The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● GA Supreme Court: Former Democratic Rep. John Barrow, who is seeking a seat on the Georgia Supreme Court, has filed a lawsuit asking a federal court to block a state board from sanctioning him for statements he's made in support of abortion rights during his campaign.
Barrow has made abortion the centerpiece of his bid to unseat conservative Justice Andrew Pinson, who is up for reelection for a six-year term on May 21.
"Now I'm running for the Georgia Supreme Court to protect our personal freedoms," says Barrow in a recent TV ad, "including the freedom of women to make their own medical decisions like abortion, fertility, and birth control politicians."
But Georgia's Judicial Qualifications Commission has taken exception to these types of comments, saying that they violate the state's Code of Judicial Conduct. Among other things, the commission charged in a letter obtained by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Barrow had "made pledges/promises/commitments related to highly sensitive cases/controversies/issues which are likely to come before the Georgia Supreme Court," in violation of the code.
The board demanded Barrow cease making such statements and remove offending materials from his campaign website and advertising. Barrow says in his suit that, should he fail to comply, he could face a variety of sanctions, up to and including disbarment.
But these restrictions and threats, Barrow argues, violate his First Amendment rights. He therefore wants the court to declare that the rules in question are unenforceable. Barrow's approach on the campaign trail closely resembles that of Janet Protasiewicz, who stressed her belief that "women should have the freedom to make their own decisions on abortion" in ads for her successful campaign for the Wisconsin Supreme Court last year.
Election Recaps
● IN-Gov (R): Sen. Mike Braun, who had Donald Trump's endorsement, had no trouble defeating Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch 40-22 in a crowded and expensive GOP primary to replace termed-out Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.
Braun will be favored in the fall against former Superintendent of Public Institution Jennifer McCormick, a one-time Republican who won the Democratic nod without opposition, in a conservative state that last elected a Democratic governor in 2000.
Braun, according to a 2021 report from the University of Minnesota, would be the first sitting senator to be elected governor of any state since Kansas Republican San Brownback in 2010.
● IN-03 (R): Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman is poised to return to the House following his tight 24-23 victory over businessman Tim Smith in the packed primary to replace Rep. Jim Banks, who won the GOP nomination for the Senate without opposition. The result is unwelcome news for GOP leaders who have unhappy memories of Stutzman's last stint representing this dark red seat in the Fort Wayne area.
Indeed, America Leads Action, a super PAC dedicated to defeating hardliners who could make trouble for the current crop of House leaders, spent $1.8 million to try to head off his comeback. Stutzman, though, benefited from aid from a group allied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, while his old allies at the Club for Growth also aired ads attacking his main opponents.
Stutzman, who was close to the tea party movement, attracted the wrong kind of national attention during the 2013 government shutdown when he said, "We’re not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is." Stutzman went on to take part in a failed effort to end John Boehner's speakership in 2015 (Boehner, though, ended up resigning later that year).
The GOP establishment therefore had little reason to be sad when Stutzman badly lost a 2016 Senate primary to House colleague Todd Young. That defeat appeared to be it for the former congressman, who seemed destined for a life of owning a local tourist attraction that offers "relaxing tours of Amish life" (albeit one located in the neighboring 2nd District). However, Banks' own Senate dreams gave Stutzman the opening he needed to return to the House, an opening he readily seized.
● IN-05 (R): Rep. Victoria Spartz fended off wealthy state Rep. Chuck Goodrich to win renomination 39-33 in a nine-way primary, a result that's likely to frustrate Republicans tired of dealing with the unpredictable congresswoman.
The incumbent, who announced she would retire in January last year, relaunched her reelection bid just three months before the primary, but a packed field of would-be successors helped split the anti-Spartz vote just enough for her to win with a plurality. After the most recent census, Republican mapmakers passed a new gerrymander to ensure that this constituency, which includes Indianapolis' northern suburbs and part of central Indiana, would remain safely red.
● IN-06 (R): Wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve defeated state Rep. Mike Speedy 28-22 in the primary, with businessman Jamison Carrier in third at 20%. While both Speedy and Carrier self-funded their respective bids, neither could come close to matching the $5.6 million that Shreve poured into his own effort.
Shreve is now on a glide path to replace retiring Rep. Greg Pence in a safely Republican seat that includes the southern and eastern Indianapolis area and part of east-central Indiana. Shreve's reversal in (political) fortune comes less than a year after he lost his bid to lead Indianapolis 59-41 against Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett after throwing down $13.5 million of his own money.
Pence, who is the older brother of Mike Pence, also almost certainly saw whatever chance he had of continuing his political career go down in flames on Tuesday. There was talk that the congressman could serve as the running mate for Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch should she win the primary for governor, an idea Pence never appeared to rule out.
However, while it's up to GOP delegates to pick the nominee for lieutenant governor on June 15, Crouch's decisive loss to Sen. Mike Braun leaves her with little ability to influence their choice.
● IN-08 (R): State Sen. Mark Messmer beat former Rep. John Hostettler, an iconoclast and antisemite who made numerous enemies in his party, 39-20 to win the Republican nomination to replace retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon.
This once-competitive southwestern Indiana constituency is now dark red turf, and Messmer will have no trouble in the fall. Hostettler's landslide loss in the 2006 general election made him the last incumbent to lose reelection in what was then nicknamed the "Bloody 8th" due to its propensity to change hands.
Senate
● NE-Sen-A, NE-Sen-B: Independent candidate Dan Osborn has publicized an internal poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that shows him trailing Republican Sen. Deb Fischer just 37-33 even as respondents favor Donald Trump 57-34. This is the first survey we've seen all year of the general election for a full six-year Senate term in Nebraska.
Osborn, who is a steamfitter and labor leader, has attracted national attention in a difficult contest where no Democrat is running. The candidate, who supports abortion rights but opposes a ban on assault weapons, told Politico last month, "I would like to create an independent caucus" in the Senate. The Nebraska Examiner wrote in March that the state Democratic Party is considering backing Osborn, though it has not yet made an endorsement.
Osborn, however, won't be Fischer's only foe in this dark red state. Two candidates from the Legal Marijuana NOW Party are competing in next week's primary (yes, there's a Legal Marijuana NOW primary for Senate, though no candidates are listed for any other offices), and the eventual nominee could cost Osborn support from left-wing voters.
Nebraska's other U.S. Senate seat is also up in November, but Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who was appointed to fill a vacancy last year, appears to have little to worry about in his bid for the remaining two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse's term.
Ricketts' only intra-party foe next week is an underfunded Air Force veteran named John Glen Weaver, who ran a little-noticed 2022 campaign in the 1st Congressional District. A GOP consultant recently told the Examiner that Weaver's bid to beat Ricketts was like "David vs. Goliath if David were fighting with a Fruity Pebble." Democrats are fielding a candidate for this contest, but civil rights activist Preston Love hasn't garnered anywhere near as much attention as Osborn has in the other Senate race.
● WI-Sen: Wisconsin TV stations have pulled an ad by a Republican super PAC that falsely accused Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of voting to "cut Medicare" after the attorneys for the DSCC pointed out that no such vote had ever taken place.
"Why else would Baldwin vote to cut Medicare and use that money for electric vehicle subsidies?" began the ad from Restoration PAC, which is largely funded by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. The spot doesn't cite a particular piece of legislation, but Democrats said the PAC was referring to Baldwin's vote in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act.
That bill, however, did not cut Medicare in any way. Rather, it allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices for the first time, which would save the program almost $300 billion. Medicare benefits would be unaffected. (The act also includes subsidies for buyers and manufacturers of electric vehicles.)
Restoration PAC was vulnerable to Democrats' takedown demand because television stations can be held liable for publishing defamatory statements by third-party groups—one of the few ways in which there can be accountability for lying in the political arena.
Candidates, by contrast, have much more leeway. Under federal law, broadcasters cannot refuse to air ads from candidates' campaigns as long as they're paid for. Consequently, stations can't be sued for defamatory ads from candidates because they have no choice but to run them. But since they face no such obligation when it comes to outside groups, stations must be more cautious, since they could find themselves hauled into court over false third-party advertisements.
Ultimately, Restoration PAC replaced the offending ad with a different version arguing the senator voted "to use Medicare money for electric vehicle subsidies, instead of seniors." The PAC also suggested it had made the swap "before the Democratic groups complained," according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
A Baldwin spokesperson, however, responded that the new ad was "just as false" as the initial one, according to the paper.
House
● LA Redistricting: A three-judge federal court panel has given Louisiana's Republican-controlled legislature until June 3 to adopt a new congressional map after the court's Trump-appointed majority ruled that lawmakers impermissibly relied on race when they enacted a new map in January that created a second Black-majority district.
However, Republican state Senate President Cameron Henry said it would be "impossible" to pass a new map during the regular legislative session and deemed a special session unlikely, per the Louisiana Illuminator's Piper Hutchinson.
If lawmakers fail to meet the June 3 deadline, the court said it would implement its own map the following day. Litigants and outside parties will have until May 17 to propose their own maps for the judges to consider at a May 30 hearing.
● MD-06: Del. Joe Vogel's allies at Equality PAC have publicized a late April survey from Public Policy Polling that shows him deadlocked 24-24 with former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney in next week's Democratic primary for Maryland's 6th District.
A 36% plurality are undecided, while the memo says that each of the other 14 candidates on the ballot is mired in the single digits. The Montgomery Perspective, which first reported on this survey, notes that it was conducted before Delaney earned the endorsement of the Washington Post, which remains influential in Montgomery County. (42% of the district's Joe Biden voters live in the county.)
This is the first poll we've here since mid-March, when a Vogel internal from GBAO found him trailing Delaney 17-10 in the primary to replace Democratic Senate candidate David Trone. The eventual nominee will be favored in a constituency that backed Joe Biden 54-44 in 2020.
● NH-02: The New Hampshire Union Leader's Kevin Landrigan tweeted Tuesday that Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander would "decide in the next few days" whether she'll join the Sept. 10 primary to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, a fellow Democrat.
● NJ-10: Former East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, who served as North Jersey political director for Rep. Andy Kim's Senate campaign, announced Tuesday that she was joining the July 16 special Democratic primary to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Don Payne.
The New Jersey Globe writes that Claybrooks won the Democratic nomination in 2019 for a seat on the East Orange Council after party leaders in Essex County awarded her the so-called organization line, but she did not appear on the primary ballot four years later following her fallout with those former allies.
"Not being offered the line, I think it was a blessing in disguise," Claybrooks said as she launched her congressional campaign. "I got the opportunity to go off and explore what it looked like for me to move in this government space in a way that was true to me and that did not call for me to be something less than the courageous person that I was."
Kim's Senate campaign was part of a successful lawsuit that barred Democrats from utilizing the county line system in this year's primaries.
● VA-05: American Patriots PAC has launched its first ad against Rep. Bob Good as part of what Bloomberg recently reported will be a massive $3 million buy ahead of the June 18 Republican primary. The spot accuses the incumbent of voting against funding for American soldiers and veterans' care facilities, but it does not mention Good's intra-party foe, state Sen. John McGuire
Ballot Measures
● NY Ballot: An amendment that supporters say would enshrine the right to an abortion into New York's constitution has been knocked off the November ballot by a state court judge, who ruled on Tuesday that lawmakers voted to refer the amendment to voters without first receiving a legally required opinion on the measure from state Attorney General Tish James.
James, a Democrat, immediately said her office would appeal. The measure, known as the New York Equal Rights Amendment, would protect a wide array of civil liberties. However, as state constitution law expert Quinn Yeargain has noted, its language regarding abortion is much more indirect compared with the very specific phrasing used in amendments designed to safeguard abortion rights in other states.
● SD Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative that would implement a top-two primary in South Dakota have turned in roughly 47,000 voter signatures for their proposed amendment. To qualify for November's ballot, 35,017 of those signatures must be valid. Republican Secretary of State Monae Johnson's office has an Aug. 13 deadline to verify them.
If the amendment qualifies and wins voter approval, it would abolish traditional party primaries for governor, Congress, state legislature, and county-level posts. It would replace them with one primary for each office where all candidates from all parties would compete on a single ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party, would advance to the general election. A similar system is currently used in California and Washington.
South Dakota is a dark red state where Democrats last won a statewide election in 2008, so GOP primaries—which are closed to non-Republicans—are often the only contests that matter. Organizers hope that a top-two primary would help elect more moderate candidates by allowing more voters to participate and make it easier for independents or moderates to run viable campaigns. Republicans strongly oppose the amendment, though Democrats have not formally taken a position.
Poll Pile
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
