The media feeding frenzy ignores the marginal effects of the debate on serious polling, but the Election Day sweep of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is not yet out of reach. Party discipline may be continuing to erode as the Democratic party still discusses the concrete and abstract aspects of the pre-convention assessment of campaign success.
President Biden appears, for now, to have stalled the Democratic coup triggered by his disastrous debate performance — but at a potentially massive cost.
Why it matters: If Biden remains the nominee and loses to former President Trump in November, as many Democrats privately and publicly believe he will, the failed rebellion will haunt the party for years.
Driving the news: Cook Political Report moved six states toward Trump in its Electoral College ratings Tuesday, citing Biden's decline in national and private battleground polls shared by both Democratic and GOP sources.
The big picture: Heading into the debate, Biden was already a historically unpopular incumbent with a narrow path to winning 270 electoral votes.
- It was the Biden campaign that requested the debate in June — the earliest in U.S. history — in a strategic bid to reset the race and draw national attention to Trump's flaws.
- The gamble backfired in spectacular fashion, redirecting scrutiny to Biden's biggest vulnerability — his age — and setting off widespread calls for him to drop out for the first time all campaign.
Zoom in: Two weeks into the post-debate meltdown, Democrats have found themselves in arguably the worst of all scenarios.
- Biden, with an approval rating hovering around 37%, is weaker and more politically vulnerable than ever. But he insists he's not going anywhere.
- The Democratic Party is fractured and demoralized. Its leaders have closed ranks around Biden, but the enthusiasm is gone. Many Democrats fear Biden could cost them enormously down-ballot.
- Dissenters — even Democratic celebrities like the "Pod Save America" crew of former Obama aides — have been tarnished as "Trump enablers" for questioning whether Biden should continue.
- From now until the election, Biden's every fumble or stumble will risk reigniting a news cycle about his age. It's a vulnerability that will never disappear — and can only get worse with time.
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