A lot of ink has, and will be, spilled in the coming days on what the second election of Donald J. Trump to President of the United States means for Ukraine. I am not trying to gild the lily or present false optimism, but my guess is that predictions of Ukraine’s demise are premature.
To wit:
DON’T OVERESTIMATE TRUMP
We know from his years as a candidate and first term as President, that Trump: a) speaks impulsively; b) has a wandering attention span; c) lacks follow through (either as a function of b) or because of his innate laziness). In his first stint as POTUS, Trump spent huge amounts of time golfing. He is a poor judge of character, running through dozens of close aides, most of whom proved to be better at grifting and self-promotion than doing their jobs. Anything that required a sustained, heavy, lift was delegated by Trump. When proposals ran into opposition or failed to pass, Trump was more likely to shift blame than tip the scales. Also, although he has once again worked his dark magic on the American electorate, foreign leaders, diplomats and military officials have seen his schtick once already and know how to play him. This is not to say Trump is still not dangerous, or capable of causing serious damage as he did before. But let’s not assume that his boasting and eventual reality will be even close. The rest of the world is not MAGA. Remember that “beautiful wall” that Mexico was supposed to pay for, which never happened? In his first term, Trump succeeded where he had oligarch support, e.g. on taxes and gutting business regulations. Less so on foreign affairs. There are numerous cases where Trump demanded X, Y or Z, and was rebuffed even by his own party. Trump’s honeymoon will be shorter this time around, as he is barred from running again. The GOP jockeying over 2028 has already begun. Finally, we know that whatever squirrel’s nest of grey matter is between Trump’s orange-tinted ears is not in great shape. He is not only eight years older, but demonstrably deteriorating mentally and physically.
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE US MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (MIC)
We know from fairly accurate reporting that Trump in his first go-around was reined in numerous times by the national security and military officials around him. Even villains like John Bolton had a star turn in heading off some of Trump’s wilder notions. The MIC is still around. Don’t think for a minute that folks who are line for these jobs are not reading what Generals Mark Miley and John Kelly have said and written. This is not to say there will be some sort of cabal, or actual insubordination. But the job of POTUS is hard! Trump could barely manage absorbing the Dr. Seuss level daily intelligence briefings the intelligence community prepared the first time around. Those who provide information wield tremendous power if the reader of their product is inattentive, demented, or lazy.
DON’T OVERESTIMATE VANCE
Much fear these days over the impending role of VP-Elect Vance in the Trump Administration. In the view of some, Vance will be a Shadow President in all but name (akin to GHW Bush during the last months of Reagan’s second term as RR grappled with Alzheimer’s). Vance could also become POTUS in a day if Orange Julius’ Big Mac clogged arteries give out. However, Vance has two significant obstacles to his Skrull-like takeover of the US Government. Number One is Trump himself. DJT may be an orange husk, but he has a well-known irritation at anyone taking the limelight but himself. Recall his spirit of vengeance for those who threatened his limelight, or denied his whims, almost got his first VP hung by the US Capitol rioters. More importantly, Trump’s Grifter Brigade will be in immediate and direct competition with Vance’s minions, in a zero-sum war for influence and power. The Trumpist core remembers it wasn’t long ago when Vance was calling Trump a Hitler. Trump may think he has placed an heir to his succession as VPOTUS but must know Vance is just as capable of undermining him if Vance sees personal benefit. Number Two obstacle to the Ascension of Vance to Absolute Power: GOP rivals, particularly in the US Senate. Vance is not well-liked by his peers. They will gleefully shiv him if they think he obstructs their own paths to the Oval Office in 2028.
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE UKRAINE AND EUROPE/NATO
There seems to be a notion that, in the worst-case scenario, all that needs to happen is for Trump and Putin to make some sort of deal, then impose it on the rest of the parties. I can understand that fear — US assistance has been crucial to enabling Ukraine to defend itself. But Ukraine has shown itself nothing if not resourceful, militarily and politically. The stakes for them are existential. Even in a worst-case scenario, they retain many allies and ultimately should remain masters of their own fate. Bear in mind the opening paragraph of this diary — they have dealt with Trump before and know that what he says doesn’t always end up as US policy. After that same 2018 Helsinki meeting with Putin in the graphic of this diary, Trump announced he had agreed to a joint US-Russian cyber force — that mad scheme got walked back within 48 hours. Trump wants to buy Greenland. Trump wants this, Trump wants that. Then it doesn’t happen. Folks know his track record. Not only Ukraine, but Russia as well, are aware they are dealing with a mentally unstable man. In the jump ball for Trump’s Brain, Putin may find Zelensky is still a formidable opponent. I would also note that, although a lot of ink is also spilled on people like Orban and Fico, Europe by and large remains solidly in support of Ukraine. Although Europe cannot completely make up for a worst-case US retreat, it would be a mistake to assume they will automatically abandon Ukraine, or that they can’t still provide militarily significant assistance. And skilled European diplomats will also almost entirely be on Zelensky’s side in the Battle for Trump’s Brain.
DON’T OVERESTIMATE PUTIN
Despite his track record of the last ten years, there are still many people, including some with brilliant foreign policy credentials, who see Putin as the Master Strategist, playing six-dimensional chess. The reality has been somewhat different. Vladimir Vladimirovich’s three-day “special military operation” is about to enter its third year. He has many domestic pressures, economic, demographic and yes, political. Does he answer to voters? No, but that doesn’t mean he rules as a Tsar. The power-vertical he has built was shown to be rather rickety by the failed Wagner revolt in 2023, when RF troops reportedly started standing aside as Wagner mercenaries rolled towards Moscow. Let’s again postulate a worst-case, where Putin manages to get Trump to sign onto a Neville Chamberlain style surrender. Given Trump’s mental condition, and US political dynamics (where Ukraine still retains significant GOP Congressional support, including from Old Crow in the GOP Senate Caucus), can Putin be sure that Trump can even deliver and follow through on what he has committed to? That Trump won’t wildly gyrate from one direction to another? Putin witnessed this Trump in action in Syria, where Trump tried (and failed) to order a US military abandonment of the Kurds, then whirled around to kill Iranian senior official Soleimani with a drone. We need to remember, there are negative consequences for Putin as well if a supposed agreement with Trump falls through. I suspect Putin is blowing smoke when he says he will reach agreement with Trump. Does Putin hope Trump causes chaos and weakens NATO? Yes. But I doubt he is banking on Trump delivering a pro-Russian peace. Again, let’s not fall into the trap of assuming Putin is always out-thinking everyone else.
FINALLY — DON’T UNDERESTIMATE CHINA
Many have said it, and I think it is true, that China is the key to forcing Russia to compromise in Ukraine. Right now, there are a lot of wild cards flying around. China has its supposed “without boundaries” partnership with Russia. But what China banked on when they announced that partnership — a strong Russia — has not played out. It is also highly unlikely China views the growing Russia-DPRK alliance favorably — DPRK has traditionally been in China’s orbit. China is bracing for an onslaught of Trump trade tariffs. Why hand Trump a “victory” in Ukraine that frees the US to fully concentrate its wrath on China? And why grant Russia a “victory” that will continue to destabilize Chinese relations with not just Europe, but others like the new BRICS members? Central Asia also has its own dynamics, where Russia remains jealous of its former Soviet “near abroad” even as China presses its own influence through its Belt and Road initiatives. China ultimately wants to defeat US attempts to encircle and isolate them in the Indo-Pacific. How would the outcome of the Ukraine war impact this overriding goal? Ukraine continues to engage China diplomatically, and I suspect Ukraine has reason to hope China may end up in a useful role.
Just my speculation. I think that, in the wake of the recent US Presidential election nightmare, people may be jumping to overly pessimistic conclusions about Ukraine’s fate.
