The Obvious Ways that the Hunter Biden Convictions Change the Trump Situation

(I warned you they are obvious. They are based more on political than legal factors—judges weigh both.)

1. If the judge gives Hunter probation with no jail time, based in large part on Hunter being a “first time offender with no history of violence,” Justice Merchan is likely to weigh that as tilting toward a similar sentence for Trump

2. Similarly: if Hunter gets a prison sentence but it is suspended while he appeals, Trump is more likely to get the same

3. Conversely, if Hunter gets prison time (which I think is unlikely), Trump is more likely to also get prison time

4. Lightweights like Mitt Romney may suggest that Biden can best serve the nation by pardoning both Hunter and Trump. But Trump’s continuing claim of complete innocence makes that a non-starter