Gather round, everyone! It’s that time of the cycle: Let’s lay the cards on the table and see just how wrong we are after all the votes are counted.
I’ll go first.
President
Kamala Harris: 309
Donald Trump: 229
I have Harris winning the Blue Wall, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (which is worth one electoral vote), all of Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada. I was going to cede Nevada to Trump, but The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, who has a stellar record of predicting outcomes in his state, gave Harris the narrowest of edges on Monday, predicting she’d win by 0.3 percentage points.
Here, I’ll go further, ensuring my reputation suffers even more when I get some of these wrong:
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Harris +3
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Harris +10
Nevada: Harris +0.01
North Carolina: Harris +1
Pennsylvania: Harris +3
Wisconsin: Harris +5
I can’t believe I’m distancing myself from famed pollster Ann Selzer in Iowa, but I don’t see Harris winning the state. If Harris pulls it off, she’s also winning Alaska and Ohio—and maybe even Texas and Florida. And I see nothing suggesting those states will flip. I do think Harris loses it by far less than Trump’s 8-point margin of victory in 2020. I’m going to say Trump +3. Trump won Maine’s 2nd District by 7.5 points in 2020. I think Harris flips it.
There’s a scenario in which pollsters have simply missed how angry and motivated older white women are by the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade—just like how those pollsters missed Trump’s angry white working-class vote in 2016. And if that happens, we will get that blowout Harris victory. And there’s a scenario in which once again there’s a hidden Trump vote—pollsters struggled to reach his voters in the past, after all—or maybe those young bros he’s trying to court get their asses to the polls.
There’s also a scenario where Harris gets to 270 with just the Blue Wall (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the Nebraska district) while losing the Sun Belt battlegrounds.
I like my “slightly favorable environment for Harris” scenario best.
Senate
Oof, this is a tough one. We’re starting with a narrow Democratic control over the chamber, at 51-49, and we’re down one in West Virginia since independent Joe Manchin, who caucuses with the Democrats, is retiring. That means we’re basically starting at 50-50.
The conventional wisdom is that Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is a dead man walking, but remember that leaked Senate Republican memo of their internal polling? It was worried about Tester still being in the game, polling just 4 points behind Republican Tim Sheehy. I’ve heard from people who would know that he’s gone from being down double digits to being down in the low single digits. He’s the underdog, no doubt, but Sheehy has had a brutal final week.
I don’t think any other incumbent Democrats will lose. So what do I think? A lot hinges on that shock Iowa poll from Selzer. If older white women are indeed swinging that heavily for Democrats, that has implications for not just Montana but also the Nebraska Senate race, where independent Dan Osborn is shockingly close to the upset of the cycle.
My brain says: They both fall short, and it’s a 51-49 Republican Senate. But the hell with my brain. My heart demands a voice! Democrats lose West Virginia and pick up Nebraska and no other incumbent loses. (That includes Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas, where Democrats are within range of shocking upsets.)
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49
That one is going to get me in trouble. …
House
This one I’m sure of: Democrats take the House. The margin? Probably closer than we’d like.
Democrats: 220
Republicans: 215
I can fairly confidently work out how Democrats get to 220. If Selzer is right about Iowa, however, add another 5-10 seats to the Democrats’ total.
Note that I’m generally an optimistic guy, so be forewarned. And of course, none of this matters if we don’t finish strong with the best national get-out-the-vote operation in history.
Your turn!
Campaign Action
