Assume Biden is behind.
Assume the polls are not as far off as we had hoped — that is irrational exuberance. The same irrational exuberance we experienced here in 2022 when many said we would flip the House and have 52 or more in the Senate.
And the current polls — even if off by a few points — do not account for anything going wrong with economy or world events between now and the election.
1) Full-time jobs down 1M due to layoffs. It was 2M last month and 1M jobs were not created in April, so the April survey may be too high.
fred.stlouisfed.org/...
2) People believe that 4 years ago under Trump — with the economy shut down, 25 million jobs lost, 12,000 store closures, supply chain a mess, and you couldn’t find toilet paper were the better times.
3) Oil companies have cut 100+ drilling rig crews, setting the stage for rising gas prices into the election — they want higher profits and see Trump as the one who will deliver for them
www.eia.gov/...
4) Corporations are keeping prices higher, keeping inflation high. Why? They want to keep their tax cuts and the prospect for more if Trump wins. Corporate profits are up 78% from 2019 — due to their greed.
fred.stlouisfed.org/...
5) Wall Street is buying houses and taking them off the market and turning into rentals — exacerbating affordable housing and pushing prices higher with fewer options for those looking to buy.
6) Prices are higher, savings is down, and they blame Biden (or think Trump would do better) while ignoring the role oil companies, corporations, and Wall Street have in making them poorer.
7) Insurance rates are pushing inflation higher. How many blame climate change?
www.msn.com/...
8) Most people are clueless about Trump 2.0 and project 2025.
9) The border is a problem and they believe Trump managed it better. They don’t blame Trump or Republicans for squashing the deal and believe we have open borders — but Trump never closed the border. Biden handed this issue to them on a silver platter. No way he should have let folks in if they can’t provide for themselves and need cities pay to house and feed.
www.cbsnews.com/...
10) Many voters will not buy the ‘hype’ warnings about Trump. In their view things were better under Trump. When you are living paycheck to paycheck, you generally lack altruistic views to worry about the future of the country.
11) The majority of polls show > 60% believe we are on the wrong track
12) Some of the pro-Palestinian sentiment was pushed by antisemitic groups. The young voters believe Biden should have done more to protect life in Gaza.
13) Abortion and democracy are not the top voter concern.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/…
14) In the most recent Quinnipiac poll (one of the few that have Biden up over Trump), Trump beat Biden in 4 of 6 top issues, winning only abortion and preserving democracy:
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling six issues...
- the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 49 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Biden;
- preserving democracy in the United States: 50 percent say Biden, while 43 percent say Trump;
- the response to the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 50 percent say Trump, while 40 percent say Biden;
- immigration: 52 percent say Trump, while 41 percent say Biden;
- the economy: 54 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Biden;
- abortion: 53 percent say Biden, while 37 percent say Trump.
poll.qu.edu/...
15) In the same Q poll, Kennedy had 14% of the vote. If not Kennedy, 37% would vote Biden and 51% Trump.
16) The inflation cuts everyone was hoping for may not materialize
www.msn.com/...
17) There is a significant increase in talk of a recession.
www.businessinsider.com/...
The deck is stacked against Biden and a lot could go wrong before the election, especially if there is no rate cut.
Psyops is flooding social media, and it will ramp up and get worse from here.
But Democrats are not engaged in this psychological war, and repeated lies work to manipulate opinion and beliefs. Democrats are not telling the story and showing voters who is really causing their pain.
Hopefully that will change — soon.
