So it’s come to this: Election Day. But rarely has an election been this uncertain. Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump having coin-flip odds of winning the White House, and neither party has a clear advantage in controlling the two chambers of Congress.
In other words, anxiety fuel.
Still, it helps to know exactly where things stand. Here’s your one-stop article for a graphical overview of the 2024 battleground.
The presidential race will primarily take place across seven battleground states (give or take an Iowa). Those states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And no matter which polling average you use, Harris and Trump are neck and neck.
PRESIDENTIAL RATINGS:
In the upper chamber of Congress, Democrats face an incredibly difficult map, with an expected loss in West Virginia (where independent Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring) and two red state incumbents—Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana—defending against far-right challengers.
That being said, there’s some unexpected hope in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is running a shockingly close race with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer. (At the same time, Osborn has not clarified which party he’d caucus with if elected, though he does have some ties to Democrats.)
SENATE MAP:
It’s an even-numbered year, so every House seat is up for election on Tuesday. Democrats face more favorable odds, despite one particularly nasty gerrymander in North Carolina.
HOUSE OVERALL:
HOUSE MAP:
In an update from what Daily Kos wrote on Oct. 13, there are now 25 House races with at least two non-internal polls since May. In a simple average of those polls, Democrats lead in 16 of those races, including seven currently held by Republicans.
The GOP leads in nine races, but only two of those seats are held by Democrats (Michigan’s 7th District and Washington’s 3rd District). If the polling leader were to win their race, Democrats would likely retake the House.
That being said, the polling is fairly sparse in the House, so—as with the presidency and Senate—anything could happen.
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