Right-wing apologists for Putin have been saying that Russia will eventually win the war in Ukraine. They argue that Russia will prevail because they have a larger population, economy, and military than Ukraine. That may all be true, but what is also true is that the Ukraine war has turned into an unmitigated disaster for Russia.
Putin’s vanity project of trying to seize Ukraine in three days failed miserably. Instead of admitting defeat, Putin doubled down and essentially committed the Russian military to fight an attritional campaign against Ukraine.
Putin has only succeeded in attritting the Russian military. Their losses have been nothing short of catastrophic. Undermanned and outgunned, the Ukrainian military has managed (if the numbers are to be believed) to kill or wounded over 560,000 soldiers, destroyed over 15,000 artillery systems, 8,000 tanks, 15,000 armored personnel vehicles, as well more than 22,000 pieces of other ground-based equipment. This totals over 60,000 pieces of equipment lost. The Russians also lost 28 ships to a country with no Navy. In addition, Russia has lost 361 aircraft and 326 helicopters in the bargain. Even if these numbers have been inflated, cutting the estimates of losses in half still would yield staggering results.
The Russian military has only made minimal advances across the front and is no closer to a breakthrough. The Russians have resorted to using vengeance weapons of rockets, glide bombs, and drones against Ukrainian civilians to break their spirit. Any student of military history will tell you that vengeance weapons only steel the population's resolve.
Putin and his people claim that Russia will not stop fighting until they conquer all of Ukraine. But this goal is totally unrealistic. They don’t have the money or the troops to secure a country of over 37 million people that will be very hostile to a Russian occupation.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Russia sends over a thousand soldiers to be wounded or killed and loses well over a hundred pieces of equipment every single day. For their effort, the Russians seize a bombed-out non-strategic hamlet or town if they make any advances at all; ergo, the Russian army can’t make major advances, and Putin won’t retreat because he can’t admit defeat.
By this time next year, Russia will (or could lose), conservatively, another 365,000 soldiers dead and wounded, and at least another 36,500 pieces of equipment of all types will or could be destroyed. This would bring their troop losses to at least 925,0000 wounded or killed by next year. Total equipment losses would be over 96,500. By next year those levels of troop and equipment losses will become unsustainable.
In the process, Putin has crippled the Russian economy for at least ten years, if not longer. He has also created a demographic disaster for Russia. Russia is a demographic time bomb. Even before the war with Ukraine, Russia was losing people. Birthrates have been low for years. Then COVID came and killed 403,000 Russians. Another 817,000 – 922,000 have fled Russia since the start of the Ukraine war. Throw in another over half a million dead and wounded soldiers, and you have demographic losses that may never recover. Because of labor shortages and potential civilian unrest, Putin can’t fully mobilize the country. He is currently recruiting 30,000 new soldiers a month to become cannon fodder. This will roughly replace the around 30,000 soldiers that are wounded or killed every month. To make up for the losses, Russia is trying to recruit North Koreans, Africans, Nepalis, and others to join the Russian army. So far, the result is a trickle of new troops.
Russia can’t produce new weapons fast enough to replace losses. They are pulling old equipment out of mothballs, refurbishing them, and sending them to the front, only to be blown up in short order. Putin is seeking more weapons from North Korea and China. Russia will continue to receive substandard ammunition and other less-than-state-of-the-art equipment from North Korea. Russia’s frenemy, China, so far has demurred in sending arms to Russia, given the expected blowback from the United States and Europe. China knows that they would be targeted for sanctions if they did. And it is hard to believe that Chinese weapons would tilt the battlefield in Russia’s favor. They are mostly Russian designs that have proven ineffective against Ukraine’s defensive measures. Meanwhile, Ukraine is replacing its losses with NATO standard equipment that is proving to be highly effective against Russian equipment and logistics. And Ukraine’s “army of drones” is devastating Russian army equipment, as it would the Chinese gear.
The Russian economy is being propped up by spending 40% of the national budget on the Ukraine war. Oil and gas revenue have kept the war effort alive for the last few years. However, Russia is spending more than it is taking in. It is running a budgetary deficit and spending down its sovereign (rainy day) fund. Inflation is running around 9%, and borrowing costs are rising to 17.75%. Cumulative inflation since 2022 is 47.02%. Inflation is the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy. Inflation that is this high usually leads to a serious recession or an economic collapse. This is not a healthy economy, and its future is not bright.
The long-term damage to the Russian economy is significant. Natural gas sales to Europe will never return, and a new natural gas pipeline to Asia is only a dream. Russia is still selling oil but at a deep discount. Russia still has foreign cash reserves but is effectively blocked from using most of them because of sanctions.
Other financial sanctions have continued to bite. Foreign direct investment in Russia is nonexistent, negatively affecting numerous industries. At least a thousand foreign companies have already fled Russia. Russian military sales are in free fall. The performance of Russian equipment against NATO standard equipment has been dismal and potential customers have noticed.
China’s trade with Russia is high and has made Russia reliant on Chinese goods. Almost 47% of Russia’s imports come from China, giving China enormous power over the Russian economy. And China is charging Russia a premium for their exports, which is feeding Russian inflation. New sanctions have suspended 80% of transactions between Russia and China, which will limit Chinese shipments to Russia.
Putin needs a miracle. He is probably hoping that Trump's victory will be that miracle. But even if Trump is elected, he won’t be able to help Russia in the short run. If elected, he will be sworn in on January 20, 2025. In the meantime, the Pentagon will continue spending the $61 billion that has been authorized by Congress for Ukrainian arms. European arms deliveries will continue, and we shouldn’t be surprised if South Korea starts sending arms to Ukraine to cover somewhat for the potential loss of US support.
So, I am calling it. The fighting will be over by the summer of 2025 at the latest. Russia won’t be able to sustain troop and equipment losses, and the fighting will culminate. The fighting may be over, but peace doesn’t look like a sure thing if Putin is still in power.
He may threaten to go nuclear, but it will not end well for him. NATO and the world would be forced to respond to a nuclear attack. He doesn’t want a war with NATO but may get one. Meanwhile, Russia will remain an economic pariah, and sanctions will be turned up, making the lives of most Russians miserable and eventually cratering the Russian economy. All this destruction, in both Ukraine and Russia, is to assuage the ego of Putin, who won’t or can’t admit defeat.
www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/russias-massive-brain-drain-is-ravaging-the-economy-these-stunning-figures-show-why-it-will-soon-be-smaller-than- indonesias/articleshow/103329600.cms
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/central-bank-warns-of-russian-economic-collapse-amid-sanctions/ar-BB1p9cdS?ocid=BingNewsVerp&cvid=c0ab02bc602a43978812d08a271ebb5e&ei=11
