in what Biden won in 2020 + 40 for TX, 30 for FL, 16 for NC, and 1 for ME-02. That is another 87 EVS, for a total of 390.
Not saying that IS going to happen, but there is other evidence, not necessarily reflected in all polling, that makes this possible.
Since the MSG rally, there has been clear movement in the Latino community in direction of Harris. The “garbage” remark was actually reinforced in the eyes of Puerto Ricans by Trump getting into a garbage Trump. And the dissing of PR has reinforced previous anti-Latino remarks (think Mexicans) going back to 2015 and 2016. Plus MSG had multiple other communities being insulted. As to Puerto Rica, the Archbishop of San Juan sent on behalf of all of the RC bishops on the islant basicaloly demandingan apology from Trump, which has not been forthcoming. The largest paper in PR, which has a large readership in PR communities on the mainland, has strongly endorsed Harris.
I think this has a huge impact. There are almost 30o voters of PR heritage in PA. There are significant Latino populations in AZ, NV, GA, and NC (not to mention TX and FL, the latter also having a large Haitian American population).
It is worth remembering, as others here have noted, that IA instituted a 6 week abortion ban this summer, which has led to strong rejection by women in IA of Trump to be sure. Pundits note the lack of campaigning in IA, but that has not been absolute — after all, Mayor Pete was recently in IA. But that ignores the fact that a chunk of western IA is the Obama media market, and thus has gotten the ads and the coverage of the NE-02 House race. That probably has had some impact.
We have seen a LOT of focus by the Harris campaign on abortion and related health issues, most notably the event in TX. But that focus has gone national, and seems to be sinking in, perhaps in a way NOT reflected in most polling. But note that older women in IA strongly support Harris. 4th C D in the N and W of Iowa is one of oldest CDs in the country. I am 78, leading edge of baby boomers. Women older than me and even fair number younger than me have clear memories of life before Roe, and of all the other rights women did not have, and are clearly upset to see rights either rolled back already or being threatened.
States with abortion initiatives may well see the impact of the coverage given by the Harris campaign to the issue as something that clearly can influence turnout and voter intensity. That includes both AZ and FL, fwiw,
While I think of it, ME is also an old state, and Jared Golden is running well ahead for reelection in CD-02, and I think that may indicate that Trump may well lose that electoral vote.
I look at early voting states and note that in what I am seeing both nationally and in most of battlegrounds women voters are 10%+ more than men (possibly 12% plus in GA). Also in GA, there seems to be a strong turnout of voters 18-25, which I suspect will break disproportionatey for Harris. As to women: last election the proportion
Polling by NAACP seems to indicate fears of some Black man tilting towards Trump not supported by their data.
I have watched at least part of rallies by both sides. There is far more enthusiasm for Harris and Walz. People at Trump rallies seem bored, often we see folks walking out, and in past few dayshe has not come close to filling some venues. Harris rallies are packed. And the quality of speakers are far better. When Trump is having Alina Habba and Stephen Miller as warm-up speakers, that is an indication of a real difference.
Field and turnout — I voted early. My wife is voting tomorrow. She has been receiving mail every day for the past ten days (we are in PA) and as I am typing this she just got a phone call to make sure she votes (they cannot do door knocking in the apartments in our life care community). Th Republicans do NOT have a serious turnout operation, the Dems have a superior one, in part because ours are committed volunteers, and some of those on the other side are being paid to do it (and may not a actually be doing much).
Much of the outreach and convincing being done is not that visible to a lot of punditsl Young people on our side are doing tons of communicating on TicToc, including having put the Access Hollywood tape back out into circulation.
Pollsters do not reach people who have not yet registered but can register when they vote (true in many states). Those taking advantage of this right to register when voting seem to be disproportionately younger, which means they will be disproportionately voting for Harris.
I have probably rambled enough.
But there is more. There is polling out of MT showing Tester ahead, albeit by a Dem pollster. But the Republican candidate has been somewhat self-destructing recently, and Tester has done a major effort in turning out voters in the ten Native American tribes (as has Gallego in AZ, who has visited all of AZ’s reservations, even those fairly inaccessible).
So let’s look at the electoral votes. I tend to accept Selzer’s polling. I also note that Jon Ralston, the guru of NV politics, now thinks Harris will win that state, albeit narrowly.
Of the battlegrounds, I think the Blue Wall holds along with the 2nd CD in NE. With just that, Harris is elected with 270 EVs. I think she wins both GA and NC, the latter narrowly. I agree with Ralston on NV. With just that, and IA, which I now think she wins, and the 2nd CD in ME, which I also think she wins, she is at 315 EVs (hope my math is correct).
I am less positive of AZ, although I think for a variety of reasons that will also be blue — Mormons on immigration and two promenent Mormons in Giles and Flake, and the strong outreach to Native Americans. Add 11 EVs — 326.
That leaves TX and FL — I think both are possible, but as of this evening not sure either is likely. BTW, both will be reporting early and several things at which to look. In FL — 1) how is initiative on abortion doing? 2) How is initiative on marijuana doing? 3) How is Murcasal-Powell doing against Scott. The initiatives needs 60%, not clear they will get there. In TX, of course, the real issue is how Allred will do.
So let’s pivot to Senate. I know Dems lose WV, I think we will hold all other current seats (including Gallego replacing Sineman). That means we are at 50, which means with then VP Walz to break ties we have control of the Senate, but not necessarily of committees, which would probably have even membership. We could lean on Murkowski to go independent, but that is unlikely.
I do not think we are going to beat Scott, sadly, because he is corrupt. I am inclined to think that Allred will win, in part because the issue of abortion is now very relevant in TX.
There are two more possible. One would be Osborn winning in NE, which I make as slightly better than even money, in part fueled by large turnout in 2nd CD. Not clear with whom he would caucus. He is labor — UAW was in state campaigning for him. But he also would probably not support reinstating Roe, and he wants a border wall, BUT — he wants to abolish the filibuster.
Then there is the longshot, which is defeating Hawley. Folks have to remember that MO currently has an abortion amendment on the ballot, and even if the AG gets a court order not to count those votes, that can lead to increased turnout against Hawley. Unlikely, but not impossible.
So I think Senate will be either 50-50 or 51-49 or maybe 52-48 in our favor. Although if there is a late national surge going on, it could reach up to 55-45.
The House — too time-consuming to go through all the races. I expect to pick up seats in CA, NY and IA, but the question is how many. We should be picking up one in IA. There are few other places as well, including possibly one in VA. I expect we win control with a probable net increase ranging between 8 and 15, but there is not enough data for me to explain in detail.
One last comment. Last time Trump got 74 million votes. I am NOT sure he will get that many this time. I think some previous supporters will stay home, and some will switch. More Trump supporters apparently died of COVID than did Dem supporters. And I think Harris has succeeded in expanding the proportion of the electorate willing to vote Dem. And of course we have a larger population.
A total of about 158.5 million voted in the last election. At a minimum I would expect that number to be somewhat over 160 million. What if it is 165 million or more? Even let Trump expand to 75 million or thereabouts, which I do NOT think will happen. You could be talking about a margin of 10 million or more, which would be something like a 6% margin — substantial but not a landslide.
I have felt since Harris became the nominee that she would win 319 EVS and win the popular vote by 10 million. If what we are seeing in the past few days -Trump rallies not full, greater enthusiasm on Dem side, better field and turnout, etc — it could be wider, even substantially.
I have things at which I will be looking tomorrow. I will look for reporting on turnout. I will see what if anything of interest in exit polls. I will be looking at certain Congressional races, and certain counties in various states — Erie, Bucks, and Northampton in PA; Oakland, Kent, and Macomb in MI; Milwaukee, Dane, and Brown in WI; a couple of smaller counties with high percentages of African Americans in rural GA ...etc.
I think we will know the direction of the election by Wednesday afternoon.
But then, I am no expert.
I could be totally wrong,
What do you think?
Peace.
UPDATE at 9:11
Looking at current Trump rally — perhaps 1/3 empty — this has been happening increasingly in past few days. Could it be possible that people are starting to accept that, despite the flood of red wave polls released in past week, that he is going to lose? If that is so, he could get blown out. Then TX and FL, but more importantly, if a chunk of his voters stay home, that has serious consequences downballot — State Supreme Court races, state legislatures, House of Representatives, perhaps even some local races.
Not going to change my prediction right now, but if I see a real diminution of same day voters in “red” areas beyond what has shifted already to early voting, that may well be an indication.
So here is something to watch, and something I should have noted earlier. Watch Indiana, where most polls close at 6 EST, the rest at 7, and they should count fairly quickly. The Governor’s race has been considered by some folks as competitive. If we see the Dems pulling ahead in that race, it MAY be an indication of something happening nationally.
Peace.
