One of the earliest political lessons I learned was: If you lose a contest, you get up the next day and start all over again. So I do not propose to stew in anger or hopelessness. We have a recovery to achieve and the work begins now.
First, some hard truths:
- The election was not “stolen”. Trump was elected because people chose to vote for him. Doesn’t matter how much misinformation the Russians pushed at us; doesn’t matter how much Elon Musk spent. People looked at a choice of Trump and Harris and chose him.
- It wasn’t because Harris was a woman, or black or bi-racial. There are certainly people in Trump’s camp who are racist and/or sexist, but some people voted for him who had voted for Gretchen Whitmer or Katie Hobbs two years earlier. Harris lost because she was the Democratic alternative to Trump. Biden would have faced the same result.
- More to the point, this wasn’t a “pro-Trump” or “anti-Harris” election. The broadness of the defeat (we lost ALL of the Blue Wall and Sunbelt States, and Senate seats in MI, PA and WI) tells me there weren’t some personal pro- or anti- vote or idiosyncrasies in a particular State’s demographics impacting results.
- No point ranting about the flaws in the Electoral College. Trump got an absolute majority of popular votes, and, reactionary as it is, it’s the system we have and it won’t get changed anytime soon.
Now, some personal observations:
- There wasn’t a “silent Harris” vote, especially among women. Plenty supported Trump, and in Florida, plenty voted down the abortion rights initiative.
- The incompetence and extremism of the Republican House didn’t scare away voters. At the present time, it looks like largely a wash. Among the candidates we supported, we will likely pick up four Red seats and lose four Blue seats.
- Hispanic and Black voters (especially non-college educated working class) should no longer be an assumed element of the Democratic base. They are winnable by the Republicans if they feel Democrats aren’t addressing their issues (more about this later).
- The youth vote isn’t our salvation. Overall young voters turned out less than in 2020. And young women aren’t a solution to the draining away of young men to Trump and the Republicans.
- The Democratic Party continues to suffer among non-college educated voters and especially voters in rural areas. We don’t need all of them, but we definitely need more than we’re currently getting. And we’ve known this for awhile, without finding a solution.
- From what I see, Trump votes were driven by concerns about the cost of living and the situation at the border. The Biden Administration didn’t address either, and couldn’t come up with an alternative source to blame. Uncontrolled immigration has been a driving issue in the Italian, French German and Dutch elections, and the incumbent Governments have all suffered at the ballot box because of it.
- Voters still have some limits: Ruben Gallego is going to the Senate instead of Kari Lake. And the Democratic State House candidates in North Carolina all won.
So, what do we do?
First, focus on the basics: “the economy, stupid” was the driving message behind the Clinton campaign. Voters in 2024 were concerned about the price of eggs and the interest rate on mortgages and car loans. The Biden Administration didn’t address those concerns until late in the campaign, and spent too much time promoting the national benefits of Bidenomics without first empathizing with voter’s personal issues. And the rise in the stock market isn’t a benefit for working class voters who don’t have 401(k)s or disposable income to invest.
Conversely, de-emphasize social-identity issues. I once met a DNC member from Kansas who lamented that, when he left urban Johnson County to talk to voters, the response was “all you Democrats talk about is pronouns”. Trump’s attacks on Democrats about transgender youth resonated with voters not because of religious intolerance, but because voters felt that “latinx”, “cis-gender”, “pronouns” and related framings of people were MORE important to Democrats than kitchen table issues.
Second, make sure things “work”. The migrant crisis that voters say they’re concerned about isn’t a matter of racism; it’s a sense that Government isn’t functioning. Immigrants are SUPPOSED to apply for admission and have their applications considered by Immigration officials and Judges. That’s clearly not happening and Democrats didn’t address the crisis until this year.
Third, treat Blacks and Hispanics as Americans first and racial/ethnic groups second. They start out with the same broad economic concerns as every other voter, and should not be seen as a monolithic voting block that cares about one special issue (institutional racism for Blacks, migrant deportations for Hispanics).
Fourth, focus on the States. That has been where are greatest electoral successes have been, in large part because State officials know their voters more closely. Too much policy development and political messaging comes out the Washington advocacy groups and cosmopolitan academic enclaves. If we want to win back some portion of rural voters, these aren’t the focal points with which to do it.
In the same vein, rethink our national Party leadership. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are from liberal New York. Nancy Pelosi is from liberal San Francisco. As politically savvy as they are, they appear to the average voter as coastal elites whom they can’t relate to. Let’s look for leaders coming out of battleground States with an ability to talk to Republicans and Independents, not just base voters. Pete Buttigieg has been successful going on Fox News NOT because he’s in Biden’s Cabinet, but because he started out as a successful Mayor in a rust-belt State.
Finally, step out of the bubble. Case in point: many people here rely on MSNBC for news AND OPINION about political issues, and disdain the NY Times or the Washington Post or CNN for a perceived skewed news approach to Trump and Republicans. First, consider that the average voter utilizes NONE of these news sources. Second, consider that MSNBC pundits largely agree with you (until they don’t, as which point I see people recommend MORE partisan liberal podcasts, YouTube channels, etc.). We need to be listening to (and challenging) opinions we disagree with.
