The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● UT Redistricting: The Utah Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that state lawmakers acted improperly when they gutted a measure to reform redistricting that voters adopted at the ballot box in 2018. However, the court's inexplicable yearlong delay in issuing a decision ensures that the Beehive State's congressional map will remain unchanged for the November elections, and it still does not guarantee that new boundaries will be in place next cycle.
Six years ago, voters narrowly approved Proposition 4, a measure Democrats hoped would prevent Republicans from passing a new congressional gerrymander that would make all four of Utah's seats safely red. Proposition 4 required that new congressional and legislative maps follow several rules, including that boundaries couldn’t unduly favor or disfavor any particular party or candidate on purpose, and must minimize the number of divided counties and municipalities.
The GOP-led legislature, though, worked to make sure that this referendum didn't prevent it from implementing the gerrymander it wanted. In 2020, it approved a bill that, while not outright repealing Proposition 4, eliminated most of the protections it put in place.
Sure enough, the legislature passed such a map the following year, dividing Salt Lake County—a rare source of Democratic strength in this red state—between all four congressional districts. Several groups filed a lawsuit in 2022 arguing that lawmakers exceeded their power by dramatically altering Proposition 4, and their case went to the state Supreme Court the following year.
However, while the Associated Press' Sam Metz wrote that justices "appeared skeptical" of the state's defense following oral arguments, it would take exactly a year to the day for Utah's highest court to issue an opinion. The long and unexplained wait means that the current congressional districts will remain in use for 2024―and that Republicans are all but assured to once again win all four seats this fall.
The unanimous decision, when it finally arrived on Thursday, declared that lawmakers had erred by altering Proposition 4, though this still isn't the end of the matter. The justices instead ordered that the matter go back to a lower court for even more litigation. However, an attorney for the plaintiffs expressed optimism that new―and fair―congressional boundaries could be in place in time for the 2026 elections.
2Q Fundraising
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OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $12.8 million raised, $10.7 million cash on hand
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TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D): $10.5 million raised, $10 million cash on hand
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CA-45: Michelle Steel (R-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.8 million cash on hand; Derek Tran (D): $1.3 million raised
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IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D): $1.3 million raised
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MT-01: Monica Tranel (D): $1.15 million raised
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NJ-07: Tom Kean (R-inc): $950,000 raised, $3 million cash on hand
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NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc): $910,000 raised; Josh Riley (D): $1.8 million raised, $4 million cash on hand
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WI-08: Kristin Lyerly (D): $891,000 raised
House
● AZ-03: Analyst Rob Pyers flags that former state Sen. Raquel Terán has been the beneficiary of almost all of the outside spending that's taken place for the July 30 Democratic primary for Arizona's safely blue 3rd District.
Outside groups have so far deployed almost $1.8 million to boost Terán, while only a little more than $230,000 has gone to help her main intraparty rival, former Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari. Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin notes that Ansari's campaign had considerably more money at the end of March, but we'll need to wait another week for updated reports.
The largest pro-Terán organization is Victory PAC, which has received funding from both the progressive Working Families Party and the United Food & Commercial Workers Local 99. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Congressional Progressive Caucus are among the other organizations that are spending to help Terán.
The one pro-Ansari group that's logged independent expenditures, by contrast, is a group called the Save America Fund. Whoever wins this month's primary should have no trouble succeeding Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego—who is running for Senate—in this seat based in downtown and western Phoenix.
● IA-03: Politico has obtained a late June internal poll for Democrat Lanon Baccam from GQR that shows him deadlocked 43-43 against freshman Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa's 3rd District. The memo for this survey, which is the first polling we've seen of this contest, did not include 2024 presidential numbers for a constituency that Donald Trump took by a slim 49.3-48.9 margin four years ago.
● MN-07: Rep. Michelle Fischbach has publicized a late June internal poll from Cygnal that shows her a wide 64-14 advantage over businessman Steve Boyd ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primary for Minnesota's dark red 7th District. The memo for this poll, which was shared by the political tipsheet Minnesota Morning Take, says that a previously undisclosed poll showed Fischbach with a similar 61-14 edge. We've seen no other numbers from this constituency, which is based in the western part of the state.
Boyd unexpectedly prevented Fischbach from winning the GOP's official endorsement at a party convention in April, but there hasn't been any indication that he's capable of denying her renomination next month.
● NJ-10: Democratic leaders from the 10th District's three counties have announced that they'll meet July 18 to select a nominee for a full term in the next Congress. This gathering will occur two days after the special Democratic primary for the remaining months of the late Rep. Don Payne's term, and it would be a surprise if party leaders select a different person.
● NY-22, VA-07: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Thursday added state Sen. John Mannion and former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman, who each won their respective Democratic primaries last month, to its “Red to Blue” program for top candidates. Their inclusions were no surprise, as outside groups from both parties plan to spend plenty of money to win both New York's 22nd District and Virginia's 7th.
Ballot Measures
● AR Ballot: Republican Secretary of State John Thurston told Arkansans for Limited Government on Wednesday that its proposed abortion-rights amendment could not move forward because he'd disqualified its signatures on technical grounds. AFLG said in response, "We will fight this ridiculous disqualification attempt with everything we have."
AFLG submitted over 101,000 signatures ahead of last week's deadline, and needed election officials to both validate 90,704 of them and confirm the campaign met certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties.
Thurston, though, declared this wouldn't be necessary because AFLG failed to file the requisite statements identifying its paid signature collectors, whom he says gathered more than 14,100 signatures. The secretary of state added that even if he accepted that the other signatures came from volunteers, AFLG would still fall over 3,300 below the statewide minimum.
AFLG issued its own statement saying it had "worked with the Secretary of State’s office during every step of the process to ensure that we followed all rules and regulations," and that it never had reason to think there was a problem before Wednesday. AFLG also made it clear it didn't see Thurston's rejection as the end, saying, "We will not back down."
However, there's reason to be pessimistic about a legal appeal. The Arkansas Supreme Court in 2020 rejected the arguments of three ballot measure campaigns after Thurston determined their signature gatherers had not "passed" the criminal background checks required under state law. A federal court later declined to intervene.
David Couch, an attorney who worked on those campaigns, tells the Arkansas Advocate that Thurston made "a very analogous argument" to the one he successfully used four years ago.
● ID Ballot: The Idaho Secretary of State’s office announced Wednesday that an initiative to establish a top-four primary with a ranked-choice general election will appear on Idaho's general election ballot.
This plan would replace the Gem State's partisan primaries with the same type of system that was pioneered in Alaska in 2022. All candidates, regardless of party, would compete in one primary, and the four contenders with the most votes would advance to an instant-runoff general election. The measure would apply to races for Congress, the governorship and other statewide offices, the state legislature, and county posts, though it would not impact presidential elections or contests for judicial office.
It would take only a simple majority of voters to approve the initiative on Nov. 5, but that likely wouldn't be the end of the battle. While a win would repeal a law the legislature passed last year to bar ranked-choice voting, the Idaho Capital Sun previously noted that legislative Republicans could try to pass a new bill to repeal it all over again.
● NY Ballot: New York's top court has rejected an appeal from Republicans seeking to keep a measure known as the Equal Rights Amendment off the November ballot. However, Gothamist's Jon Campbell says that the Court of Appeals ruled only that Republicans are not entitled to automatically have their appeal heard and could still ask the court to grant them permission to appeal. Still, Campbell characterized this as a "legal longshot."
The amendment would offer a broad array of new civil rights protections for New Yorkers, which supporters say includes the right to an abortion.
Poll Pile
Ad Roundup
