• PA State Senate: After winning back the state House a cycle ago, Pennsylvania Democrats are hoping to end three decades of Republican dominance over the state Senate this fall.
The Pennsylvania Capital-Star's Kim Lyons takes a look at the battlefield for the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 28-22 majority. Democrats therefore need to flip three seats to benefit from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis' tiebreaking vote. However, an even split wouldn't give Davis' party complete control of the Senate because the state constitution places limits on how the lieutenant governor can resolve deadlocks.
But because only half of the Senate's 50 seats are up every election year, a tie is likely the best Democrats can hope for in 2024. Even the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee acknowledged to Lyons, "We consider the Pa. senate one of our 'multi-cycle' plays."
One reason the math is so tough is that, while Joe Biden and Donald Trump each carried exactly half of the 50 constituencies in the chamber, Trump won 13 of the 25 seats that are up in 2024. (Odd-numbered seats are on the ballot in presidential years, while legislators in even-numbered seats go before the voters in midterms.)
Two Republican-held seats that Biden won are up this cycle, while the GOP is also defending a seat that Trump only narrowly carried. However, Democrats don't have any strong targets beyond that trio, and they also need to defend a potentially competitive open seat that went for Biden.
Democrats got some welcome news last year when Republican Sen. John DiSanto announced he would not seek reelection to his 13th District in the Harrisburg area, a constituency that, according to Dave's Redistricting App, favored Biden 57-42. Rep. Patty Kim appears to be the favorite in the April 23 Democratic primary against pastor Alvin Taylor, while Republicans will choose between Dauphin County Treasurer Nick DiFrancesco and Army veteran Ken Stambaugh.
Republican Sen. Dan Laughlin, however, isn't going anywhere voluntarily. His 49th District in Erie County went for Biden by a small 50-48 margin, and two Democrats are hoping to face him: county party chair Jim Wertz and Selena King, who previously worked as an aide to U.S. Sen. John Fetterman.
Finally, Republican Sen. Devlin Robinson holds what's probably the toughest of the Democrats' three targets, though Lyons notes his 37th District in suburban Pittsburgh has changed hands between the parties four times beginning in 2012. Because teacher Nicole Ruscitto has no opposition in the Democratic primary, she was able to get a head start in her general election campaign for this 50-49 Trump constituency.
Every other odd-numbered seat held by Republicans, however, favored Trump by at least a 12-point margin in 2020, so Democrats don't have an obvious fourth target. The GOP's list, however, is much shorter.
The only vulnerable Democratic seat that Lyons identifies is the 45th District, which is also in the Pittsburgh area. With Sen. Jim Brewster not seeking reelection in this 53-46 Biden seat, state Rep. Nick Pisciottano and community organizer Makenzie White are facing off in the Democratic primary for the right to succeed him. On the GOP side, party leaders are supporting security firm owner Jennifer Dintini over Kami Stulginskas, who badly lost a bid last year for the governing council in the borough of Munhall.
Democrats are also hoping to protect and expand their one-seat majority in the 203-member state House, which they've since defended during four subsequent rounds of special elections. Spotlight PA's Stephen Caruso analyzed the key races to watch in February, though unlike in the upper chamber, few of them have contested primaries on either side.
• IN-Gov: The GOP firm ARW Strategies, polling the May 7 Republican primary on behalf of Crossroads Public Affairs and IndyPolitics.org, shows Sen. Mike Braun well ahead with 33% of the vote.
The firm also finds that none of his many opponents has emerged as a main rival: Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden are tied for second with 11% each, while former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers is at 10%. Disgraced former Attorney General Curtis Hill is far back with just 5%, while 30% are undecided.
