• CO Ballot: Democratic Gov. Jared Polis has signed a bipartisan bill that could prevent a potential ballot measure seeking to adopt a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election from going into effect until certain conditions are met—which might be never. However, Polis claimed he would "take prompt and good faith actions to successfully implement the will of the voters" if voters approved the proposal, and leading legislators from both parties took a similar position.
The initiative itself is still a work in progress. Proponents have filed multiple versions with the secretary of state's office, but one of the leading options would abolish separate party primaries and have every candidate run on a single primary ballot. The top four candidates regardless of party would advance to a November general election that would be decided using ranked-choice voting. This reform would be similar to the one that voters in Alaska approved in 2020 and first used last cycle.
However, the new law Polis just approved prevents ranked-choice voting from being used in federal and state-level elections until local governments in at least a dozen counties that meet certain demographic criteria adopt it for their own elections. The secretary of state would also need to analyze its impact, including how it might affect "historically under-represented communities."
Some of these local governments, however, are in heavily conservative areas. Because Republicans across the country have broadly opposed ranked-choice voting, it's possible that the new law's conditions may never be met.
Backers of the top-four primary and RCV general election have until Aug. 5 to gather roughly 124,000 voter signatures to qualify for November's ballot. As a statutory measure, it would need just a simple majority of voter support to become law, unlike constitutional amendments, which require 55%. However, some of these proposals have been tied up in litigation until recently, delaying supporters from beginning to gather signatures.
The reform effort has largely been led by wealthy former healthcare CEO Kent Thiry, who previously considered running for governor as a Republican in 2018. Thiry has spent big on successful ballot initiatives that he's claimed would empower centrist voters, including creating an independent redistricting commission and opening party primaries to unaffiliated voters.
However, Thiry may have another motive this time: Should his proposal be adopted, it could allow him to run for governor on a center-right platform and avoid a Republican primary dominated by far-right voters.
• NV-Sen: The GOP firm Noble Predictive Insights has conducted a new poll that finds Army veteran Sam Brown with a blowout 53-15 lead over former diplomat Jeff Gunter going into Tuesday's Republican primary. Noble tells Daily Kos Elections that the poll wasn't conducted for any client. These results are very similar to Brown's 52-14 edge in an internal poll that the Tarrance Group conducted for his campaign last month.
Brown is the favorite of national and state Republicans, while Gunter has self-funded millions for ads that don't appear to have had a significant impact. The winner will take on Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in this swingy state.
• AZ, FL, & NV Ballots: The Democratic firm Beacon Research and the GOP outfit Shaw & Company Research have polled three swing states for Fox News and find amendments to enshrine abortion rights easily passing even though Donald Trump leads in each state.
In Arizona, voters back a proposed amendment 70-27 while Trump leads Joe Biden 51-46 in a two-way race and 46-41 with third parties included. If the proposal qualifies for November's ballot, as appears likely, it would need a simple majority to become law.
Meanwhile, in Nevada, abortion rights supporters recently submitted signatures for an amendment to enshrine access in the state constitution, and the poll finds it passing 73-22 while Trump leads Biden 50-45 in a two-way race and 45-40 with third parties in the mix.
Finally, in Florida, where an abortion rights amendment has already qualified for the ballot, respondents support it 69-27 despite favoring Trump 50-46 in a two-way matchup and 47-40 with third parties added in. The same poll also finds an amendment to legalize marijuana passing by a 66-32 margin. Unlike the other two states, Florida requires a 60% supermajority to approve constitutional amendments.
All three states also have major Senate elections this fall, but these releases did not include any results for those races.
