If Trump were to do his removal “equitably” then consider the following figures from Pew on states with most undocumented aliens as of 2022
- California (1.8 million)
- Texas (1.6 million)
- Florida (1.2 million)
- New York (650,000)
- New Jersey (475,000)
- Illinois (400,000)
Now, without even considering the issue of mixed families, where if the minor children with undocumented parents are all removed despite the 14th Amendment’s noting that if born in the US they are citizens and a Supreme Court decision, Wong Kim Ark v US in 1898, affirming that status.
As it happens, the number of people per Congressional District as of the 2020 Census was 761,169, and with normal population growth it may be around 800,000 as of the 2030 Census. The Constitution says to count persons, although in the past the Republicans have tried to count only citizens, and may again if in control for 2030.
So if you look at that, just with undocumented aliens CA would lose 2 or more seats NY probably 1, and maybe NJ and IL 1 each, and TX 2 or more and FL probably 2.
That’s without considering family members.
But what if the rounding up and deportations are focused primarily in BLUE states, and somehow exempt RED states like TX and FL? Not only would it shift even more Congressional representation to Red states, but it would also shift population based federal aid.
But imagine that even rounding up one cannot deport large masses, because the countries Trump would want to send them to will not take them back. It is one thing to put people on a plane or bus in one US state and dump them in another, as TX in particular has done, but doing that cross border might well be impossible.
So perhaps by the time of the next census this is still going on. People may have been rounded up and locked up, but not yet deported. Where will they be locked up and what impact does that have? Let’s answer the second question first — those incarcerated are in general counted where they are locked up, not where they last resided before being locked up. And what state has offered land for places to lock up undocumented aliens? Why it is Texas, which would then claim more federal aid and more representation in House of Representatives as a result of such incarcerations>
Is this possible? You betcha. Could it happen? Well, lots of things we never thought would happen are now happening, so would you really want to bet the farm against these possibilities?
