This district is one of the seats that tends to decide who controls the House of Representatives. Since the year 2000, it has belonged to the party that held the levers of power in every election except the 2006 blue wave. The district swings nearly every election, with seven different representatives - five members of the GOP and two Democrats.
Cook Political Report describes the competitiveness of the district as such:
Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Virginia's 2nd the 212th most Republican district nationally.
After some maps in other states changed, Virginia’s 2nd district is now the median district for the 2024 election. 217 districts are more friendly to the GOP, and 217 districts are more friendly to the Democrats.
Biden would have won 224 districts on the 2024 map, compared with 211 for Trump, but the president's margin in the median district, Virginia's 2nd, would have been just 1.9 points. Since Biden won the national popular vote by a wider margin of 4.5 points, the median district would have been (after rounding) 2.5 points to the right of the nation as a whole.
This district is critical for taking back the House, yet our nominee is relatively unknown in political circles. Can Missy Cotter Smasal win as a Democratic candidate in a closely divided district?
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Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia-2
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What’s the Big Idea?
County results for VA-02 in 2022. Rep. Jen Kiggans narrowly flipped this district to the GOP.
THIS RACE LEANS REPUBLICAN, with an R+2 PVI
This district in the Hampton Roads area has been a Republican-leaning swing seat for a while now. It usually elects conservative but not MAGA Republicans and moderate Democrats. The incumbents are usually tossed in wave elections, such as 2010 or 2018.
That’s how the previous representative, Rep. Elaine Luria, got to Congress. She was a moderate Democratic member of Congress, and she represented the district well. She survived a close election in 2020, but 2022 and a tougher district was a bridge too far for her.
Rep. Jen Kiggans flipped this district by a 51.6% to 48.2% margin, or about 10,000 votes. Joe Biden won this district 50.1% to 48.2%, which signifies that it is a swing district. Glenn Youngkin won this district easily during the 2021 governor election, and Kiggans’ margin of victory was right in between those two different elections. If Biden wins here, Cotter Smasal has a chance. If the district flips back to Trump, Kiggans will be a favorite to win here.
Here’s where the 2nd district race will be won.
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Virginia Beach: This conservative big city is the anchor of the district, and it barely voted for Biden after voting for Trump in 2016. Democratic Gov. Northam won this city in 2017, but GOP Gov. Youngkin easily won the city in his 2021 run, which shows that this swingy area is very elastic. Cotter Smasal must convince people to pull the lever for her, or she will lose.
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Chesapeake: The majority Black precincts have mostly been carved out of the district, but it is important that Cotter Smasal maintain the narrow Biden margin from 2020 in this city. Once again, Youngkin cleaned up in this part of the district during his run, so the area is very swingy.
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Suffolk: The majority Black precincts in this city have NOT been excised from the district, so it is critical for Cotter Smasal to run up the score in these precincts and do as well as possible throughout the rest of the city. Youngkin once again narrowed the margins in the city to a narrow loss. This cannot be allowed to happen.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Delmarva Peninsula: Northampton County is a swing county that Biden easily won and Youngkin narrowly won. Cotter Smasal will have to hope the former happens even though the county is small. Accomack County, which is the more populated one, is red and the best hope is participation is lower in the county than normal.
- Hampton Roads Exurbs: The independent city of Franklin does lean our way, and it will be important for Cotter Smasal to find every vote possible in this city to offset the rest of this area. Both Isle of Wight and Southampton Counties are red counties that in a close race could tip the scale against her. We better hope that we have better numbers to overwhelm these areas.
Who is Missy Cotter Smasal?
Missy Cotter Smasal discussing issues with some future constituents.
Who is Missy Cotter Smasal? While not a political neophyte, she is close. Missy Cotter Smasal ran for the Virginia State Senate once before. She lost a close race 52%-48% in 2019 in the 8th Senate district.
She is a Navy veteran, serving as a Surface Warfare Officer in the US Navy and deploying aboard the U.S.S. Trenton during Operation Enduring Freedom. She will be strong on defense and veterans’ issues in Congress. The Navy has a huge presence in this district and bringing home the bacon for the services is important to the economy here. Cotter Smasal wouldn’t play political games with the NDAA or military promotions and make sure the military is fully funded. She will make sure that veterans get ALL of the benefits they deserve.
Cotter Smasal is also active in the Chesapeake Bay Commission - a bipartisan multi-state effort to improve the health of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Cotter Smasal will be stronger on issues relating to the environment, especially as it pertains to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Her district is one of the places most affected by the climate crisis and tidal flooding. Cotter Smasal would be a much stronger advocate for climate crisis solutions, especially when it comes to protecting coastal communities.
Cotter Smasal is a vote for stability in government. The Hampton Roads region has a significant military presence, and it is estimated that 40% of the economy comes from federal spending. Cotter Smasal put it this way in a Q&A session:
Kiggans has been put in this ineffectual chaotic crowd that is really harming our local economy here. There are a lot of people in coastal Virginia who are concerned about rising prices and the cost of living. Our district is about 40% dependent on federal funding, so when Kiggans buys into the chaos of extremists in her party, and when they can’t have budgets, or fund the government appropriately, or just kick the can down the road all the time, it impacts decisions here as a small business owner. I know that you need stability in order to grow your business and to be strong. We actually spent some time visiting some local veterans businesses this week, and they’re saying the same things. They want to make sure that they can grow their businesses and support their employees, and that starts with a stable federal government, which Kiggans and Republicans cannot provide.
This interview on SiriusXM radio is terrific to get to know Missy Cotter Smasal and her priorities for her campaign. It really allowed me to get to know her better than her campaign website!
Who is Rep. Jen Kiggans?
Rep. Jen Kiggans pretends to be “moderate”. She is yet another MAGA Republican we can defeat!
Rep. Jen Kiggans was born in Florida. She is an alumnus of Boston University. She flew H-46 and H-3 helicopters for the US Navy during a ten-year period. While stationed in Japan, she also taught English through the JET program.
After serving in the military, Kiggans went to nursing school at both Vanderbilt University and Old Dominion University. She is a geriatric nurse practitioner at Eastern Virginia Medical School and also in private practice.
Kiggans first ran for office in a tough environment for the GOP in Virginia in 2019. She ran for the 7th state senate district and had to get through a bitterly contested primary. She faced off against Democratic candidate Cheryl Turpin in the general election in a race that was highly competitive. In a very expensive race, Kiggans prevailed by a narrow 50.4% to 49.5% margin. That provided her the launching point to contest the 2nd district three years later.
C SPAN interviewed Kiggans as a part of its new members of Congress series. This is a good recap of the information above, as well as a primer on the priorities she has in Congress.
Kiggans claims that her mission in Congress is to provide what the military needs in order to achieve world peace. Yet, she made a huge unforced error in a military-heavy district. She agreed with Sen. Tuberville’s destructive anti-abortion crusade which blocked funds and promotions for military members. This impacted military families who were unable to move or enroll their kids in new schools while waiting for promotions or assignments in different states.
Abortion is another area where Kiggans is a huge hypocrite. She claims to be a “moderate” on the issue by protecting contraception and espousing alternatives to abortion. The truth is she supports a 15-week abortion ban, with the typical exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. She supports the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs, which overturned abortion rights in states that did not have them. She has called abortion a “shiny object” and “elective surgery” similar to a “Hollywood nose job”.
Kiggans tries to have it both ways about the 2020 election as well. Although she hasn’t come out and said it, Kiggans hesitates to acknowledge Biden is the legitimate President. She has called for an audit of Virginia’s election results, even though no fraud has been found. Finally, she calls for more restrictive voting measures such as voter roll purges, voter ID laws, and banning “ballot harvesting” on her campaign website.
Virginia’s 2nd district can do better than re-electing a hypocrite like Rep. Jen Kiggans.
How Can You Help?
This is the race in the #Beatable16 where donations could matter the most. Missy Cotter Smasal has struggled with fundraising so far and had only ~$367k cash on hand at the end of May. That compares with Rep. Jen Kiggans, who has around $1.85M to spend. Hopefully being added to Red to Blue perked up the fundraising for Q2!
In terms of outside money, the Norfolk, Va market will see increased ad spending for this race. The left-leaning House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9M for this contest, while the right-leaning Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $2.2M for this seat. If Cotter Smasal continues to struggle with fundraising, expect the numbers here to change.
If you live in the Hampton Roads area and wish to sign up to volunteer on a more permanent basis for Missy Cotter Smasal, I’ve included a link to do so at the top and the bottom of this article.
This will be one tough district to flip, but Missy Cotter Smasal has a similar profile to former Rep. Elaine Luria who was able to flip this district back in 2018. She has run for the Virginia State Senate before, so she is not a complete political novice. Still, she is a slight underdog in a district Biden barely won and Trump could very easily win in 2024. Polling agrees with this assessment, but it also gives a path to victory.
Rep. Jen Kiggans is rated the 19th most vulnerable Republican by Daily Kos. She likes to tout bipartisanship on her official House website, but her votes in Congress are rarely bipartisan. Her “moderate” credentials are only in comparison to the other MAGA found in the GOP caucus — she, like them, votes the MAGA position but she sounds “moderate” in her stances. Kiggans will likely outrun Trump in this district, but how much so remains to be seen.
The question is, will the challenger Missy Cotter Smasal have what it takes to flip this district?
Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia-2
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