It is shaping up to be a disastrous night for the Democratic Party.
It is increasingly likely that not only will Donald Trump retake the presidency,
but also that he will have a Republican Senate and House.
I realize that many will scream, “Why now!!”
But in 20 years here at DKos, it never seems to be the “right” time.
So, now it is.
Given the huge Harris losses in Florida (43/56) and Texas (43/55) — losses which are worse than most polling and far worse than Biden’s losses — it seems likely that Democratic support has dropped dramatically among Hispanic voters and, perhaps, moderately among Black voters. Trump even has an early lead in New Mexico. This suggests that Harris will also lose Arizona and Nevada. Harris is 5 points down in Georgia and North Carolina and generally running a few points behind Biden’s numbers in 2020. Even Virginia looks dicey. So that leaves one straw — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, plus Omaha. But Harris is struggling there, too. Harris is not going to win.
The Senate was always going to be a challenge, but GOP control looks almost certain. With the loss of the White House, the Dems would need 51 seats. West Virginia is already gone. Tester in Montana has a major uphill battle. But Mucarsel-Powell lost badly in Florida. And Allred is trailing by 9 points in a soon-to-be-called race against Cruz. The real clincher is Ohio, where Brown is down 5 with 80% reporting. Maybe Pennsylvania? Maybe Wisconsin, too?? (After completing this, the Senate outlook is even more dire.)
And the House. Yes, I know that Pelosi already has said that the Democrats would retake the house. But not with these kind of numbers. Not with the gerrymandering that has taken place when the GOP controls more than half the state legislatures, many with super-majorities. Not when nearly every statewide political race has become sublimated within the national political divide. And not when they have actually lost a few seats as it approached midnight EST.
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So then, what are the Democrats going to do? If there is the possibility of doing something after Trump gets finished gutting the civil service and stacking the courts?? I think it fair to say there are two possible analytical frameworks:
Either — 1) The Democratic Party’s goals and policies are out of sync with the views of the majority of Americans. It’s not messaging or framing or GOTV — — it’s the message.
Or — 2) The majority of Americans are ignorant, racist, homophobic, misogynist suckers for charlatans like Donald Trump. Of course, that means that the Democrats will stay the minority.
Unfortunately, it seems that the latter view has largely held sway among parties of the center-left, not just in the U.S., but also throughout western Europe. Over the past 25 years, the single most salient sociopolitical trend has been the rise of the populist right and the collapse of support among the working class for parties of the left. In the U.S. In France. In Britain. In Germany. In Italy. And that bothers me.
A perfect example of this was the Obama administration’s “Cash for Clunkers” program. The supposed environmental goals of this program were dear to the hearts of upper-middle class Democrats — get older, more-polluting cars off the roads. But its implementation was another thing. Thus, people who normally switch out cars every few years — the upper-middle class and the affluent — were able to get new cars at 15-20% off. But, because 677,000 used cars were junked, the used car marked spiked — with used car prices doubling. It slammed the working poor.
An entire range of issues that are dear to Democrats’ hearts needs to be considered. The rather parochial concept of the “politics of the possible” might need a reboot. Because the politics of perfection has certainly not done the Democratic Party any favors. Anyone who has been in Modesto on a summer Saturday night would understand quite clearly that people in the Central Valley love their cars. Cars with internal combustion engines. Anyone who has been to the supermarket lately knows that the cost of food is a huge issue for the working poor — food that has significant energy components in its production and distribution. And housing — not the threats to democracy represented by Trump’s return — trumps them all. When young people into their thirties can hardly afford rent and know they will never be able to buy a home.
The Democrats lost this election, and lost badly, because they are out of touch. Lost to a total basket case that many who voted for him readily acknowledged was a nut case. That is how toxic the Democratic brand is for a majority of Americans. I am reminded of when I was a kid in Puerto Rico and American tourists would just repeat what they said in English louder when a Puerto Rican sales clerk didn’t understand them. Well, we have a choice. We can either just yell a little louder or try to speak a different language.
