Results: AP • CNN • New York Times • NBC • Politico
Join us live on Daily Kos YouTube, at the top of the hour, for the next update.
The first polls have closed in just a few states so far. Here’s where things stand at the start of the night.
Topline: Harris 3, Trump 19
The big news at the top of this hour is Hamilton County, Indiana. This suburban Indianapolis county went Trump 52-45 in 2020. Harris leads it by 1 point, with 65% of the vote in. If we see an 8-point swing in suburban America, it’s not going to be particularly close. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley won 34% of the vote there in the Republican primary.
2012: R+34
2016: R+19
2020: R+7
2024 so far: D+1
Still, it could be Democratic-heavy early vote or a factor of where the votes have been counted. We’ll keep a close eye on it.
What else I’m looking at:
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In Pennsylvania, the big story so far is turnout. By 6 PM ET, they were already at 2020 turnout, with talk of voter turnout exceeding 70%. In all, city officials expect 50,000-100,000 more votes this year than in 2020. That’s a lot. Detroit is headed toward record participation, and they’re hoping to get 55%. Meanwhile, Trump is already trying to suppress the vote and seed his patented chaos and bullshit.
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There was a lot of dooming about Nevada’s Republican-heavy early vote. Democrats had to turn out in full force in Clark County, home of Las Vegas, to have a chance to overcome the Republican early-vote advantage. Well … Democrats had already surpassed 2020 numbers at 3 PM local time, with fours still left to go. Looks like the Harry Reid machine is still firing, and Democrats are well in their way of doing what they need to do to win the state.
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When House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi speaks, we listen. Not one prone to boastfulness or exaggeration, the fact that she says Democrats have the numbers to take the House likely means that Democrats have the numbers to take the House. “Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House,” she told CNN.
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The Harris campaign says Puerto Rican turnout in Philadelphia is sky high, which validates the insane turnout data from the city. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, they say turnout is high in Democratic Durham, while lagging in the rural districts that deliver the bulk of the GOP’s votes.
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Florida looks lost forever. It is now a pretty effective Republican vote sink, helping make other states more blue.
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