From June 6 to June 9, voters across the 27 European Union member states will go to the polls to elect 720 members to a five-year term in the next European Parliament.
So far, the polls and projections agree that there will be a significant shift to the far-right with gains for:
- Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) in France,
- Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany,
- the Geert Wilders-led PVV (Party for Freedom) in the Netherlands,
- the Christian-Nationalist AUR in Romania, and
- Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia.
According to the polls, these gains will be partially offset by the collapse of Matteo Salvini’s Lega party in Italy and losses for the Law and Justice party in Poland.
In the Parliament, the far-right political parties split themselves into two political groups, Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative Reformers (ECR). Even though they’re far from unified, a gain of 50 seats for the two groups, combined, could mean a problematic change in the balance of power, possibly affecting climate change legislation and Ukraine’s accession.
The polls also show the centrist political group, Renew Europe, anchored around Emmanuel Macron’s party, losing at least a dozen seats. The Greens/European Free Alliance political group are expected to lose up to two dozen seats.
The center-right European People’s Party/Christian Democrats (EPP) are expected to remain the largest political group, with gains in Poland offsetting losses elsewhere.
Of the remaining political groups, The Left and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are also expected to hold the seats they currently have, for the most part.
The chart below compares the current European Parliament (inner circle) with the incoming 2024-2029 Parliament (outer circle). The number of seats each political group currently holds is compared to the number projected by Politico.eu political analyst Cornelius Hirsch → https://corneliushirsch.com/eu2024-seat-projection-polls-data-european-parliament/
Hirsch’s projection is similar to the findings of Europe Elects at Euractiv → www.euractiv.com/…
Unless the far-right surges beyond what the polls indicate, the so-called ‘grand alliance’ of the center-left S&D, center-right EPP and the centrist Renew Europe will still have about 56% of the seats in the new Parliament and it should remain intact.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is running for a second term and, as if she were hedging her bets, she said in a recent speech that she would welcome support from the far-right ECR MEPs. In any case, she seemed to be opening the door, at least to the ECR, to play a larger role in the next Parliament. In particular, von der Leyen’s remark was taken as a nod to Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni whose Fratelli D’Italia MEPs caucus with the ECR.
In the next session, the ID or the ECR could also expand their power and influence by accepting Viktor Orban’s 12 Fidesz party MEPs into either of their groups. Currently, the Fidesz party MEPs are excluded from the far-right groups and they sit as Unaffiliated members which leaves them without any parliamentary recognition and without power.
Another unknown revolves around the Sahra Wagenknecht party in Germany which, according to the polls, may win as many as six seats. Their ideology incorporates far-left and far-right elements, as a sort of illustration of the horseshoe theory. It’s hard to imagine how they’d fit into any of the seven political groups and, with the current rules, they wouldn’t qualify to form their own group.
Analysis:
Political analyst Cornelius Hirsch compares the growing support for far-right parties to “rising sea levels” rather than a wave. He traces the increasing influence of populism to the 1990s and uses data to show how it has been slowly and steadily advancing for the last 30 years. → corneliushirsch.com/…
But how to explain the cliff where the centrists and the Greens are now headed? It’s a definite change from two years ago when the European Union seemed to be united and resolute in the fight against Russian aggression which only made the climate change transition more urgent.
In France, voters who chose Macron’s centrists or the Greens in 2019 are now migrating to a revitalized Socialist party, renamed the Place Publique and led by rising star, Raphaël Glucksmann. → www.ipsos.com/… The centrists simply failed to provide any solutions to the issues on voters’ minds: inflation/the cost of living/purchasing power, immigration, social issues/well-being. Raising the retirement age, as Emmanuel Macron did in France, isn’t what voters want and his party is going to pay for it in this election.
Voters still say they’re concerned about the environment and climate change (4th on the list of preoccupations) → www.ipsos.com/... During the 2019-2024 session the Greens successfully completed a major initiative with the European Climate Law which codifies the EU’s goal to become climate neutral by 2050 as a legally binding obligation. → www.loc.gov/… (The link goes to an article at the US Library of Congress.) But it doesn’t look like voters are going to reward them for the accomplishment.
It’s hard to say why, but it seems like there’s a backlash against the Greens for getting the European Climate Law done. The Greens, themselves, are divided between those who speak about the unsustainability of growth while seeking to regulate unrestrained capitalism versus those who insist that the transition mandated by the law must be more business friendly. And, in demonstrations across Europe, farmers made it clear that they oppose the law’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) provisions that slashed “farm diesel” subsidies while rolling out new regulations to reinforce biodiversity and animal welfare. Already, the EU’s 27 members are looking for ways to undo parts of the Common Agricultural Policy. Taking full advantage of the farmers’ discontent are the far-right ID and ECR parties who voted almost unanimously against the European Climate Law and its amendments in 2020 and 2021. Their increasing power and influence are a threat to further progress.
The far-right has also been busy stoking resentment against Ukraine. They say that cheap produce from Ukraine is flooding markets across Europe and hurting European farmers whose goods are more expensive.
Of course, the far-right still has their signature issue, immigration. As always, they promise to keep immigrants and refugees out.
These points, however, don’t go far enough to explain the far-right’s current success. There’s something else which is, perhaps, most disturbing.
At one time, not long ago, the European far-right was a 24/7 clown show. At times, it now seems as if politicians like Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen have somehow transformed themselves into “normie” politicians. They learned to play the game a lot better than they once did. Even if their positions haven’t really changed very much.
