It’s now official — Assad’s own Prime Minister basically handed over what was left of the Syrian Government to the Rebel Alliance on State TV today as both the army and police essentially evaporated and opposition forces (led by the SDF in the south) swept into Damascus. The main questions remaining at this point:
Where is Assad? — from wikipedia:
On 7 December 2024, Syrian state media initially denied allegations that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had fled Damascus, describing them as "rumours and false news."[31] A source with knowledge of the situation stated that al-Assad could not be found at any of the expected sites in Damascus where he is usually present. Assad's presidential guard was no longer deployed at his usual residence. As of 7 December 2024 early evening, rebel forces found no solid intelligence on al-Assad's location and attempted to find him.[32] Senior Syrian officers later shared reports that Assad had fled Damascus on a plane to an unknown destination.[33]
According to Turkish media, as reported by the news agency bne IntelliNews, Bashar al-Assad and the rest of his family arrived in Abu Dhabi on 7 December 2024.[34] Meanwhile in Bahrain, a diplomatic adviser for the President of the United Arab Emirates said that "he did not know if Assad was in the UAE".[35]
On 8 December 2024, Reuters reported that Syrian sources considered there was a high probability Assad may have been killed in case he boarded a plane that was initially reported to be near Homs, heading to Syria's coast in the Mediterranean but then made a turn towards east.[36]
What next for Syria? — Aside from massive celebrations in the newly liberated areas of Syria and among the Syrian diaspora in Europe and elsewhere, there appears to be an agreement in place among the various opposition factions to set up an official interim government as early as tomorrow (December 9).
What next for the Alawite strongholds of Tartus and Latakia along Syria’s Mediterranean Coast (and in particular, the Russian naval and air bases located there)? There are some indications that at least some Alawites are also celebrating the fall of Assad, but there obviously remains much uncertainty as to how they might be integrated into a new post-Assad Syria, or whether they might try to form their own quasi-independent statelet that would be under Russian “protection.”
One step the US might want to consider at this point if it wants to establish a better relationship with whatever emerges in Syria is removing the $10 million bounty on Jolani’s head as leader of a “terrorist” organization (HTS), which was originally put in place by the Trump administration in 2017.
