Hi all. Tuesday night and yesterday were as bad as it gets. I’m working through it myself, as we all are.
I’m seeing a lot of sorrow and resignation around the idea that what just happened proves that we’ll never, ever elect a woman to be President of the United States of America. That the population is proving itself to be too misogynist.
I want to offer some hope. Yes, prejudice against women vs men is all too real and pervasive and it cuts deep. Misogyny is a fact. So many here have shared their own experiences with it.
And yet. It is hard to argue that Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico and Peru are more feminist than the USA. The first two had longtime female heads of state in the past. The latter two currently have a female head of state. And let’s also list Maggie Thatcher, not beloved in here but a strong and indelible leader for Great Britain in the 1980s. And of course Angela Merkel in Germany. And there’s been New Zealand and Iceland and several more.
Timing is everything. Yes, Hillary Clinton lost while being female. Yes, Kamala Harris lost while being female.
We need to look more broadly at the question of “When do Democrats tend to win?”
Bill Clinton won in ‘92 when voters were tired of the poor economy under GHW Bush and tired of 12 long years of GOP presidency.
Barack Obama won in ‘08 when voters were alarmed by the economic meltdown at the end of Bush-Cheney, and tired of 8 years of Bush-Cheney.
Joe Biden won in ‘20 when voters were traumatized by Covid and the related collapse of the economy — and though it had only been 4 years of Trump, he had a way of making it feel like 8.
Seeing a pattern?
The D Nominee wins the US Presidency when voters have had the actual taste of GOP leadership in their mouths and are wanting to spit it out. Run a qualified woman as D nominee in those circumstances and she is quite likely to win.
And the D Nominee tends to win when they are the incumbent (Clinton 1996, Obama 2012) who wants a second term and is widely seen as doing a good or even decent job, and voters are not feeling undue economic/financial stress.
We tend to lose during all other dynamics.
Hillary Clinton tried to be a continuation of 8 Obama years, and she suffered a similar fate as her husband’s former VP Al Gore in 2000 after 8 Clinton years. They both (Al and Hillary) came precipitously close to victory and they both won the popular vote, but electorally they couldn’t quite override enough voters’ interest in a change after 8 years.
Kamala Harris just tried to step in and be the continuation of the Biden-Harris presidency while Joe Biden’s approval rating was atrocious (-15 points), and while voters are still hurting and feeling financially insecure from the 2022 inflation spike and other economic pressures on the non-wealthy. Many voters saw her as a continuation of the Biden presidency. Yes, racism and misogyny were headwinds. But a lot of it also comes down to timing. Bad Timing.
We have yet to see what happens when we give a superbly qualified woman like Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris a shot at the US Presidency with the kind of timing enjoyed by Bill in 1992, Barack in 2008 and Joe in 2020. Let’s see that. Then we can talk about possible vs impossible.
And whoever runs as our D Nominee in 2028 is likely to have good timing after the coming clusterfuck. The setup for victory, unlike 2016 or 2024. Victory in 2028. Be she a woman, or be he a man.
Thanks for reading. I wish you all, us all, comfort and resilience and health. This is a horrible week and a difficult era is soon to unfold.
