• MT-Sen: The New York Times' Michael Bender reports that Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, who has teased a Senate bid since forever, could announce "as soon as this weekend." But he also could announce as late as March 11, which is Montana's candidate filing deadline. So who knows?
• OH-Sen: Politico reports that two major Republican groups have reserved almost $83 million in fall TV time for Ohio's Senate race, with the Senate Leadership Fund putting in $57.5 million and American Crossroads adding $25 million. Their Democratic counterparts have yet to announce bookings to aid Sen. Sherrod Brown, but the state will be a top battleground this fall.
First, though, Republicans must make it through a three-way primary that's fast approaching on March 5. AdImpact reports that the Club for Growth just launched an $840,000 buy on behalf of businessman Bernie Moreno, touting him as Donald Trump's choice. A narrator concludes the spot in unusually personal terms, saying, "It's important to Trump: Vote Bernie Moreno."
• AZ-08: An internal poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for venture capitalist Blake Masters that was published by the conservative Washington Examiner finds a tight race in the Republican primary for Arizona's open 8th Congressional District.
Masters, who was the GOP's nominee for Senate in 2022, is tied at 24 apiece with attorney Abe Hamadeh, who lost a bid for state attorney general that same year. Former Rep. Trent Franks, who represented previous versions of this seat for many years before resigning in disgrace in 2017, sits at 9% while no other candidate gets more than 3% of the vote. 35% of respondents are undecided, though there's a long way until the Aug. 6 primary.
• CA-03, CA-16, CA-29: EMILYs List issued endorsements in three California House races on Wednesday, giving its support to former state environmental official Jessica Morse in the 3rd District, Palo Alto City Councilmember Julie Lythcott-Haims in the 16th, and Assemblywoman Luz Rivas in the 29th. Both the 16th and 29th are safely blue open seats while the 3rd, which voted for Donald Trump by a 50-48 margin, is represented by freshman Republican Kevin Kiley.
• CA-47: Activist and former attorney Joanna Weiss unveiled an endorsement from Democratic Rep. Josh Harder on Wednesday, making him the fourth member of California's congressional delegation to side with Weiss in the race for the state's 47th District. Weiss' chief intra-party rival, state Sen. Dave Min, previously announced the support of five California House Democrats, including Rep. Katie Porter, who left this district open to run for Senate.
• IN-06: Businessman Jamison Carrier just joined the growing GOP primary for Indiana's open 6th District with a pledge to self-fund $750,000, according to the Daily Journal's Noah Crenshaw. This conservative seat, which is based in east-central Indiana, is open because of GOP Rep. Greg Pence's retirement.
• IN-08: Here's a name that's a blast from the past: Owen County GOP chair Kristi Risk, who years ago came close to winning the Republican nomination for Indiana's 8th Congressional District, announced on Wednesday that she'd seek the seat once again.
In 2010, when the 8th was still competitive turf, Risk emerged from the nascent tea party movement to challenge Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who had flipped the seat in the 2006 midterms. But after Ellsworth made a late bid for Senate, national Republicans coalesced around heart surgeon Larry Bucshon, whom they believed gave them a better chance to win the district back than the extremist Risk.
Yet despite raising almost nothing, Risk held Bucshon to a narrow 33-29 win. Buchson went on to defeat Democrat Trent Van Haaften in a 58-37 blowout, but Risk came back the next cycle to challenge the new incumbent. This time, Bucshon prevailed by a more comfortable 58-42 margin, but only after heavily outspending Risk once more.
With Buchson's retirement, the seat is now open once again, though any other would-be contenders have only until Friday's filing deadline to make up their minds.
