How did a district that voted for Biden by a 57%-42% margin fall to the GOP? Outgoing Rep. Kathleen Rice sounded the alarm about our prospects of retaining this district in 2022. This came out after Anthony D’Esposito defeated Laura Gillen in what many deemed an upset.
In the November midterms, Republicans had a huge year in New York State, a sharp contrast to Democratic overperformance in suburbs across much of the country. The GOP won every congressional district anchored on Long Island — despite Democrats holding a party registration edge in both Nassau and Suffolk — and came out ahead in key districts in the Hudson Valley and Upstate.
And outgoing four-term Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice, who will be succeeded by GOP Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito next week, said in a recent Politico interview that she sounded the alarm to party leaders regarding her intuition about the state of play on Long Island ahead of the midterms.
Rice, a moderate who represents the Long Island-based 4th Congressional District and previously served as the Nassau County district attorney for nearly a decade, told the news outlet that her warnings about the dire prospects of Democrats in the suburbs of New York City went unheeded.
"This is a blue, blue state, and it's the reason why we lost the majority," Rice said. "We lost four House seats. I said [to party leaders], 'You guys, don't understand, we're gonna lose Long Island. And we're gonna lose some other seats, further up.' They said, 'No, no, no, your seat was a Biden +13.'"
"When we had elections in November of 2021, every single Democrat on Long Island lost. Not because they weren't popular and not because people didn't like them. But they wanted to send a message to Washington," she added.
A ray of hope came in the neighboring NY-03 special election last winter, when Rep. Tom Suozzi won back a seat on Long Island. There is still room for “common sense” Democratic candidates to be elected to this district. Laura Gillen is running as such, but given shifts in local politics, this district is less of a sure pickup than before.
The question is whether or not Laura Gillen can turn the tables on Rep. Anthony D’Esposito to win this district in 2024.
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Laura Gillen for New York-4
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What’s the Big Idea?
Precinct results for NY-04 in 2022.
THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+5 PVI
This district is located just east of John F. Kennedy Airport. It’s 99% urban and a significant part of it is water-adjacent. When it comes to household income, NY-04 ranks among the top wealthiest districts nationally. NY-04 is the second-wealthiest congressional district in New York. Its median household income is $122,164 and the mean HHI is $152,531. Almost a quarter of the district’s households have a HHI over $200,000 or more. Just over 50% of the district’s residents are white; 22% are Latino; 16.3% are African American, and 7% are Asian American.
Before 2022, the last time that Republicans held this district was the 1994 Republican Revolution. That didn’t last long, as in 1996, former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy stomped the sitting member of Congress to represent this area. She did so for nearly 20 years and was only troubled in her 1998 and 2010 re-election efforts.
Rep. Kathleen Rice came to hold this district after a bruising election battle in 2014. Once again, the midterm blues hit this district and it was a narrow race. Rice wasn’t troubled in any of her other elections, but she retired in 2022. Open seats are always tricky to defend, and that proved the case in the last election. Even though Biden won this district 56.8% to 42.2% during the 2020 election, the seat flipped to the GOP.
The main reason this district flipped was because the NY-GOV race was such a drag at the top of the ticket. Rep. Lee Zeldin carried this district amidst his narrow loss, and that proved too much for Laura Gillen to counter. In an upset, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito won by a 51.8% to 48.2% margin, or about 10000 votes.
I believe a Presidential electorate will provide voters more favorable to Gillen this time around. There were 355,912 votes in this district in 2020, and only 271,560 in 2022. My speculation is that most of these missing votes are from Democratic-leaning voters that sat at home.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 4th district.
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Valley Stream and Belmont Area: The communities here are filled with Black voters and are usually attached to a VRA-mandated district. Their inclusion in the 4th district makes it more likely to flip back so long as Gillen is able to make sure they decide to vote.
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Hempstead/Uniondale/Freeport: The area around these three towns is filled with minority voters, and it is also the home turf of Gillen. She will have to work to make sure people vote here, but otherwise this part of the district is very favorable to her.
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Long Beach: This beachfront community is a light shade of blue, and it is important that it doesn’t turn against Gillen as it could be a swingy area. She will have to work hard to connect to the people found in this town to ensure they vote in a way that helps her campaign.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Wantagh and Seaford Area: This area of the district is rather red, and Gillen cannot count on voters here to pull the lever for the blue team. Her goal is damage mitigation and matching the Biden margins here or close to it so that she can win over this seat.
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Southwest Nassau County: Another reliably red area, these communities are sharply polarized from the communities surrounding it. Gillen must once again limit the damage these areas can cause her, and hope that these areas turn out at a lesser rate than favorable ones to her.
- Garden City Area: This area is swingy in nature, but it has a pinkish to reddish hue to it. Gillen must contest this area to make sure she isn’t blown out, but otherwise she cannot count on this area to create her winning margin. It is all about limiting the damage caused here.
Laura Gillen: A Lifetime of Public Service
Laura Gillen is not taking this race for granted this time around, and is again the favorite to win.
According to her bio on her campaign website, Laura Gillen grew up in Baldwin, New York and went to Georgetown University. She volunteered to help at the GMHC during the HIV/AIDS epidemic when it was running rampant through the LGBTQ+ community. It is clear that Gillen is an ally to the LGBTQ+ people and will codify protections for them.
Upon returning home, Gillen attended Georgetown Law Center and NYU School of Law. She would join the private practice and serve pro bono to represent victims of domestic violence. Gillen would later join a law firm in Nassau County and do similar work. She will also continue the dedicated work of those before her on gun safety - including passing red flag laws and enhanced background checks.
Mental health issues come up frequently on her Ballotpedia summary of her 2022 issues page (her 2024 site does not have an issues page yet). Not only would she work to keep firearms out of the hands of those with mental health issues, but she will advocate for getting the funding so that more people with mental health issues can be helped.
Laura Gillen ran for Hempstead Town Supervisor in 2017 and became the first Democratic supervisor in over a century. She was able to tackle endemic corruption which allowed her to cut taxes for her constituents. Gillen knows that local taxes are still exorbitant, which is why her #1 priority is voting to restore that SALT deduction that was taken away by Donald Trump.
When supervisor, Laura Gillen took multiple steps to protect the environment and the water supply from toxic chemicals. She protected beaches by expanding the shellfish hatchery because shellfish filter out toxins very efficiently. She also sued polluters so that she could cover the costs of filtering out contaminants such as PFAS from the water supply. She will continue to be strong on these issues if elected to Congress.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito: Crooked Cop, Crooked Politician
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is one of the more endangered incumbents in the nation due to district lean.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito was born in 1982. He has spent most of his adult life as a detective in the NYPD. He constantly refers to his work as a detective to prove that he is “tough on crime”, but it turns out that D’Esposito is yet another bad cop. He has four complaints in his record including one for excessive force and another for an improper search. He was reprimanded for moonlighting as a DJ in 2007, and he also was reprimanded for having his gun stolen from his car in 2015. His shenanigans cost the NYPD over $300,000 in taxpayer money paid out in lawsuits.
D’Esposito was appointed to the Hempstead Council in 2016, and won full terms in 2017 and 2021. While on the council, he made sure that his friends and family were well taken care of. The NY Supreme Court ruled that D’Esposito broke corruption laws by impermissibly giving benefits in this fashion. He is under investigation for misusing tens of thousands of dollars in campaign funds. Given his connections to disgraced former Rep. George Santos, D’Esposito is just another crooked politician.
The troubling part about D’Esposito is that he has made no attempt to moderate his positions while in Congress. He has an extreme anti-abortion record which includes backing criminal time for doctors and supporting a bill that would amount to a national abortion ban. He has even signed onto a “life begins at conception” bill that would ban IVF treatments.
Despite blathering on about how the “border is open” and there being a need to do something about it, Rep. D’Esposito bends the knee to Trump when it comes to legislation. After sounding open to the bipartisan border security bill, he rejected attempts to pass it after Trump said to kill the bill. But D’Esposito found time at a fancy New York GOP party to praise Gov. Abbott of Texas for dropping off migrants in the middle of New York City!
It’s clear that Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is another crooked and failed performative politician instead of a serious legislator.
How Can You Help?
The New York City media market is prohibitively expensive, so fundraising is not as important for this district as it is in other locations. It is clear that Laura Gillen is finding funds to finance her challenge to D’Esposito. It seems that major political donors are turning attention to down-ballot races.
And insurgent candidates like Long Island’s Laura Gillen could benefit from the newfound interest.
Gillen, a former local official challenging GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, raised about $1.9 million in the past three months — more than tripling her first-quarter haul, POLITICO has learned.
Now, she may see her momentum boosted if resources are reallocated to bolster Democrats’ chances of controlling both the House and Senate as guardrails for a potential Donald Trump presidency.
Gillen has been more efficient with the funds she has raised. D’Esposito has actually raised more money so far but it seems not to matter. It also helps that Gillen has been added to the coveted Red to Blue program.
There are so many competitive races in the New York area that it is hard to gauge exactly how much outside money will be spent on this one. The NRCC has reserved $2.2M for these races, while their allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund will pay for $20.7M in ads to protect the many incumbents found here. In response, the left-leaning House Majority PAC is shelling out $16.1M to go on the attack.
There are no currently scheduled events for Laura Gillen at this time. If you wish to volunteer on a more permanent basis for Laura Gillen, I have included a link to do so at the top and bottom of this article.
If we cannot beat Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, we do not deserve to win back the House of Representatives. He is seen by the ratings aggregators as one of the legislators most likely to lose his seat. Daily Kos Elections has D’Esposito as the 8th most vulnerable seat that the GOP currently holds. Yet Long Island has defied political trends recently with the GOP clawing back in local and federal races.
Laura Gillen is running a smarter campaign this time around because she knows she cannot take this race for granted. She seems to be emulating fellow Long Islander Rep. Tom Suozzi, running as a moderate-to-conservative “common sense” Democratic candidate instead of as a doctrinaire liberal. That’s not to say she will be a thorn in our side if elected but instead she is willing to do what it takes to flip this seat.
The question remains whether or not Laura Gillen can flip back this district after the 2022 upset that led Rep. Anthony D’Esposito to represent it.
