not yet one week since Biden withdrew from the race, then announced his endorsement of Harris.
I listen to people saying it will be a close race. I begin to think that is wrong, perhaps very wrong.
Some commentators are relying very heavily on the top line in polling data. But polls are often lagging indicators. Some of those polls are of registered voters, and others are of “likely” voters. Neither include in their universe those who are now motivated to register to vote and hence exclued, and “likely” would not include people who did not vote in the past two general elections. Even with the increased turnout as a result of Dobbs — and please look not only at the results of things like referenda on abortion in “red” states like KS and OH, but also at Democratic performance across the board in special elections, even when still losing heavily “red” constituencies but by much smaller margins that in 20202 or 2024 — most models for polling still do not take into account what we see happening. So perhaps it is worthwhile noting some data that is outside of polling but which may be more indicative of what is happening.
There has been an explosion of self-organizing groups, starting with Black women, who got Zoom, raised over 81 million dollars in four hours, and got thousands upon thousands of new volunteers. Shannon Watts organized another Zoom session for White women that totally broke Zoom, which had to modify its limits and as a result over 164,000 participated, raising 8.5 million and also got thousands of new volunteers. There was also “Out for Kamala” — a zoom for gays, that George Takei said had 20,000 participants raising 3 million dollars and getting 1,500 new volunteers committed. Monday there will be a White Men zoom that also should explode — an offering of hats for that group wound up also melting down part of the internet.
All of this is indications of unbridled enthusiasm for the Harris candidacy. These are small donors, who can give again. My understanding is that as of last evening the direct contributions to the Harris campaign by individual donors was well past $200,000,000 with almost 900,000 of them first time contributors this cycle. We also know big donors have already committed at least $150 million to superpacs (but remember that if this money is used for advertising it pays rates of 4x or more as compared to a campaign).
But what I want to focus on is people. The campaign put out an announcement of open hiring via online fir this afternoon for people to do what is effectively field in a batch of states, including not only the three blue wall states, but also NV, AZ, GA, ME (remember they split their EV by Congressional District), NE-02, and NC. Within a few hours the spots were full. The kind of work these hires would do is absolutely important to maximizing turnout, and folks should remember the higher the level of turnout the better for Dems not just on the top of the ticket but also down-ballot: House, Senate, Governor, statewide offices, state legislatures, etc.
What I am seeing in polling data SO FAR is at least 2 points and in many cases 5 or more points improvement in the relative positions of Harris versus Trump as compared to Biden versus Trump. Trump got NO BOUNCE from either his VP nomination or his convention. Harris has had neither, and if things go as I expect she should get a somewhat substantial advance from both. And she is getting a lot of “earned” (which means free) media right now, most positive (although there is still some of the idiocy we have been seeing from the New York Times, especially the editorial board but also a number of their columnists and what they are putting up in op-eds).
There are some holes — the campaign needs to get more ads up quickly. People have noted the saturation of Trump ads on broadcasts of Philadephia Phillies games. That needs to be offset.
Let me pivot briefly to the VP pick. Two people that I know of have withdrawn themselves, former Admiral McRaven and Governor Whitmer. Not sure we know all the names of those asked to submit materials to Eric Holder and his team. I want to offer some comments.
While I respect Gov. Shapiro and recognize the importance of PA, I think he is a problem. He has supported school vouchers, and that is a flashpoint for most teachers. Granted, the VP pick has to sign on to the ideas of the top of the ticket, but that could be more than a distraction. And while the overreach by pro-Palestinian groups in DC during Netanyahu’s visit provides some cover, how Shario handled student demonstrators could be a problem with young people, and clearly would be a problem with the Arab population in Michigan.
Some folks might well argue for Cooper — NC does have 16 EVs (compared to PA with 19). I note that NC may well be moving in our direction because of the problem of Republicans running for statewide office. AG Stein, the D for Governor, is already 6 points ahead of his R opponent, and the R candidate for running the state educational bureaucracy is simply put a nut case. \
I want to talk about several other possible candidates.
First, in AZ, Mark Kelly. The knock against him has been that he opposed the PRO Act which unions very much want. He has now already changed his position to support that. Some would note that Dems control all 3 statewide offices (Gov, AG, SecState) that control election issues, but it is worth noting that there are still issues within counties (especial Maricopa) and the state legislature. The argument may be that Kelly would guarantee the state for Dems, Maybe, but I would also note the following. Remember that he defeated Blake Masters for the Senate for the full term, and Masters was a protege of and had much of his campaign funded by Peter Thiel, who of course is responsible for J D Vance as well. If Vance remains Republican nominee, that provides another line of attack. And most folks do not realize that his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, is Jewish (Kelly is Catholic). That would, with the current Second Gentleman, mean the entire ticket provides a real contrast against the Christian nationalism represented by Project 2025, J D Vance, and to some degree Trump himself. That, and protecting Social Security and Medicare, could well mean FL is in reach — remember there is a substantial and active Jewish population especially in S Florida.
There are two others, both superb communicators. Gov Walz of MN would have great appeal in rural areas, would strongly be supported by educators (he is a former teacher), and has a strong military record (Command Sergeant Major in National Guard. And Pete Buddigieg should not be overlooked, despite his being gay. Remember, he won the Iowa Caucus in 2020, largely as a result of how well he did with rural voters. He has a good military record. He is by far the best communicator among the possible candidates for VP (although Walz is not far behind), and he would absolutely enthuse young voters, whose turnout will be key. Here I note parenthetically that of the new registrations since last Sunday the strong majority were young voters, with a substantial number just 18.
So where does this all stand? Probably too soon to be certain, but here are my takeaways. The Harris campaign has at least 220 offices already and with the money the campaign has and is getting, will be expanding that number rapidly. That will give them a huge advantage in generating turnout versus the Republicans, Remember, the additional quarter billion in campaign money (to say nothing of the big donor funds) is not yet showing up in polling data.
I also think you will get major juice from validators — think of the impact of who might perform at the convention. It will not be Hulk Hogan and that ilk. Think of Biden giving a speech, Think of both Obamas And as for celebraties, imagine the impact if Taylor Swift and Beyonce appear at the convention — and they are apparently already going to do a concert in behalf of the campaign,
Here is my preliminary thinking of where we seem to be heading. It ultimately will not be close. Biden won by over 7 million votes, but won his 306 electoral votes as a result of winning several states (AZ, GA, WI, PA) of only around 100,000. Not yet sure of GA this time because of voter suppression laws, but I think Harris is going to win national popular vote by more than 10 million, and I think she may exceed 320 EVs — because I think she will win NC (same EVs as GA), hold all Biden states except maybe GA (although I think she can pull that out), and I think FL is in play. And if Trump panics and pushes Vance off the ticket (although he would have to agree to step down) Trump would look so weak that it would become a blowout. I don’t think that will happen because Wiles and LaCivita are professional enough to realize that could cost OH (despite Vance now being very unpopular there) and no R has ever been elected without winning OH.
This is all preliminary. We will need to see who is the VP pick and how press and parts of the constituency respond. Will there be a Trump-Harris debate? Will there be a VP candidate debate? Will the enthusiasm continue? Will the money continue to pour in? Will the media do an honest job of covering the craziness being shown by both R candidates? Will Trump have a health issue of his own?
Nothing is as of yet certain.
But as of now, regardless of the current polls, I do not see a path for Trump getting elected.
Now let’s get out there and make it happen.
Peace.
