This ain’t no fooling around… perhaps not the best of looks for the US general thought to be the ‘Q’ of QAnon.
Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleschuk reported that Russian forces launched 18 Shahed-136/131 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea.[77] Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed all 18 Shahed drones over Kyiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkassy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
The New York Times (NYT), citing data from the Ukrainian Air Force's daily reports, reported on May 14 that constrained Ukrainian air defenses are increasingly failing to destroy Russian missiles.[78] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash told NYT that Ukrainian forces cannot afford to unnecessarily deplete their limited stockpiles of air defense missiles and are employing "non-standard" methods, likely referring to Ukraine's mobile fire groups, to destroy Russian drones and missiles. Yevlash noted that Ukraine is constantly moving its air defense systems in response to Russia's changing tactics and target set and to protect Ukraine's limited air defense systems.
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The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Russian offensive activity in this area is consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv Oblast. Several Ukrainian military officials reported on May 14 that they believe the situation in Kharkiv Oblast is slowly stabilizing — Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on May 14 that the situation in Kharkiv Oblast began stabilizing on the night of May 13 into May 14 as additional Ukrainian units deployed to the area and began defending against Russian advances.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn noted that Ukrainian forces have begun to "clear" Vovchansk by targeting visible Russian assault groups in the settlement.[2] Several Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces are using new tactics in this direction — using smaller assault groups of no more than five people to penetrate Ukrainian positions before merging with other small assault groups to unite into a larger strike group.[3] Drone footage purportedly from Vovchansk shows Russian foot mobile infantry operating within the settlement in small squad-sized assault groups, consistent with Ukrainian reports.[4]
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Russian forces continued to make marginal tactical advances in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City). Geolocated footage published on May 13 shows that Russian forces advanced southward to the intersection of Skhilna Road and Chervonyi Lane in eastern Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi). Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have seized the entirety of Lukyantsi and are operating in the fields southeast of Lukyantsi. ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of Russian forces operating in southern Lukyantsi or southeast of the settlement, however. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces "repositioned" near Lukyantsi to save the lives of Ukrainian personnel, likely a tacit acknowledgment of Russian advances into the settlement.
Russian forces also continued to make tactical advances in and around Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City). Geolocated footage published on May 14 shows that Russian forces have advanced along Slobozhanska Street in northwestern Vovchansk. Additional geolocated footage published on May 14 shows that Russian forces have advanced in northeastern Vovchansk near Zarichna Street. Russian sources reported that Russian forces have advanced in northwestern and northeastern Vovchansk, consistent with the available geolocated footage. ISW has notably not yet observed any confirmation of Russian forces operating on the southern (left) bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk thus far. Geolocated footage published on May 14 also confirms that Russian forces have advanced into central Buhruvatka (southwest of Vovchansk) and in forest areas north of Buhruvatka. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Buhruvatka, which is consistent with geolocated evidence and reports from other Russian sources.
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The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an investigation on May 13 detailing how Ukrainian shoot-down rates for Russian drones and missiles have dramatically decreased in the past six months due to more frequent Russian strikes, increasingly diverse Russian strike packages, and a shortage of US-provided air defense systems.[71] WSJ found that Ukrainian forces have intercepted 46 percent of Russian missiles over the past six months, compared to the 73 percent interception rate from the previous six-month period, and that the interception rate dipped to 30 percent over the past month. WSJ also reported that Russian forces have fired 45 percent more drones and missiles over the past six months than the previous six months, including double the number of Shahed drones. WSJ found that ballistic missiles and converted S-300/400 surface-to-air missiles are much harder for Ukrainian forces to shoot down, noting that Ukrainian forces have intercepted 10 percent of ballistic missiles and none of the S-300/S-400s. WSJ's findings are consistent with ISW's assessment that Ukrainian forces have had a much lower interception rate, particularly since mid-March 2024, largely due to dwindling stocks of US-provided Patriot air defense systems.[72] ISW has also closely tracked how Russian forces are experimenting and adapting their strike packages to best exploit weaknesses in Ukraine's air defense umbrella, consistent with WSJ's reporting.[73]
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on May 13 that the Russian 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, particularly its 121st and 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiments, are responsible for several missile strikes on Ukraine.[74] The GUR stated that the 121st and 52nd regiments operate from Engels Air Base (Saratov Oblast) and Shaykovka Air Base (Kaluga Oblast). The GUR noted that Russian forces operate Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers, which fire Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, from Engels Air Base and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, which fire Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, from the Shaykovka Air Base.
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Likely Ukrainian actors conducted a strike against a Russian railway line in Volgograd Oblast on May 14. Geolocated footage published on May 14 purportedly shows the aftermath of a likely Ukrainian drone strike against a train in Samofalovka.[33] The train was allegedly transporting fuel.[34] Volga Railway's Press Service stated that "unauthorized persons" derailed several cars of a freight train, and unspecified Russian operational services reported that the derailment and subsequent fire damaged almost 300 meters of railway tracks.[35]
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- The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Russian offensive activity in this area is consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv Oblast.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin's candidate for Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined his and Putin's intended priorities for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during a speech to the Russian Federation Council on May 14.
- Russian authorities detained Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Russian MoD Main Personnel Directorate Head Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov on May 13 on charges of accepting large-scale bribes.
- Putin appointed former Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev as his presidential assistants on May 14, further re-balancing his ministerial cabinet for his fifth term.
- The Georgian parliament passed Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" bill in its third and final reading on May 14, amid continued protests against the bill in Tbilisi.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US is interested in a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on May 14.
- Likely Ukrainian actors conducted a strike against a Russian railway line in Volgograd Oblast on May 14.
- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Krynky.
- The Russian MoD is reportedly coercing Russian citizens and migrants into Russian military service through false job opportunities, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
- Ukrainian officials continue efforts to return forcibly deported Ukrainian children to Ukrainian-controlled territory from Russia.
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Geolocated footage published on May 12 and 13 shows that Russian forces marginally advanced on the eastern outskirts of Kalynivka (NE of Chasiv Yar) and in the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar), respectively.
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Geolocated footage published on May 14 shows that Russian forces advanced south of Umanske (west of Avdiivka) and reached the S-051801 Novoselivka Persha-Umanske-Yasnobrodivka road. Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka) and further within Netaylove (southwest of Avdiivka), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces "changed" positions in some unspecified areas and that Russian forces achieved unspecified tactical successes in the Pokrovsk (Avdiivka) direction.
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