Voters in four states choose their nominees Tuesday in a set of high-profile primaries, and at least two House Republicans in South Carolina appear to be in serious danger of getting booted by their party's voters.
Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch, as well as for a special election for a House seat in Ohio and an important ballot measure in North Dakota, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Maine, Nevada, Ohio, and South Carolina. North Dakota, which has only one congressional district, is also holding primaries.
You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!
South Carolina
Polls close at 7 PM ET. A June 25 runoff will take place in any primaries where no candidate earns a majority of the vote.
• SC-01 (R & D) (53-45 Trump): Rep. Nancy Mace faces former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton in one of the most expensive and closely watched Republican primaries in the nation. But a little-known candidate named Bill Young is also on the ballot, so his presence could be enough to keep either Mace or Templeton from securing the majority they'd need to avert a runoff.
After denouncing Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot, Mace experienced a close shave in 2022, winning her primary by a slender 53-45 margin over a Trump-backed opponent. But even before that near miss, she'd been seeking to repair her reputation with MAGA world.
She's since refashioned herself as an ardent supporter of Trump, who rewarded her with his endorsement (though the genuineness of that conversion has been called into question). Also in Mace's corner is Gov. Henry McMaster, who beat Templeton in the 2018 gubernatorial primary.
But Mace now has some powerful enemies she didn't have two years ago after she, along with seven other Republicans, voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership in October. Outside groups have deployed more than $5 million to attack the incumbent and promote Templeton, with most of it coming from a super PAC with ties to McCarthy's network. Templeton herself has focused on Mace's anti-McCarthy vote as a reason voters should eject her, while the congresswoman has labeled her foe "McCarthy's puppet."
Mace's allies have spent only about half as much as her adversaries. Most of that support has come from the far-right Club for Growth, which has its own off-again, on-again alliance with Trump. But Mace herself has helped make up the gap by outraising Templeton more than 3-to-1.
Following the most recent census, Republicans passed a gerrymandered map to make sure this district, which includes part of coastal South Carolina and the Charleston suburbs, would remain safely red, but a pair of Democrats are hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening. The primary pits businessman Michael B. Moore, who is a great-great-grandson of the legendary Civil War figure and Reconstruction-era Rep. Robert Smalls, against attorney Mac Deford.
• SC-03 (R) (68-31 Trump): Rep. Jeff Duncan announced his retirement in January after his estranged wife accused the congressman—a prominent social conservative and host of an annual "Faith and Freedom BBQ"—of infidelity in divorce proceedings. Seven fellow Republicans are now competing to replace him in the northwestern part of the state. With so many candidates on the ballot, a runoff is likely, though it's anyone's guess as to who might advance.
Trump is backing Mark Burns, a televangelist who was one of his more prominent surrogates in 2016. But Burns, who lost primaries to Rep. William Timmons in 2018 and 2022 in the neighboring 4th District, has attracted few donors and benefited from relatively little outside spending. However, he's using his own deep pockets to finance his newest effort.
Burns also has a long history of transphobia, election denial, and violent rhetoric. To take just one example, Burns called for the government to "start executing people who are found guilty for their treasonous acts." In the same jeremiad, he named Sen. Lindsey Graham, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and anyone who promotes "LGBTQ indoctrination" as some of the alleged traitors he'd like to see put to death.
Burns' two most prominent intra-party rivals are Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs and state Rep. Stewart Jones. Biggs has the support of McMaster, a longtime ally who has appeared in ads for her. She also has many of Duncan's former supporters in her corner, though the scandal-tarred incumbent has stayed out of the race to succeed him. Biggs has also benefited from over $300,000 in support from a group called the Elect Principled Veterans Fund.
Jones, a co-founder of the state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has had access to considerably less money than either Burns or Biggs, but one prominent group is hoping its investment will make up for that. Protect Freedom PAC has deployed almost $700,000 to help Jones, which includes ads starring Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul touting Jones as "a true defender of liberty."
The field also includes Kevin Bishop, a former Graham communications director who probably didn't expect to be running against an opponent who wants to murder his longtime boss.
• SC-04 (R) (58-40 Trump): Rep. William Timmons is trying to fend off state Rep. Adam Morgan, who chairs the state Freedom Caucus, in an ugly primary battle in the Greenville area. No one else is seeking the GOP nod, so this contest will be settled in the first round of voting.
Timmons, who has the support of both Trump and McMaster, has spent years dealing with rumors about an extra-marital affair. Those rumors likely contributed to Timmons' unexpectedly weak showing in the 2022 primary, when he took just 53% (the aforementioned Mark Burns was second with 24%).
Timmons has denied allegations that he'd used the powers of his office to conceal an affair, but he's never addressed whether one actually took place. He's continued to face uncomfortable questions about whether he'd been unfaithful to his wife, who filed for divorce later in 2022, and Morgan has eagerly drawn attention to the matter.
The incumbent has struck back with a message that's unheard of in a Republican primary, especially in South Carolina: The self-proclaimed "pro-life" congressman has aired ads arguing that Morgan went too far by promoting legislation that would "send rape and incest victims to jail for up to two years who ended their pregnancy."
Timmons' allies have spent close to $2 million to aid him, with most of that sum coming from the crypto-aligned super PAC Defend American Jobs. Morgan, by contrast, has benefited from about $300,000 in independent expenditures.
Ohio
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
• OH-06 (special) (64-35 Trump): Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli should have little trouble defeating his Democratic rival, Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak, in a special election to succeed Republican Bill Johnson, who resigned in January to become president of Youngstown State University. The two will compete again in the November contest for a full term representing this dark red seat in eastern Ohio.
Maine
Polls close at 8 PM ET. All primaries with three or more candidates will use an instant runoff if needed. Voters rank candidates in their order of preference. If no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes reassigned to their voters' next preferences.
• ME-02 (R) (52-45 Trump): Two Republican state representatives are competing to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in northern Maine, but national party leaders have made their preferences very clear.
Austin Theriault, who is a former NASCAR driver (his career-best performance in the NASCAR Cup Series was 32nd place), has the support of Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson. Theriault also enjoys a massive fundraising advantage over Mike Soboleski, who hasn't generated much attention. A Club for Growth affiliate, however, did spend $100,000 in the final days of the race on radio ads and text messages targeting Theriault.
North Dakota
The state allows polling places to close between 7 PM and 9 PM local time, but except for a handful of locations in Cass County that close at 8 PM, voting sites generally close at 7 PM. The Central Time Zone is home to 93% of North Dakota's residents, while the balance live in the Mountain Time Zone.
• ND-Gov (R) (65-32 Trump): Rep. Kelly Armstrong and Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller are facing off in the GOP primary to replace Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, who unexpectedly announced in January that he wouldn't seek a third term.
Armstrong, who represents the entire state in the House, posted massive leads in a trio of May polls against Miller, a first-time candidate who accepted Burgum's appointment as lieutenant governor less than two years ago. Trump went on to endorse Armstrong even though Burgum, who is a potential candidate for vice president, is pulling for Miller.
• ND-AL (R) (65-32 Trump): Four Republicans are on the ballot to replace Armstrong in North Dakota's lone House seat, and as in Armstrong's bid for governor, there's likewise a frontrunner in this contest. In late May, Trump joined Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. John Hoeven in supporting Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak.
Former state Rep. Rick Becker, a hardliner who challenged Hoeven as an independent in 2022, is Fedorchak's main foe, and he has the support of the Club for Growth and House Freedom Caucus. But while a pair of May polls taken before Trump's endorsement disagreed as to whether Fedorchak or Becker were ahead, the Club canceled its ads for the final week—an ominous sign for Becker's prospects.
Two other Republicans are also on the ballot, but they've been ignored by the outside groups that have collectively spent more than $2.5 million on this contest. (The amount is split roughly evenly between those helping Fedorchak and those pulling for Becker.) One of those candidates is former Miss America Cara Mund, an abortion rights supporter who challenged Armstrong as an independent in 2022. The final name belongs to former State Department official Alex Balazs.
• ND Ballot (65-32 Trump): North Dakota voters will decide on a proposed constitutional amendment that would bar anyone older than 80 from representing the state in Congress. This amendment, known as Initiated Measure 1, represents the latest attempt by conservative activists to place restrictions on congressional candidates that aren't found in the U.S. Constitution.
In 1995, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the only qualifications states could impose on congressional candidates were those spelled out in the nation's governing document: namely, a minimum (but not maximum) age, a minimum period of U.S. citizenship, and residency in the state (but not congressional district) they're seeking to represent at the time of election.
Conservatives, however, hope that the court's hard shift to the right over the ensuing three decades will give them the chance to at least partly overturn that earlier decision. Such a win, long sought by proponents of term limits, could open the door to dramatic changes affecting who could serve in Congress and for how long.
The North Dakota plan also includes one feature designed to go into effect in case the courts aren't so accommodating. The text of the amendment says that if the courts block the proposal's maximum age limit, an "advisory" would appear on the ballot next to the names of congressional candidates informing voters how old they'd be when their term would end.
Nevada
Polls close at 10 PM ET/7 PM local time.
• NV-Sen (R) (50-48 Biden): Barring a massive surprise, Army veteran Sam Brown should easily advance past the 12-person Republican field to face Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. Brown has posted huge leads in every credible primary poll that's been released, and his frontrunner status was further solidified Sunday when he picked up Trump's last-minute endorsement.
The primary also includes self-funder Jeff Gunter, who had a turbulent career as Trump's ambassador to Iceland, and Jim Marchant, an election denier who came close to winning the secretary of state's office in 2022 but has struggled in this contest.
• NV-01 (R) (53-45 Biden): Five Republicans are competing to face Democratic Rep. Dina Titus in the eastern Las Vegas area, and the two frontrunners are both people who failed to win office in 2022.
One of those contenders is Mark Robertson, a retired Army colonel who lost to Titus 52-46 following an expensive contest. Robertson, however, has struggled to raise money for his second attempt.
That's not a concern for Flemming Larsen, who lost a tight general election for the state Assembly two years ago. Larsen, who owns multiple restaurants in Southern California, has poured in $1.5 million of his own money for his new campaign.
This contest, like the other GOP House primaries in Nevada, has attracted no serious outside spending.
• NV-03 (R) (52-46 Biden): Two self-funders appear to have the inside track in the seven-way GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the southwestern Las Vegas area.
One of those contenders is Marty O'Donnell, who helped compose the soundtracks for several entries in the "Halo" video game series. O'Donnell has the support of Gov. Joe Lombardo in his first bid for office, which he's called a "side quest."
The more recognizable name to Nevada politicos, by contrast, belongs to Dan Schwartz, who was elected state treasurer in 2014 during the worst election cycle for Democrats in recent memory. But little has gone well for Schwartz since then, as he suffered a pair of landslide defeats in both the 2018 primary for governor and the 2020 primary for the last version of this district.
The field also includes conservative columnist Drew Johnson, who lost a tight race for the Clark County Commission last year but has struggled to compete financially against O'Donnell and Schwartz. Former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who had a brief career in the legislature more than a decade ago, is on the ballot as well.
• NV-04 (R) (53-45 Biden): The GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford was a pretty quiet affair until the final week of the contest when Trump gave his backing to former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, who'd previously spent more than a decade in the legislature as a conservative Democrat.
That endorsement came about even though Lee's main intra-party foe, Air Force veteran David Flippo, shared an April clip of the ex-mayor struggling to say whether a felony conviction would prompt him to abandon Trump. Far-right troll Laura Loomer also angrily pledged to "make sure Donald Trump sees this video," though if she's been successful, her efforts haven't had their desired effect.
An underfunded Republican named Bruce Frazey rounds out the field for this seat, which is based in the northern Las Vegas area but also includes a slice of rural Nevada.
• Las Vegas Mayor (54-44 Biden): Mayor Carolyn Goodman, an independent whose husband Oscar Goodman immediately preceded her in office, is termed out of the post she's held since 2011, and 14 candidates are on the officially nonpartisan ballot to replace her. Three of these contenders appear to have a shot to secure one of the two spots in the November general election, and the winner will become the first mayor from outside the Goodman family since 1999.
The most familiar name to national observers belongs to former Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, who was elected to the House in 1998 and lost a tight race against Republican Sen. Dean Heller in 2012. Ahead of launching her campaign last year, Berkley stepped down as an executive at Touro University Nevada.
The former congresswoman launched her effort nearly two years after another Democrat, City Councilman Cedric Crear, entered the race; Crear would be the first Black mayor of Nevada's largest city. Meanwhile, City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman, a hardliner who had a bad relationship with party leaders during her brief tenure in the legislature, is the most prominent Republican contender.
