Results: AP • CNN • New York Times • NBC • Politico
Join us live on Daily Kos YouTube, at the top of the hour, for the next update.
Lots of votes are coming in now, and we’re getting a slightly better picture of what the night will look like. Of significance, Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, and Wisconsin polls have just closed.
Remember 2020, when Florida was still considered a battleground and it fell early to Trump? People were despondent as rural counties reported first and generated a “red mirage.” Don’t let yourself be fooled by the red mirage. We have a long way to go.
Topline: Harris 99, Trump 137
What I’m looking at:
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In Georgia, Trump squeezed 0 to 5 points out of fully reported rural counties. It is quite amazing that they keep increasing their margins in those areas. Overall, Trump leads, but a ton of Democratic votes are outstanding. We’ll have a better handle on suburban and urban vote after some of those counties report. We’re still waiting. One good sign: In suburban Fayette County, with most votes counted, Trump is winning it by less than he won it in 2020.
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Democrat Colin Allred is running neck and neck with Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who is running behind Trump. One bad sign: Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke won Harris County by 201,000, and Allred is running behind that, with 70% of the county’s vote reporting. Of course, we don’t know what parts of the county have reported.
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Democratic advantage in Nevada seems to be growing. But expect Trump to be ahead on Tuesday night since the mail vote from Clark County—heavily Democratic—won’t report soon.
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In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is also running close to Republican Bernie Moreno. Painful. Trump is up in the state, though, so Brown is getting Republican ticket-splitters. The closer it stays at the statewide level, the better chance Brown has to survive.
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Republican Mark Robinson lost his gubernatorial bid in North Carolina, so at least North Carolina won’t be governed by a reportedly self-described “Black Nazi.”
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Bottom line, we still don’t have a great handle on any wider trends in suburban counties, nor the impact of larger turnout in urban areas.
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