Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/14

by Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff Emeritus

Friday, Jun. 14, 2024 Friday, Jun. 14, 2024 at 5:59:07am PDT

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UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 9:27:46 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• LA-06: Republican Rep. Garret Graves finally surrendered to reality on Friday and announced that he would not seek reelection anywhere in Louisiana.

Graves' departure removes the last serious obstacle to Democrats flipping his revamped 6th District, though given its decisively blue lean, it would have been all but impossible for even the well-funded incumbent to hang on.

State Sen. Cleo Fields, who represented a very similar congressional district in the 1990s before it was dismantled by the courts, remains the only serious Democratic candidate with just over a month to go before the July 19 filing deadline.

But while plenty of Republicans had urged Graves to take one for the team and try to defend the 6th despite the fact that Joe Biden would have carried it by a 59-39 margin, they may not be very sad to see him go.

Axios' Juliegrace Brufke recently wrote that Graves, who reportedly spent weeks mulling challenges to fellow Republican Reps. Clay Higgins and Julia Letlow, had become "increasingly persona non grata in the GOP." One unnamed member even told Brufke that Graves "creates a lot of his own problems" and "literally goes out of his way to go after people."

It wasn't long ago, though, that Graves had looked like a rising star. After serving as an adviser to then-Gov. Bobby Jindal, Graves launched his congressional career by decisively besting a field jammed with fellow Republicans in the 2014 all-party primary to replace Rep. Bill Cassidy, who at the time was running for Senate.

Graves likewise had no trouble defeating former Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards, a legendary and controversial figure who still posed little threat in the conservative 6th District, in the ensuing runoff. The new congressman rapidly ascended the ranks in the House and emerged as one of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's top deputies last year.

Graves, though, soon set about alienating Republicans both at home and in Washington. After spending about a year considering whether to enter the 2023 race for governor, he instead recruited a candidate to oppose the frontrunner, GOP Attorney General Jeff Landry. Landry still won easily and, after a federal court ordered the state to draw a second congressional district to empower Black voters, the new governor made sure that district would come at Graves' expense.

Back in Washington, Graves saw his position erode following McCarthy's ouster—an event he did not seem to see coming: Not long beforehand, Graves told CNN, "I don’t think the speaker is even remotely concerned about some of the theatrics going on right now."

New Speaker Mike Johnson quickly booted Graves from a key leadership role, but the congressman also sabotaged himself by crossing another powerful lawmaker. Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who represents Louisiana's 1st District, told Politico last year that Graves had sought to undermine his ultimately unsuccessful bid for speaker by spreading false rumors about his health.

Graves managed to keep making enemies of fellow Republicans back home after the courts, despite his predictions to the contrary, allowed Louisiana's new congressional map to take effect. The congressman defiantly announced he'd seek reelection—somewhere. But what followed was weeks of speculation about whether Graves would defend the 6th or take on Letlow or Higgins, talk that only ended Friday when Graves made it clear he wouldn't run anywhere.

It's possible we haven't seen the last of Graves, though, because there's a Louisiana Republican who may have made even more enemies. Cassidy voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot, and there's been occasional speculation that Graves could challenge him in 2026. Cassidy, though, seems to be trying to ward off Graves or an even stronger opponent: On Thursday, he attended a closed-door meeting with Trump on Capitol Hill in what appeared to be an effort to make nice with his party's master.

UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 9:08:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Ad Roundup:

FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc)
MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D)
OH-Sen: One Nation - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc) ($4 million buy)
PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc) - anti-Dave McCormick (R)
GA-03: Brian Jack (R)
MI-10: Tiffany Tilley (D)
MO-03: Missouri Conservatives for Congress PAC - pro-Kurt Schaefer (R) and anti-Bob Onder (R)

UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 9:07:02 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

• CO-05: Colorado state GOP chair Dave Williams is continuing to take fire on the airwaves and within party gatherings ahead of his June 25 primary battle against conservative radio host Jeff Crank. Multiple county parties have called for Williams' ouster as chair after he used the state party's social media and email accounts earlier this month to send a virulently anti-LGBTQ+ message that called for burning Pride flags by referencing an infamous hate group's slogan.

Williams' campaign for the open 5th District in the Colorado Springs area has also struggled financially. He raised just $79,000 from April 1 through June 5, spent $56,000, and had just $148,000 left over. By contrast, Crank raised $205,000, spent $296,000, and had $137,000 remaining on June 6. The Colorado Sun also flagged that outside groups have spent roughly $2.3 million to oppose Williams or aid Crank. However, there's been negligible outside spending to help Williams win.

Nonetheless, Donald Trump's endorsement could still help the beleaguered party chair overcome Crank, who has the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson and retiring incumbent Doug Lamborn.

UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 8:25:48 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

• WI Ballot: Wisconsin Republicans have placed two little-noticed amendments on the Aug. 13 primary ballot that would strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers, continuing their long-standing efforts to hobble Ever that began even before he took office six years ago.

Democrats have urged voters to reject the two amendments, which would restrict Evers' ability to allocate funding without explicit approval from lawmakers. One would bar legislators from delegating authority over spending to the executive branch, a critical tool that gives officials leeway to address unforeseen issues. The other measure would prohibit the governor from dispensing federal funds without the legislature's permission.

Republicans commenced this latest effort largely in response to how Evers chose to spend billions of dollars in federal pandemic relief. GOP state Rep. Robert Wittke, who helped author the amendment, explained that it "would restore the balance in how we manage money coming in from the federal government, and take us back to the ‘30s, when we actually changed this because of the Great Depression."

In addition to their attempts to explicitly undermine Evers' authority, Republicans have conducted an unprecedented blockade of executive branch appointments by voting to fire his appointees and refusing to confirm others for key offices. such as the board that governs Wisconsin's university system.

This obstruction has left important positions vacant or occupied by appointees of former Gov. Scott Walker who have refused to leave office despite their terms expiring—a practice the state Supreme Court upheld before conservatives lost their grip on the court last year.

Although liberals gained a historic 4-3 majority on the court after 15 years in the wilderness, undoing the many measures Republicans implemented to sabotage Wisconsin's democracy will take years.

While the justices struck down the GOP's gerrymandered maps and ushered in much fairer lines for this fall's elections, Republicans will still enjoy their outsized majorities until next year. And they're virtually certain to hold the state Senate at least through 2026 because only half of the chamber's districts are up this year. In the likely event they retain control of the Senate, Republicans could continue to refuse to confirm Evers' appointees.

But thanks to the new maps, Democrats have a chance to win both legislative chambers in the near future. If they can also hold onto the governor's office, they would achieve unified control over Wisconsin's state government for the first time since Republicans took over after the 2010 midterm wave. But unless Evers secures a third term two years from now, he could spend his entire tenure as governor stymied by Republican obstructionism.

UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 8:00:35 PM +00:00 · David Nir

• MI-Sen: A super PAC created last year to boost former Rep. Mike Rogers is spending $1.3 million on ads featuring Donald Trump praising the ex-congressman ahead of the GOP's Aug. 6 primary, reports the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke.

The PAC, called the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, previously shelled out about $2.3 million on Roger's behalf in January but had gone quiet until now. The group's new spot comes after a barrage of attacks on Rogers from wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler, who, according to Burke, is spending at least $1 million on ads claiming the former lawmaker helped Hillary Clinton "cover up" U.S. actions in Benghazi.

Burke adds that Rogers has yet to air his own commercials.

• NJ-Gov: Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, who heads the powerful New Jersey Education Association, announced he would enter next year's Democratic primary for governor on Friday. Spiller joins a crowded field hoping to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy that is likely to grow even further. Spiller's labor ties have already provided him with one advantage, though: The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein notes that the NJEA has seeded a pro-Spiller super PAC with $2 million.

• FL-11: Former state Rep. Anthony Sabatini abandoned his challenge to Rep. Daniel Webster in Florida's Aug. 20 primary on Thursday, less than an hour after Donald Trump endorsed the incumbent. Sabatini, a hard-right extremist once dubbed a "legislative terrorist" by a Republican operative, said he would instead run for a seat on the Lake County Commission.

Webster survived a serious scare last cycle when far-right troll Laura Loomer held him to a shockingly close 51-44 win in the GOP primary for the conservative 11th District. Loomer claimed last year that she'd seek a rematch with Webster but later backed off and never filed to run. That leaves Webster with minimal intra-party opposition this year.

• FL-13: A mid-May internal poll from GQR conducted for Democrat Whitney Fox, a former official with the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, finds Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna with a 51-46 lead in the race for Florida's 13th District. Numbers for the presidential contest do not appear to have been released.

Republicans gerrymandered this district in the most recent round of redistricting, flipping it from a seat Joe Biden carried by 4 points to one Donald Trump would have won by 7. Fox is one of several Democrats seeking to take on Luna in November, though to date, she's been the best-funded contender and also has the support of Rep. Kathy Castor, who represents a neighboring seat.

• FL-15: Donald Trump on March 24: "Any great MAGA Republicans looking to run against Laurel Lee in Florida's 15th Congressional District? IF SO, PLEASE STEP FORWARD!"

Donald Trump on June 13: "Congresswoman Laurel Lee is an incredible representative for the fantastic people of Florida's 15th Congressional District. … Laurel Lee has my Complete and Total Endorsement!"

The rapid flip-flop might seem strange but it's not hard to understand: No serious challengers answered Trump's summons, so now he gets to pad his win-loss record by backing an all-but-guaranteed winner—but only in the primary. Lee isn't a sure bet in the general election against Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp, who has the Democratic field to herself in a seat Trump carried by a slender 51-48 margin four years ago.

• NY-16: It's vanishingly rare to see a seven-figure expenditure attacking an incumbent in a House primary and conclude it's not going to be especially meaningful, but it's just as unusual to encounter a race where total ad spending had already hit $18 million even before this latest foray.

In any event, the new onslaught comes from the pro-cryptocurrency group Fairshake, which AdImpact reports is heaping $2.1 million into the June 25 showdown between Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer.

Fairshake's ad hits familiar themes, going after Bowman for his embrace of conspiracy theories about 9/11 and his praise for a mural featuring a convicted cop killer that was displayed at the middle school where he served as principal before getting elected to Congress. It's not clear, however, why the cryptocurrency industry might be opposed to his candidacy or would prefer Latimer.

• UT-02: Rep. Celeste Maloy's three colleagues in Utah's House delegation—Blake Moore, John Curtis, and Burgess Owens—have all endorsed her ahead of her faceoff with Army Reserve Col. Colby Jenkins in the June 25 Republican primary. Normally it wouldn't be notable when incumbents endorse one another, but a much more prominent federal official from Maloy's home state, far-right Sen. Mike Lee, previously gave his backing to Jenkins.

That endorsement came just ahead of the GOP's April convention, which helped power Jenkins to a 57-43 win over Maloy—an outcome that nearly knocked Maloy off the primary ballot. Had she failed to hit 40%, Maloy's brief congressional career—which only began late last year after she won a special election—would have come to a quick end.

A PAC controlled by Lee has also spent about $180,000 for mailers on Jenkins' behalf, who's benefited from a total of around $230,000 in outside help so far. Maloy's fans, if she has any, have yet to step up, with Defending Main Street forking out less than $6,000 to aid her. Maloy has just about made up the gap herself, though, spending about $470,000 over the last two months, compared with about $230,000 from Jenkins.

• SC State Senate: Republican state Sen. Sandy Senn conceded her 31-vote loss to state Rep. Matt Leber in Tuesday's primary, telling election officials on Friday that she did not believe a recount was necessary. Senn was one of three Republican women in the Senate who helped block a near-total ban on abortion last year. Another, Penry Gustafson, was defeated in a blowout, while a third, Katrina Shealy, is headed to a runoff on June 25.

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Impact Research for Mark Farrell: Farrell: 23, London Breed: 21, Daniel Lurie: 20, Aaron Peskin: 17. In final round of simulated instant runoff: Farrel 57, Breed: 43. (All candidates are Democrats.)

UPDATE: Friday, Jun 14, 2024 · 3:55:58 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• Westchester County, NY District Attorney: Former Westchester County prosecutor Adeel Mirza announced Friday that he was dropping out of the June 25 Democratic primary and endorsing defense attorney William Wagstaff. Wagstaff faces former Judge Susan Cacace for the nomination to succeed retiring District Attorney Mimi Rocah, who supports Cacace, in this dark blue county.