Ohio has become a state that is very difficult for members of the Democratic Party to win. Other than some nonpartisan judges, Sen, Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat to win statewide in Ohio since 2011. That means that Brown is on borrowed time, and his political requiem could be made in 2024.
However, not all hope is lost yet. Brown has amassed a massive war chest of campaign funds, and he has already gone on the offensive with political ads targeting where Bernie Moreno (the GOP candidate) is weak. He is hoping that his record combined with disqualifying Moreno as a ‘man of the people’ will allow him another win in a very difficult state.
However, just going negative isn’t enough for Sen. Sherrod Brown. He also has a positive vision for the state of Ohio, respecting the “Dignity of Work”. He’s even brought in Ohio native Martin Sheen to narrate this positive spot about his vision for Ohio.
The question is whether or not Sen. Sherrod Brown can beat the odds against him and win another term in a state that is likely to be won by Trump once again.
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Sherrod Brown for OH-SEN
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS STATE A TOSSUP, with an R+6 PVI
2022 Senate election results for Ohio.
Ohio used to be a bellwether state that reliably predicted which presidential candidate would win the White House. No Republican nominee has won the Oval Office without winning Ohio. Ohio is seen as a microcosm of America and a crossroads of many different regions. It contains parts of the rural Midwest farm belt, the Rust Belt, Appalachia, and of course some huge urban areas.
In recent elections in my lifetime, Ohio went narrowly for W Bush twice — which rankles many Democratic activists to this very day (do NOT go into 2004 was stolen tirades please!). The disaster that was the second Bush administration allowed Obama to narrowly win the state in 2008, and things were looking rosy for the Democratic Party in Ohio.
2010 was a disaster for the Democratic Party in the state, and we really have not recovered from that blow. We lost many good representatives and the governor’s mansion as well. The Ohio GOP ruthlessly gerrymandered the state legislature and Congress so Democratic candidates in many places could no longer be competitive. The GOP has an iron grip on power in the state, and it has suffered accordingly. Obama won the state in 2012, but that seemed to be a last hurrah.
Ohio went further off of the rails when Trump ran for office. The state, along with Iowa, lurched very quickly to the right and came off the board early in the 2016 presidential race. Trump won the state by a near insurmountable 8-point margin. The 2018 blue wave barely touched the state, with DeWine winning the governor race and Sen. Sherrod Brown holding the Senate seat. Brown won through overperforming with the union vote and in the Rust Belt. He also did well with minority and women voters in his 2018 run.
Biden was thought to be competitive in 2020, but Trump won by the same 8-point margin. That led to most prognosticators writing off Ohio for the 2022 Senate race, even after Sen. Rob Portman retired. The 2022 Senate race in Ohio was highly enlightening, and it is why I think the GOP has a slight edge in this race. Rep. Tim Ryan was an above-average candidate and JD Vance a subpar one, but the lean of the state led to Vance winning. The great hope for Ohio is that Sen. Sherrod Brown can replicate the 2023 abortion referendum map, which was a resounding victory for abortion rights in the state. Without peeling off enough GOP pro-choice voters, Brown will lose as well.
Here's where races are won for us in the state of Ohio.
- Columbus Metro Area: Sen. Sherrod Brown needs the only growing metro area in the state on his side, and in a huge way. Previous margins from Franklin County aren’t enough, so Brown needs a bigger margin and higher percentage (likely above 67%) from here. He also likely needs to flip Delaware County to the north.
- Cleveland Metro Area: This metro area used to be the Democratic anchor of the entire state, but the calculus has changed. Brown will have to somehow get a higher percentage (70%) from this Cleveland, as well as flip voters in the suburban counties surrounding it. Lorain County to the west is a particular bellwether for Brown.
- Cincinnati Metro Area: Hamilton County has to come through for Brown with a high enough percentage (above 60%) and in raw margins of votes. The suburban counties surrounding Cincinnati may be the most critical in the state, with Brown needing to likely crack 35% in all three counties and maybe higher.
- Dayton Metro Area: Dayton may be smaller than the other three metro areas listed above, but it punches above its weight when it comes to elections. The city and suburbs are highly educated, and thus critical for the success of Brown statewide. He will need at least 53% in Montgomery County to have a chance, and he has to hold serve in the surrounding counties as well.
- Rust Belt — Youngstown, Akron, Toledo: These areas are where the unions held sway for such a very long time in the manufacturing facilities. With those jobs dead or dying, these areas have been trending to the right and some have even backed Trump. The Mahoning Valley (Youngstown) is critical in particular, as I don’t see Brown winning the state without it.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we will lose Ohio.
- Ohio River Valley: The counties in the southern portion of the state have never truly been in the Democratic column. Sure there were a few counties with factories and union voters, but most of this area hasn’t voted for our party since at least the days of Eisenhower. Brown cannot count on many votes in this area, so it is best he doubles down in the cities and suburbs.
- Northwestern Farm Belt: This belt extends from the Indiana border to north of Columbus. This area has never been friendly to Democratic candidates (well, at least not since FDR). Many of these counties vote upwards of 70% for the GOP, but Brown will have to cut into the margins here as well.
- Appalachia: This area used to favor Democratic candidates such as Sherrod Brown in the era of coal mining and unions, but those days are now in the past. Other than the university town of Athens, this area of the state is all about damage mitigation and scrounging for whatever voters are still willing to vote for Democratic candidates.
Who is Sen. Sherrod Brown?
Sen. Sherrod Brown is a populist liberal in a state that is increasingly authoritarian. Can he win in 2024?
Sen. Sherrod Brown was born in Mansfield, OH in 1952. He was an Eagle Scout and a political activist from an early age. He volunteered for the McGovern campaign in 1972, while also majoring in Russian Studies at Yale. Eventually, he also received a masters degree in education as well as an MPA from THE Ohio State University. He taught at the Mansfield branch of Ohio State in the late 1970s.
Brown has had a long political career, having been elected to the Ohio legislature starting in 1974(!) and then ascending to the Secretary of State position in 1982. His only political defeat came in 1990 to future Gov. Bob Taft. He moved to the western suburbs of Cleveland and restarted his political career in the House of Representatives in 1992. He served in that body until leveling up to the Senate in the blue wave of 2006. He has since faced electorates favorable to Democratic candidates every six years. He hasn’t shared a ballot with Trump until this year.
This issues section is thanks to both his campaign website and various other links backing up the information. He is widely seen as a liberal populist. Whether that is anathema to Ohioans now remains to be seen.
- Fair Trade Fighter. Brown is the foremost opponent of free trade deals in the Senate. He claims that these deals have decimated the Rust Belt and hollowed out the middle class. He has criticized NAFTA numerous times, and has tanked the trade agendas of both Democratic and Republican presidents, including the trade agenda of Joe Biden. He generally supports tariffs, even the ones proposed by Trump. He also agrees with Trump that China is a currency manipulator and that our trade status with them is a ‘disaster’.
- Labor Leader. Concurrent with his position on free trade is a super strong commitment to labor issues while in Congress. Brown is one of the foremost sponsors of the PRO Act, which would help workers collectively bargain and protect their rights. He would protect against wage theft and those who would cheat workers of overtime pay. Finally, he would beef up worker safety provisions through OSHA.
- Wall Street Accountability. Brown is a populist at heart, and that puts him at odds with Wall Street quite frequently. He called for an investigation into the finance industry after the Panama Papers were leaked, and led the hearings after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. He is looking to pass a tax on stock buybacks by corporations as well.
- Bring Back Manufacturing. Brown is trying to get cutting-edge manufacturing facilities to locate in Ohio. He helped block the acquisition of US Steel by a foreign company. He has touted the CHIPS and Science Act as a driver for Intel to locate a plant there. He is calling on the Biden administration to locate a Tech Hub in Akron.
- Health Care Helper. Brown has been supportive of Medicare for All in the past. He was a critical vote in the passage of the ACA, making sure it got through the reconciliation process in the Senate. In more recent times, Brown has focused on helping those with Black Lung Disease receive pensions and better health care. He has also focused on his bipartisan effort to stop fentanyl trafficking, the FEND Off Fentanyl Act.
- Abortion Rights Ally. Brown better lean heavily into abortion rights as a campaign issue given that the state protected those rights just last year. He would vote to codify Roe v. Wade into law, along with birth control, contraception, and IVF protections into law. He would even ditch the filibuster to enshrine those protections into law.
- Education Advocate. Brown has tried to enshrine accountability for charter schools into law numerous times. He praised the “Red for Ed” movement in early 2018, and has been a friend to teachers throughout his political tenure. He has been working on promoting workforce training at community colleges and lower cost options for those seeking higher education.
- Gun Safety Champion. Brown has criticized gun manufacturers for undue political influence through the NRA. He has frequently criticized the Ohio state legislature for loosening gun laws such as concealed carry. He supported and continued Sen. Murphy’s filibuster attempt to block all legislation until gun safety was addressed. Every time gun safety policy has come up for a vote, Brown has voted in favor of it.
- Equal Rights for All. Brown has consistently championed the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans, even when it was politically unpopular to do so. He also has a strong record of supporting the rights of African Americans and other minority groups. He helped establish My Brother’s Keeper in Ohio, a network of community-based chapters dedicated to improving outcomes for young men of color across the state.
- Foreign Policy Focus. Brown tends to be dovish in foreign policy, though he does support the efforts to fund the War in Ukraine. Brown generally prefers to sanction bad actors instead of declaring a military action. He voted against the USA Patriot Act, along with the AUMF that authorized the War in Iraq. He urged the Trump administration not to scrap the nuclear deal with Iran.
Who is Bernie Moreno?
Bernie Moreno is a used car salesman and a Trump acolyte. That may not damage him in Ohio though.
Bernie Moreno was born in Colombia to a high-ranking government official. The family emigrated to Fort Lauderdale, FL, where Moreno became a citizen at the age of 18. Moreno earned a business degree from the University of Michigan and joined General Motors upon graduation. He started with a single car used car dealership in Boston which eventually spanned into the Collection Auto Group, a large car dealership company. He sold his stake in that company to found a blockchain company.
Moreno had an aborted run for the other Senate seat in 2022 but dropped out at the behest of Donald Trump. In return, Trump endorsed his 2024 Senate run which led to him winning the primary vote. Many of his old positions have been jettisoned in favor of more MAGA positions.
- Liar, Liar. Moreno has lied about his upbringing and his family, claiming that they “left everything behind” to emigrate to America. This isn’t true, as many family members have prominent roles in Colombia, and his own nuclear family lived a comfortable existence while he was a youth in Florida. His family has many prominent friends from those days, including the Clintons and former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.
- Trump Acolyte. Moreno once described Trump as a ‘lunatic invading the GOP’, and that he could not support a party controlled by ‘that maniac’. He even claims to have written in Marco Rubio for President in 2016! Like almost every other member of the GOP, Moreno kissed Trump’s ring in a quest for political power, with him being proudly endorsed by Trump for his 2024 run for the Senate.
- Used Car Salesman. Moreno is your typical used car salesman with business skeletons in the closet. He has faced several discrimination lawsuits in his time, though they have been amicably resolved. He has also settled many wage theft accusations in court for undisclosed sums, and he even shredded documents in an attempt to avoid accountability.
- Economic Extremist. In addition to the foibles above, Moreno has come out against the minimum wage. According to him, good businessmen give good wages and benefits and attract good talent. He argues that the market will flush that out, instead of the truth that corporations will start a race to the bottom of the wage scale.
- Forced Birth Maniac. Moreno has stated in the past that he is against abortion “100%, without exceptions”. He claims for this campaign he supports a 15-week national ban, as well as the usual exceptions. Moreno also claims he is “for contraception”, but against funding for Planned Parenthood.
- Immigration Hardliner. This is particularly rich, coming from him. Moreno has called for an end to birthright citizenship, as well as the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. This is after encouraging a pathway to citizenship in 2016 to “help them come out of the shadows”. But now, he is an immigration hardliner who can’t wait to build Trump’s border wall and militarize the border. He trashed the border security bill that had bipartisan support.
- LGBTQ+ Flip-Flopper. Moreno has expressed support for the LGBTQ+ community in the past, even helping host the 2014 Gay Games in Cleveland. However, he now accuses the LGBTQ+ community of ‘indoctrination of children’, which is much more in line with the Trumpian view. The kicker? His eldest son is gay! Then there was this puzzling incident no one has adequately explained regarding a gay dating website.
- Election Denier. Moreno started his political career by criticizing Trump for his role in 2020 election denial. When he sought official office, his tune quickly changed. He came out as an election denier in 2021 when running for the other Senate seat. His strategy for dealing with election denial in 2024? 🤷♂️
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Once again, Moreno has flip-flopped on an issue in the name of political expediency. He previously voiced support for background checks, and even quipped “What gun do you need with 100 bullets in it?” He now is in thrall to the NRA, stating that those past positions aren’t what his position is today.
- Repealing the ACA. In spite of the popularity of the Affordable Care Act these days, all three GOP Senate candidates, including Moreno, agreed that the repeal of the ACA was a political goal of theirs if they get to Congress. That means no coverage of pre-existing conditions, a return of unaffordable policies, and more.
- Abandoning Allies. Moreno has expressed support for Israel and Ukraine in the past. That all changed when he ran for office. He now argues against any more funding for Ukraine against Russia, and he even argues that Israel does not need any additional funding from the United States.
- Unemployment Hypocrite. Bernie Moreno has shamed people who take unemployment in the past — especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Audio from that period unearthed shows that Moreno took out PPP loans during the pandemic as well, faulting the government for closing down his auto dealerships to make him resort to such measures.
How Can You Help?
If Sen. Sherrod Brown is to pull this feat of winning a Trump state, it will take all of us chipping in to help. That doesn’t necessarily mean donations or volunteering, though both would be extremely helpful. Even something as simple as boosting Sen. Sherrod Brown on social media could make a difference in such a tight race.
In terms of fundraising, Sen. Sherrod Brown really has turned in some amazing quarters. He certainly isn’t going down without a fight! He raised a staggering $11.68M in Q1 (Q2 ends today), and he is only just getting started! Bernie Moreno raised $2.14M and lent his campaign $1.5M for a combined haul of $3.64M in Q1. Brown has a massive cash-on-hand advantage as well, to the tune of nearly $16M versus only $1.77M. Hopefully Sherrod spends it on contacting every pro-choice voter in the state!
What may make or break the re-election chances of Sherrod Brown are the number of volunteers his campaign can attract. Certainly the ad campaign will be important, but it is this old-fashioned voter contact that will make the difference. The 2023 abortion referendum results should give him an accurate list of who to contact and who is persuadable in the state. Join his campaign and Save our Senate today!
Sen. Sherrod Brown definitely has a robust following on social media! His official Twitter account has an amazing 489.5k followers on it, and his official Facebook account has an unheard of 178k followers as well. He’s highly active on both accounts, sharing exactly what he does to help Ohioans out.
For instance, he met recently with United Steelworkers to assure them he is still fighting against the trade deals that hollowed out the Rust Belt.
He also is attempting to tackle the opioid crisis head-on by going after those responsible for importing this poison into our nation.
Brown’s campaign accounts also have amazing follower counts, with 238k on Facebook and 95k on Twitter. It’s clear his communications team is successful in getting their messaging out. He has been busy showing support from critical constituencies and the nuts and bolts of campaigning. I hope he switches over to attack mode on Moreno soon as well.
Brown has recently opened up a field office in Cincinnati, a critical area for his chances.
Brown is also leading this fight against shrinkflation as well as his larger fight for corporate accountability!
Help spread the word today by following Sen. Sherrod Brown and boosting his campaign in the critical realm of social media.
The math to keep the Senate is very clear — lose this race and we likely lose the Senate. We’ve already all but lost a seat in West Virginia meaning we have no margin for error. Sen. Sherrod Brown MUST win this race, or we can kiss judicial and executive appointments goodbye, along with any hope of decent second-term legislation (should Biden win a second term). We have a couple of realistic chances to flip seats if Brown loses, but they are longshots at best.
Bernie Moreno in a lot of ways has the easier task ahead of him. He just has to replicate the GOP playbook from 2022 and allow Trump to carry him on his coattails. Allow the people of Ohio to continue their march to authoritarianism, and choose to eject Brown for being out of step with the new Ohio. That should be enough to eke out a narrow win for most challengers against an embattled incumbent.
However, this is a reminder that Sen. Sherrod Brown is no ordinary incumbent. He’s faced long odds before and beaten them. The question is whether or not he can beat the odds and earn one more Senate term .
Sherrod Brown for OH-SEN
Official Senate Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube | DONATE | Volunteer
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