The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NV Ballot: Nevadans will decide this fall on a proposed constitutional amendment that would create America's first-ever top-five primary system, and the Nevada Independent reports that outside groups on both sides of the battle have reserved millions in ad time to make their arguments.
An organization called Vote Yes on 3 has booked $9 million to encourage voters to support Question 3. The campaign is largely funded by two national election reform organizations Article IV and Unite America.
A newly formed outfit called Fair Government Nevada, meanwhile, is urging voters to select the "no" option, and the Nevada Independent reports that the organization has booked $15 million in advertising. Much of this money may be directed elsewhere, though, because Question 3 isn't FGN's only concern this year.
Instead, the story says that, per an unnamed source, "the group is eyeing ad spots on other topics such as voter ID that could take precedence" over the top-five battle. FGN did not report any donations before the last reporting deadline ended in June, though it apparently has seen a major influx in cash since then. We do know, however, that FGN's treasurer is the leader of the progressive group Battle Born Progress.
Nevada, like most states, holds partisan primaries for statewide, legislative, and congressional offices, and it takes just a plurality to win both the nomination and the general election. Under the top-five system, though, all candidates running for these posts would face off in a single primary, regardless of party, and the five candidates with the most votes would move on to a general election that would be decided through instant-runoff voting.
In 2020, Alaska voted to adopt a similar system, though it caps the number of general election candidates at four. But the Last Frontier's system, unlike what the Nevada initiative proposes, also institutes ranked-choice voting in general elections for president.
Silver State law requires voter-initiated amendments to be approved in two successive general elections, and top-five proponents had to clear their first hurdle in 2022. That initiative, which was also called Question 3, passed 53-47 despite opposition from prominent Democrats like then-Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei, who remains the state's only Republican member of Congress, also unsuccessfully urged a "no" vote.
But Joe Lombardo, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who would go on to unseat Sisolak, avoided answering when the Nevada Independent asked about his stance. Lombardo also does not appear to have taken sides in this year's battle over Question 3 even though its passage could dramatically impact his 2026 reelection campaign.
Governors
● MO-Gov, MO-AG: Termed-out Gov. Mike Parson on Thursday endorsed Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe to succeed him, a move that comes with less than three weeks to go before the end of what's been a nasty and expensive Aug. 6 Republican primary battle.
The governor's preference for his fellow Mike was no surprise, though. The chief executive appointed Kehoe to replace him as lieutenant governor in 2018 after Parson himself replaced scandal-ridden Gov. Eric Greitens, and Parson notably used his appearance at last year's state fair to praise his second-in-command.
Parson this week also backed state Attorney General Andrew Bailey in his own heated GOP primary against Will Scharf, who is one of Donald Trump's attorneys. Bailey was Parson's general counsel before the governor appointed him attorney general after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022.
House
● MN-05: While Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar didn't run any TV ads two years ago ahead of her unexpectedly tight primary victory against former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, she's adopting a very different strategy for their Aug. 13 rematch. AdImpact reports that Omar has spent or reserved a hefty $2.1 million in ad time, while only $43,000 has been booked to help her challenger prevail in Minnesota's safely blue 5th District.
Samuels held Omar to a historically close 50-48 win in 2022 after he faulted her for supporting an unsuccessful local ballot measure from the previous year that would have replaced the Minneapolis Police Department with a new department of public safety, a drive he linked to the "defund the police" movement.
Omar's campaign didn't push back against those attacks on the air because, as the HuffPost's Daniel Marans would report, she didn't pay for any TV spots because of a belief that her base was made up of "young voters" who presumably wouldn't be motivated by messages on television.
Samuels is once again making this argument in his opening ad campaign, but his opponent's new respect for the power of TV ads isn't the only reason he may have a harder time getting his message out than he did two years ago. Omar finished June with $1.8 million in the bank, compared to $334,000 for Samuels; at this point in the 2022 cycle, by contrast, Samuels had more money to spend than the incumbent.
● MO-01: Analyst Rob Pyers flags that Democratic Rep. Cori Bush's allies at the Justice Democrats have now spent $1 million to help her win renomination on Aug. 6, but she's still getting decisively outspent by her intraparty critics.
AdImpact reports that a total of $8.1 million in ad time has been spent or reserved to attack her or promote her main primary rival, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, while $1.5 million has gone to the opposite goal. The main pro-Bell group remains AIPAC's United Democracy Project affiliate.
Legislatures
● MS Redistricting: The federal court that overturned Mississippi's state legislative maps earlier this month has given the Republican-run legislature until the end of next year's regular legislative session to enact new maps to remedy the discrimination against Black voters. That session will likely last until sometime next spring, and special elections will subsequently have to be held for any redrawn districts. Republican officials have yet to indicate whether they will appeal the ruling requiring new maps.
Poll Pile
- AZ-Sen: J.L. Partners (R) for Kari Lake: Kari Lake (R): 44, Ruben Gallego (D): 43, Eduardo Quintana (G): 3 (46-40 Trump with third-party candidates) (Feb.: 46-44 Lake)
- VA-Sen: Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 47, Hung Cao (R): 34 (47-42 Biden in head-to-head, 42-39 Biden with third-party candidates)
The National Journal's Nicholas Anastácio notes that J.L. Partners included Quintana as the Green Party option even though he's competing in the July 30 primary as a write-in candidate against two opponents whose names are on the ballot.
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
