Two years into Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, we are faced with sadness at the losses and tragedies our friends in Ukraine have endured, disappointment at the lack of progress in expelling the Russian invaders, and even despair at the prospect of that goal of full liberation from Russian aggression becoming unattainable. Much of the pessimism is due to the choices of leaders and factions who are not responsive to reason (except for the cynical logic of short-term political gain) or truth. Where do we look to for hope in this situation?
I think we need to keep in mind that almost all of Russia’s gains in this war happened within the first 3 months through surprise and treachery. They crossed the narrow bridges from Crimea into Kherson practically unmolested (then did the same to cross the Dnipro), leading to the loss of huge chunks of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. These sudden advances were enabled by Russian collaborators in the Ukrainian military, and would not have been possible with any degree of organized resistance. The only defenders who were really ready at the time were those who had been fighting since 2014 in Donetsk and Luhansk. With these immediate losses exposing their rear, the defenders at Mariupol and Melitopol had no chance. The surprise attack got the Russians (attacking through Belarus and the Chernobyl region) within twenty kilometers of Kiev, and to the outskirts of Kharkiv. Sucker punches, if you will.
We know how the pushback unfolded. We remember how Ukraine heroically held the line, then repelled the northern (Kiev, Sumy) invasion vectors, then relieved the siege of Kharkiv which led to a rout that liberated Lyman and Kupiansk, then masterfully executed the liberation of the Dnipro right bank. The victories were exhilarating, raising the hope of a swift conclusion to the war and all that might follow — a free and democratic Ukraine, the fall of Putin, and the subsequent weakening of autocrats from Tehran to Pyongyang. They left us wanting more, expecting more — then, winter set in. That was basically the first year.
2023 opened with hope of a resumption of the victories, a grand counteroffensive using Western-supplied arms that would remove the Russian land bridge to Crimea and set the stage for full liberation of all occupied territories. As we know, the gains were limited at best, and counterbalanced by losses at Bakhmut, and eventually, this year in Avdiivka. The obvious issue was the dug in positions of the Surovikin Line, trenches and minefields that the invaders were able to build while Ukraine waited for the delivery of Western arms. The more impactful development was the rise of drone warfare, that made it impossible to conceal any large-scale troop maneuver. The word “stalemate” and the precedent of World War I have been invoked to describe the state of affairs on the Ukraine front.
Digging deeper, we now see that the very thinking that gave us hope was also understood by Putin and the Kremlin leadership — that if they lost this war (sorry — “Special Military Operation”) that they so foolishly started, they would be toast. Desperation led to a kitchen-sink approach, a willingness to throw every able-bodied man into the meat-grinder for the sake of preserving their regime. The same logic was understood by their allies in Tehran and Pyongyang, who supplied munitions and drones, as well as started conflagrations elsewhere to divert Western attention. Putin’s fight became their fight. China has their own set of calculations towards Russia, but has been generally a net negative regarding Ukraine. (more on that elsewhere)
With this backdrop, it is rather easy to understand what went “wrong”. Russia (Putin) is now desperate, willing to sacrifice anything they can, to eke out anything they can sell to their people as a “victory”. The full cost of this madness for Russia is yet to become apparent, but the following article makes it clear that Putin cannot stop now without incurring immediate disaster.
www.businessinsider.com/...'s%20economy%20is%20so%20driven,win%20or%20lose%2C%20economist%20says&text=Russia's%20economy%20can't%20afford,of%20rebuilding%20and%20securing%20Ukraine.
It is imperative to know that the “stalemate” we are so disappointed by is in fact a slow-motion implosion of Russia, a hollowing-out of the entire nation, while the shell holds its shape at immense cost and with incredible effort. The time-delay between internal collapse and the shell giving way is prolonged by Putin’s machinations, but only builds up the destructive force that will accompany the inevitable implosion. The sooner this bubble pops, the better for everybody, including the Russian people. Also notable from the article: even conquering Ukraine will end up collapsing the Russian economy! The only way for Russia to not collapse in that case would be to continue on their war footing — in that case, guess who would be next in line to be invaded? We cannot treat this, as House Republicans seem intent on doing, as a faraway situation we can ignore or use as a political football. The internal logic of Russia’s war economy makes it a certainty that it won’t stop until stopped forcibly.
On the front lines, things look bleak, and the artillery hunger is real. But remember that the only substantial gains Russia has made were either achieved through surprise (including Crimea) or through depleting their future. The difficulty the Ukrainians face in retaking the territory lost in the early stages of the invasion is more akin to Korea right after the North invaded in 1950 (except South Korea was much closer to getting completely overrun). The tide was turned by bringing to bear overwhelming resources, and by the Allies creating some surprise of their own in Incheon. Something like that in Ukraine would be nice, but…
At present, Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, with limited supplies of ammunition and reluctant allies, hobbled by lack of political will, or worse. In the age of drones and satellites, surprise is seemingly impossible to achieve. Ukraine will not get a quick knockout like we wanted. With this in mind, the path to victory is to hold the defensive line as long and as stoutly as possible, bleeding Russia from the inside out, continuing to wreak havoc on the innards of Russian military, industrial, and political infrastructure with body blows (drones, drones, and drones). It will be less satisfying to watch. It will take longer than we would like. But this may be the only way. It is not defeatism. It is not holding on for a stalemate. It is the way to damage Russia for at least 3 generations to come, and possibly permanently.
If I were a particularly cold-blooded strategist with very bad intentions towards Russia, this is exactly the scenario I would have tried to create. We arrived here by accident — no Ukrainian would have been ok with this war the way it unfolded, and no sane reading of the US and friends would accuse them of being capable of executing such a grand strategy. Ultimately, this is the war that Russia insists on fighting, and losing. They try mostly to keep their face clean for propaganda purposes, but leave their underbelly exposed, and as the war reaches its later rounds, the punches will take their toll. The willingness to endure such losses for the sake of preserving “face” (the regime’s control) will ultimately be the ruin of Russia. Our Ukrainian friends count among their number the best boxers in the world, and this is something they will understand well.
