• DE-Gov: An outside group called Citizens for a New Delaware Way announced Tuesday that it would spend money to defeat Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for governor, and it soon released an internal poll from Slingshot Strategies to argue that she's beatable.
The survey, which is the first we've seen in almost six months, shows Hall-Long deadlocked 27-27 against New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, with National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara taking 7%. A 34% plurality are undecided, while the remaining 5% opt for "someone else."
Citizens for a New Delaware Way pledged to spend “upwards of $1 million” during the primary and general elections, though it hasn't said how much it plans to commit specifically to the primary to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. John Carney. The organization, which says it "promotes transparency, accountability, diversity, and inclusion in Delaware's state government and court system," declared it was targeting Hall-Long because of what it called her "failure to support judicial diversity."
• WA-04: Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, has launched an ad attacking an intraparty foe ahead of the Aug. 6 top-two primary—but not the one endorsed by Trump.
The congressman's target instead is Tiffany Smiley, who was the party's 2022 nominee against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. His spot, which appears to be his first negative commercial for his reelection bid for the 4th District, does not mention Trump's choice, former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler.
Newhouse's spot features a cast of local voters in central Washington arguing that Smiley "deceived" her Republican donors following her defeat last cycle. "Tiffany Smiley started a PAC claiming to raise money to support conservative candidates," one member of the cast declares, "but contributions were funneled to pay off her own multimillion-dollar campaign debt."
Smiley raised $20 million for her bid against Murray for a contest that, according to several conservative pollsters, had a real chance to succeed in an otherwise blue state. Despite those optimistic numbers, though, the Republican finished with a 57-43 loss and $1 million in unpaid bills for her consulting firm.
Smiley took to conservative media a few months later to announce the launch of a group called Endeavor PAC to aid "political outsiders," and she pledged that "every dollar amount goes directly towards helping candidates." The Seattle Times' Jim Brunner, however, went on to report that donations to the group were directed toward paying off her remaining debt.
Brunner noted that Endeavor PAC's website did accurately explain how donations would be prioritized—albeit in the "eighth paragraph of tiny print on the PAC’s donation page."
"If you are not familiar with this stuff, it all looks like a bunch of gobbledygook," said OpenSecret's Brendan Glavin, who nonetheless agreed that Smiley appeared to be adhering to campaign finance law.
Smiley, for her part, recently debuted her own commercial where she argues that voters can "secure our border and make life affordable again by picking better people to fight for us in Congress." The challenger, though, neither mentions Newhouse or alludes to his 2021 impeachment vote. Sessler, meanwhile, does not appear to have launched any TV ads yet.
While no one has released any polling here, there's reason to think that the general election could feature two of these three Republicans. Trump carried the 4th District 57-40 in 2020, and the three candidates campaigning as Democrats could split the left-leaning vote too much for any of them to advance. (This does not include John Malan, a perennial candidate who will be listed on the ballot as a "MAGA Democrat.")
No public polls indicate if Newhouse is well-positioned to secure a spot in November or if he's in danger of suffering an August knockout. There has been little outside spending to either boost the congressman or attack him, though this could change during the final weeks of the contest.
Until two years ago, no incumbent had ever failed to advance out of a top-two primary in the Evergreen State, but Newhouse's former colleague Jaime Herrera Beutler made history the hard way. Like Newhouse, Herrera Beutler supported impeaching Trump, who responded by endorsing her MAGA-flavored challenger, Army veteran Joe Kent, in the 3rd District. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez consolidated the Democratic vote, while Kent narrowly edged past Herrera Beutler, only to lose to Gluesenkamp Perez in an upset in the fall.
Herrera Beutler was one of the eight pro-impeachment Republicans who either retired following their vote or lost renomination. The only two members of the GOP caucus who crossed Trump but held their seats were Newhouse and California Rep. David Valadao, who is a top Democratic target this fall.
• WA-06: State Sen. Emily Randall has publicized an endorsement from former Gov. Christine Gregoire, a fellow Democrat who led Washington from 2005 to 2013, ahead of the Aug. 6 top-two primary for the 6th District.
