It still is too late for Dems who are ambivalent about Biden, and perfectly sane to think that a continuing Haley candidacy will weaken the GOP.
Even with a 20 point difference, Nikki Haley was predictably crushed by Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina, but she is refusing to pull out of the race until the money runs out. Super Tuesday may end it.
The Haley / Trump gap is still better drawn among some indicators of class difference like education levels and ideology because the working-class and ‘nonworking-class’ dichotomy is increasingly bad for MSM messaging.
Here are four key sets of numbers that help explain Trump’s decisive win over Haley in South Carolina:
1. Trump’s dominance among the GOP base
Self-described Republicans made up a sizable majority of the South Carolina primary electorate on Saturday (68%), and Trump once again carried these voters by an overwhelming margin, winning 70% to Haley’s 30%.
2. Haley’s smaller coalition
Haley did have some success among the more moderate voters and non-Republicans who showed up to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary, but they made up much smaller shares of the electorate.
The former South Carolina governor overwhelmingly won voters who identify as moderate or liberal, winning 74% to Trump’s 25%, but they only made up one-fifth of the primary vote. Haley also carried independents, who accounted for just 22% of the electorate, though she won them by 25 points, a smaller margin than Trump won with Republicans.
Haley managed to win 82% of voters who believe President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, but they only made up a third of the electorate.
Haley only narrowly won a group where she might have had more of an opening: college graduates. She won 54% of them, besting Trump by 9 points.
3. Voters’ top issues favored Trump
A majority of South Carolina GOP primary participants said immigration and the economy were the two issues that were most determinative to their vote. And those voters largely favored Trump.
Among the 36% of voters who said immigration was their top issue, Trump won 80%, while Haley won just 20%. And among the 33% of voters who said the economy was their top issue, Trump won 62% to Haley’s 38%.
Haley bested Trump among voters who said foreign policy and abortion were their top issues, but those voters made up just one-fifth of the primary electorate.
4. Voters made up their minds before Haley’s rise
Trump’s commanding win also came as the vast majority of voters who turned out Saturday said that they made up their minds on which candidate to support even before the first primary contests took place last month — and well before the primary became a two-person race between Trump and Haley.
