The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● LA Redistricting: Louisiana is once again without a valid congressional map following a new federal court ruling issued Tuesday evening, and it's not yet clear how the matter might get resolved. But proposals put forward earlier in the complex litigation that has led up to this moment show that there are readily available options that should satisfy the competing legal principles at play.
One group of Black voters and civil rights organizations who originally challenged the map the state adopted in 2022 after the most recent census have already appealed the new ruling to the Supreme Court, and state Attorney General Liz Murrill, a Republican, has said she will as well. Another set of Black voters have also asked the federal judge who barred the use of the 2022 map two years ago in a different case to reopen proceedings to consider a replacement plan.
The Supreme Court could stay the lower court's decision pending further argument or conclude that it came too late in the election season to take effect this year. Louisiana's candidate filing deadline, though the latest in the nation, is now less than three months away. State officials have also variously claimed that new maps would need to be in place by May 15 or May 30 to allow for the administration of this year's elections, though an appeals court characterized those dates as "suggestions."
Should the Supreme Court decline to intervene, however, the three-judge district court panel in Shreveport that just blocked Louisiana's map will begin the process of selecting a replacement plan when it holds a status conference with the parties on Monday.
Two judges on that court, both appointees of Donald Trump, held that the map that lawmakers passed in January violated the Constitution by excessively relying on race to create the new 6th District, a majority-Black constituency that stretched diagonally across Louisiana from Shreveport in the northwest to Baton Rouge in the center of the state. (A third judge, who was named to the bench by Bill Clinton, dissented, saying the map did not constitute a racial gerrymander.)
The legislature adopted that map after a different federal court in Baton Rouge (this one overseen by a single judge, Shelly Dick) determined two years ago that the state's 2022 map likely violated the Voting Rights Act by failing to establish a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates.
In that case, plaintiffs demonstrated that it was possible to draw a more compact district along the Mississippi border that would satisfy the VRA without running afoul of the Constitution by allowing race to predominate.
Such a district, anchored by Baton Rouge, would be home to a Black majority. Importantly, it would give Black voters—who almost always favor Black Democrats—the chance to send a representative of their choice to Congress in the face of overwhelming support for Republican candidates by white voters.
Louisiana's GOP-run legislature, however, rejected that approach, purely on political grounds. The VRA plaintiffs' proposal would have transformed the 5th District held by Rep. Julia Letlow, a popular figure among local Republicans and the only woman in the state's congressional delegation. Since this version of the 5th would become solidly blue, that would have forced Letlow to wage an uphill battle for reelection, run against a fellow Republican in a neighboring district, or retire.
Instead, lawmakers decided to target an incumbent who found himself very much on the outs with the state's new Republican governor: Rep. Garret Graves. Graves had antagonized Gov. Jeff Landry by supporting an alternative candidate in last year's gubernatorial election, a slight Landry was not about to forget after his resounding victory.
Doing so, however, meant crafting a sprawling 6th District that cut diagonally like a 250-mile backslash across the state. To ensure the Black voting-age majority necessary to comply with the VRA, this revamped 6th incorporated heavily Black areas in the two cities at either end—Baton Rouge and Shreveport—as well as in smaller cities like Alexandria and Lafayette and in more rural communities in between.
Republicans in the legislature, with the support of many Democrats, passed just such a plan, and Landry, knowing it would leave Graves without a plausible district to run in, readily signed it into law. Though the new map didn't resemble those they'd put forward in court, the VRA plaintiffs were happy to declare victory because the new-look 6th would achieve their ultimate goal of creating another district that would advance the cause of Black representation.
But this choice came with a risk—namely, that the map would get struck down as an unlawful racial gerrymander. And there was good reason to fear it might: As Daily Kos Elections' Jeff Singer explained before the map became law, the 6th closely resembled a district that had been invalidated by the courts 30 years earlier on those very grounds.
Following the adoption of this map in January, a group of plaintiffs describing themselves as "non-African American" voters filed a new federal lawsuit in Shreveport challenging the plan, saying its goal was to "segregate voters based entirely on their races."
Ultimately, a majority of the three-judge panel agreed, calling "the similarities of the two maps"—the 1994 and 2024 versions—"obvious." (The dissenting judge, Carl Stewart, said he believed that political considerations, not race, predominated.)
The majority's conclusion, however, should not prevent the adoption of a map like the one the VRA plaintiffs previously proposed, since Dick, the judge in the Baton Rouge case, rejected the argument that such an approach amounted to racial gerrymandering.
But the Shreveport court threw in a complicating obstacle by suggesting that the map it just struck down also erred by dividing three cultural regions—North Louisiana, Acadiana, and the city of Baton Rouge—between districts. The dissent pointed out that this objection was bunk because these areas have frequently been split up, but should the majority persist, that could make it impossible to pass any VRA-compliant map because the VRA plaintiffs' original proposal also cuts across regional lines.
Whatever happens next, the courts will have to move quickly since the state currently lacks a congressional map and the elections are now just half a year away. Louisiana does, however, offer a somewhat more forgiving timeline because the state does not hold traditional primaries.
Instead, all candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot in November, with the top two advancing to a December runoff in the event no one takes a majority. That means the state won't have to print ballots for several more months.
The Downballot
● A Howard Dean comeback!? We couldn't believe it either, but the former Vermont governor (and one-time presidential primary frontrunner) says he's thinking about a bid for his old job, so we're strolling down memory lane on this week's episode of "The Downballot." The 75-year-old Dean would give Democrats a credible—and very recognizable—opponent for Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who currently lacks one. We gotta admit, we kinda like the idea!
We're also talking primary previews with Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who gives us the scoop on some of the top contests coming up this month. Among the races: the Republican congresswoman in Indiana who met bitter resistance when she tried to un-retire; the major battle in Maryland between a self-funder and the establishment; the most disgustingly transphobic GOP primary we've ever seen, down in West Virginia; and a "gun influencer" who could unseat a sitting Republican congressman in Texas.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts to make sure you never miss an episode. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by Thursday afternoon. New episodes come out every Thursday morning!
Senate
● MD-Sen, MD-03, & Baltimore, MD Mayor: Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks on Tuesday picked up the endorsement of former Sen. Barbara Mikulski, who is the only woman who has ever represented Maryland in the upper chamber, ahead of the May 14 Democratic primary. Mikulski retired from the state's other Senate seat in 2017 after five terms.
Mikulski also recently took sides in two other competitive nomination battles by endorsing state Sen. Sarah Elfreth's bid for the open 3rd Congressional District and backing former Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon's comeback campaign. Elfreth is campaigning for the House seat that's descended from the Baltimore-based 3rd District that Mikulski herself held before she joined the Senate in 1987, though the constituency Elfreth is running for doesn't include any of the Charm City.
House
● AK-AL: Businessman Nick Begich tells the National Journal's James Downs that, should he trail Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom in the Aug. 20 top-four primary, he'd end his campaign so the GOP could focus on beating Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in the fall. However, while Begich expressed his "hope" that his fellow Republican will "make a similar commitment," Dahlstrom declined to make this pledge.
● CA-16: Assemblyman Evan Low learned on Wednesday that he'd be former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo's sole opponent in the general election when he emerged from the recount of March's top-two primary with a five-vote lead over a third Silicon Valley Democrat, Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian. Simitian conceded later that day without endorsing either of his former rivals.
Low and Simitian were tied for second place after the state certified primary results last month. Had that extraordinary outcome held, both men would have advanced to a historic three-way general election to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo in California's safely blue 16th Congressional District. (Eshoo supported Simitian.)
However, a former Liccardo staffer named Jonathan Padilla unexpectedly requested a recount, and a newly formed super PAC called Count the Vote paid for the expensive weeks-long process. Liccardo has denied he had anything to do with requesting the recount, though observers were quick to speculate that it took place because the former mayor's allies believed he'd be stronger in a two-way contest.
Liccardo and Low, who respectively took 21% and 17% in the first round two months ago, will now compete in that head-to-head race. Both men, like Simitian and the rest of the Democratic field, campaigned as reliable liberals, but there are notable differences between them.
Local elections in dark-blue Silicon Valley often pit business-aligned politicians against candidates closer to labor. Liccardo, whom San Jose Inside's Barry Holtzclaw has characterized as an ally of "tech and real estate firms," squarely falls into the former camp.
Low, by contrast, had several unions on his side during the first round, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus supported him. The assemblyman, though, also has connections to the tech industry as well as to crypto groups. Low, who is of Chinese descent, was the youngest Asian American ever elected to the Assembly when he first won office a decade ago, and he would be the first LGBTQ+ member of Congress from the Bay Area.
● FL-08: Both Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott have endorsed former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos in the Aug. 20 GOP primary to replace Rep. Bill Posey, who timed his surprise Friday retirement announcement to ensure that Haridopolos would have no strong intra-party opposition.
● NJ-03: Public Policy Polling has released a survey from the Principled Veterans Fund that shows Assemblyman Herb Conaway leading colleague Carol Murphy 25-11 in the June 4 primary to replace their fellow Democrat, Rep. Andy Kim. Another 8% goes to businesswoman Sarah Schoengood, while a 51% majority are undecided. The sponsor is affiliated with the super PAC With Honor, which backs Conaway.
● TX-23: Both Rep. Tony Gonzales and gun maker Brandon Herrera are airing new ads savaging one another ahead of their May 28 Republican primary runoff for Texas' 23rd Congressional District. The Washington Post's Patrick Svitek says that Gonzales' spot is part of an overall $786,000 ad buy that includes TV and radio commercials, while there is no word yet how much the challenger is spending.
Gonzales' message features several veterans taking issue with Herrera for treating veterans' suicide as "a joke." It then displays a clip of Herrera saying, "If it makes everybody in the room feel better, I often think about putting a gun in my mouth. So I'm basically an honorary veteran." The rest of the commercial praises the congressman, who served in the Navy, as a conservative veteran.
Herrera's own commercial utilizes a recent clip of Gonzales on CNN saying of far-right members of Congress who oppose his reelection, "These people used to walk around with white hoods at night. Now they're walking around with white hoods in the daytime." The narrator goes on to say of Gonzales, "First he betrayed President Trump and voted for the Jan. 6 commission. And now he's using Democrat talking points to attack conservatives."
Ballot Measures
● ID Ballot: The coalition to bring the top-four primary to Idaho told the Idaho Capital Sun on Tuesday that it gathered close to 95,000 signatures ahead of the following day's deadline, a number it believes is enough to get its ballot measure before voters this November.
Idahoans for Open Primaries needs election officials to verify about 63,000 petitions―a figure representing 6% of Idaho's registered voters. It also needs to turn in a sufficient number of signatures in at least 18 of Idaho's 35 legislative districts; the coalition says it's accomplished this in 20 constituencies. Election officials have a total of 60 days to review the petitions before sending them to the state for its own analysis.
This plan would replace the Gem State's partisan primaries with the same type of system that was pioneered in Alaska in 2022. All candidates, regardless of party, would compete in one primary, and the four contenders with the most votes would advance to an instant-runoff general election. The measure would apply to races for Congress, the governorship and other statewide offices, the legislature, and county posts, though it would not impact presidential elections or contests for judicial office.
It would only take a simple majority of voters to approve the initiative on Nov. 5, but that likely wouldn't be the end of the battle. While a win would repeal a law the legislature passed last year to bar ranked-choice voting, the Idaho Capital Sun previously noted that legislative Republicans could try to pass a new bill to repeal it all over again.
● MO Ballot: The Missouri Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered a new election this November for a 2022 state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on police, which was up from the 20% already prescribed. The justices ruled that election officials had included a fiscal summary that "actually misled voters by suggesting Amendment No. 4 would have no fiscal impact when the fiscal note identified a sizeable one."
Amendment 4 passed statewide 63-37 even though it had no impact outside of Kansas City, which is the only major city in America that doesn't have control over its own police force. This wasn't clear to voters, though, because the measure did not mention Missouri's largest municipality by name. It instead said it would impact "police force[s] established by a state board of police commissioners," a classification that only applies to Kansas City.
● OH Ballot: AdImpact reports Citizens Not Politicians, which supports a proposed state constitutional amendment that would end Republican gerrymandering in Ohio, has reserved over $10 million for TV ads this fall. The amendment would create an independent redistricting commission that would draw fairer maps for the 2026 elections and beyond.
Supporters looking to place this plan on the November ballot have until an initial July 3 deadline to submit 413,487 signatures statewide and a certain amount in 44 counties. Should they fall short, though, they'd get an extra 10 days to make up the difference.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
● Alameda County, CA District Attorney: The Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday certified that the campaign to recall District Attorney Pamela Price had submitted enough signatures, but it will not schedule the election until it reconvenes on May 14.
The San Francisco Chronicle says that supervisors could opt to hold a special election sometime between Aug. 10 and Sept. 16 or hold the recall vote on the same day as the Nov. 5 presidential election. The county register's office recommended the latter option because of the extra costs of a special election.
Poll Pile
- CA-49: 1892 Polling (R) for Matt Gunderson: Mike Levin (D-inc): 44, Matt Gunderson (R): 42
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
