Russia has long counted on the West growing weary of providing Ukraine with long-term military and financial assistance. Complacent Westerners, Russian strategists hoped, would lose interest in funding a lengthy war, especially if Russian disinformation efforts could successfully portray Russian victory as inevitable. Ukraine would be forced to make humiliating concessions or even face outright defeat. The long delay in U.S. funding indicated that Russia's hopes were finally becoming a reality.
Now that the House has finally passed a robust aid package of $61 billion, it is becoming increasingly clear that Western support remains intact. To paraphrase the jingle of one of my favorite childhood toys, western support may have wobbled, but it has not yet fallen.
Europe has been particularly steadfast in its support of Ukraine. Given the unending stories of European dithering and dysfunction—such as Germany's irrational refusal to send Ukraine powerful Taurus missiles—it may seem surprising that collective support for Ukraine remains strong. The numbers, though, are clear. Here are the 2024 pledges of military aid for some of Ukraine's most important European supporters:
The total commitment from these five countries is $17.2 billion, which, according Keil University's Ukraine War Tracker, is close to the level of support these countries provided in 2022 and 2023.
Other European countries have not made specific pledges for 2024 but are continuing to invest heavily in Ukraine. Denmark, one of Ukraine's most generous donors, announced a new $336 million aid package in March, which included Caesar self-propelled artillery systems and 120-mm motors, plus ammunition. Sweden made a record $683 million package in February, including air defense weapons, anti-tank missiles, grenade launchers, and boats. The Baltic republics—which would undoubtedly be Putin's next target if Ukraine fell—are also eagerly renewing their support.
Ukraine's most vocal European supporters are also taking more initiative to help compensate for the lack of U.S. leadership. Aid packages are becoming more innovative to meet both short-term crises and address long-term issues. The Czech Republic, most notably, identified more than a million artillery shells in Asia and Africa and then spearheaded an international consortium to purchase the shells for Ukraine. Denmark is now buying weapons directly from Ukrainian manufacturers, thus contributing to Ukraine's military-industrial strength. Such initiatives to promote the Ukrainian defense industry will undoubtedly strengthen the case for Ukrainian membership in NATO and the EU.
Europe has also continued to provide significant economic assistance. With millions of its citizens living abroad, thousands of its buildings destroyed, and critical infrastructure under constant attack, Ukraine faces an immense economic crisis. In February, the European Union approved $54 billion in direct financial aid to Ukraine that will be distributed over four years. Such economic assistance is vital for Ukraine's war effort. It will help Ukraine pay its soldiers, care for its veterans, and support itn industries.
Now that the U.S. will finally provide its own $61 billion military package to Ukraine, it has become abundantly clear that the narrative of a war-weary West is badly flawed. The opposite dynamic has firmly taken hold. Now that so many Western leaders have invested so heavily in Ukraine—militarily, financially, and rhetorically—nobody wants to take the blame for a Ukrainian defeat. Even House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was parroting MAGA talking points for months, suddenly found his inner Churchill when it was clear that Republicans would take the fall for a Ukrainian defeat.
As many Ukrainians have rightly noted, Western aid has been imperfect; the wobbles have been significant and costly. The long delay in U.S. assistance has created a dire ammunition shortage for Ukrainian forces. Ukraine's lack of artillery shells and air defense missiles has allowed Russia to make incremental battlefield gains while destroying vital Ukrainian infrastructure. The refusal of the West to provide especially powerful weaponry—such as Germany's Taurus missiles or larger numbers of the U.S. ATACMS—has unnecessarily limited Ukraine's tactical and strategic options. Long production delays of artillery shells and other essential weapons have meant that delivered aid has lagged far behind the assistance promised.
Wobbles, though, are not falls. Russia miscalculated the degree of Western support just as it misjudged the tenacity of Ukrainian resistance. It is now paying an extraordinary cost for its mistakes. Taking the Donbas region—the objective of Russia's upcoming summertime offensive—will cost Russia tens of thousands of men and much of its dwindling supply of Soviet-era equipment even if it succeeds. Success is doubtful in the face of a determined Ukrainian military increasingly equipped with vastly superior weapons. In badly underestimating Ukrainian resolve and Western support, Russia's best-case scenario is a continuation of brutal attritional warfare for limited territorial gains.
