What's Happening in Ohio?

What's happening in the land of Chappelle?

First Post [8:26-8:33pm EST] — Counties Flipping from Red to Blue

39% of votes counted, a statistical tie in the Presidential race, and Sherrod up by 5%

Several mid-sized counties are at 40%+ reporting and seem to be in process of flipping red to blue. Vote percentages are given as Democrat:Republican. Current numbers are courtesy of the AP Election Center, and 2020 numbers are courtesy of Wikipedia.

• Lorain 54:45 [2020 48:50]
• Mahoning 55:44 [2020 48:50]
• Trumbull 50:49 [2020 44:54]
• Wood 51:48 [2020 45:53]

and the list goes on … Haven’t seen Kornacki zoom in on Ohio yet.

This looks like a 6 point shift to the Dems emerging across multiple counties, somewhat similar to the shift that the Selzer poll caught.

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Update 2 [8:50pm EST] — Large Urban Centers

The big Dem urban centers are also showing a 5-8 point swing from last year.

• Cuyahoga 71:28 [2020 66:32]
• Franklin 70:30 [2020 65:33]
• Hamilton 64:35 [2020 57:41]
• Portage 54:45 [2020 43:55]
• Summit 62:37 [2020 54:44]

Is this, as a few commenters have noted, a blue mirage, or a consistent, emerging pattern across counties that could be outcome determinative? Biden only lost by 8 points.

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Update 3 [9:10pm EST] — Smaller Dem Centers becoming More Blue

50% of votes now counted. I’m adding a few more Dem counties showing a comparable 4-8 point shift blueward:

• Athens 65:44 [2020 57:42]
• Lucas 63:36 [2020 57:41]
• Montgomery 54:45 [2020 50:48]

Also started italicizing updates to the percentages posted earlier, and to new entries [e.g., Portage—an 11 point swing!!!], and started crossing out counties that have reverted to their 2020 historic pattern [e.g., Trumbull].