• MO-Gov, MO-AG: The Republican pollster Remington Research Group's newest survey for the local tipsheet the Missouri Scout shows Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft deadlocked 29-29 against Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe ahead of next week's Republican primary for governor, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 18%. RRG found Ashcroft leading Kehoe 31-29 about a month ago, with Eigel taking just 9%.
Show Me State Republicans who still haven't made up their minds won't be getting Donald Trump's help to decide, though, because the party's supreme master endorsed all three candidates on Saturday evening. Trump's declaration of neutrality, though, didn't stop each member of this trio from acting like they were the sole contender to receive his blessing. Eigel, for instance, already has a commercial touting him as the candidate "Endorsed By President Trump."
RRG's survey also finds appointed incumbent Andrew Bailey fending off Trump attorney Will Scharf 36-31, which is similar to his 27-23 advantage last month. Scharf is one of RRG's clients, though this poll was also done for the nonpartisan Scout.
• Primary Night: Arizona's new embrace of swing-state status means it's now home to loads of competitive elections up and down the ballot, and Jeff Singer previews the big primaries to watch on Tuesday. Many of these contests will help determine which party holds power in important offices across the state, though some are just good old-fashioned primaries for safe districts―including one internecine battle that has outdone all others in setting new records for Republican repulsiveness.
But one person who isn't repelled by the vicious―and ever more expensive―primary to replace outgoing Rep. Debbie Lesko is Donald Trump, who stunned everyone on Saturday by issuing an unusual duel endorsement to venture capitalist Blake Masters and attorney Abe Hamadeh. Hamadeh, though, had Trump's singular endorsement until this weekend, so he probably wasn't comforted by the Truth Social post praising him as someone who "has been with me all the way!"
But while the contest between Hamadeh and Masters already attracted national attention as they've fought over leaked texts, Islamophobic attacks, and claims about residency at a "nudist vegan commune," they're not the only candidates on the ballot. The field also includes an indicted fake elector, a former congressman who resigned following one of the grossest scandals ever, and a powerful GOP legislator who is hoping to benefit from all this chaos.
The contest to succeed Lesko is far from the only thing on tap for Tuesday. Democrats will be choosing their candidate to take on one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress, while election conspiracy theorists are hoping that success on Tuesday will set them up to take control of Arizona's largest county. Singer has far more on all of these contests and more, including a GOP primary where a party leader said she would "lynch" the incumbent, in our preview.
Polls close at 10 PM ET/7 PM local time in most of the state, though because the Navajo Nation observes daylight saving time, voting will conclude one hour earlier there. We'll have an open thread to discuss the results at Daily Kos Elections.
• AZ-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights finds election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake leading Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb 50-38 ahead of Tuesday's Republican Senate primary. Almost everyone has treated the nomination contest between Lake, who has the support of Donald Trump and the NRSC, and the underfunded Lamb as an afterthought, but we'll learn soon if a significant portion of the GOP electorate wishes they could move on from Lake.
• WA-Gov: The Northwest Progressive Institute's newest survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert each remain on track to advance out of next week's top-two primary. Ferguson leads with 39% as Reichert beats out his fellow Republican, former Richland school board member Semi Bird, 28-10 for second. Another 5% opt for Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who has struggled to gain traction despite some heavy outside spending on his behalf.
Respondents also favor Ferguson over Reichert 49-43 in a head-to-head, though there's one caveat. This survey sampled people who plan to take part in the primary, and they may have different preferences than the larger fall electorate.
• KS-02, MI-08, WA-03: Donald Trump has endorsed three House candidates ahead of their respective Aug. 6 Republican primaries: former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt in Kansas' 2nd District, former Trump administration official Paul Junge in Michigan's 8th, and Army veteran Joe Kent in Washington's 3rd.
These candidates already shared the unwelcome distinction of losing in 2022, though that's probably not the theme Trump was going for. Schmidt fell just short in his bid to unseat Gov. Laura Kelly, while Junge lost to Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee by a surprisingly wide 53-43 margin. Kent, for his part, beat GOP incumbent Jaime Herrera-Beutler in the last top-two primary only to narrowly lose this light red constituency to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez.
Junge, who is running again following Kildee's decision to retire from this swing seat, is arguably the candidate who has the most to gain from Trump's intervention. Junge faces an expensive and nasty intra-party battle next week against retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves, who argued to the Detroit News that her foe is "a two-time loser." Junge, though, has repeatedly publicized surveys showing him far ahead, while Draves has yet to release contradictory data.
Schmidt, for his part, already appeared set to advance in a field featuring two lesser-known opponents. Businessman Shawn Tiffany, however, hasn't given up trying to beat Schmidt for the right to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner, in this conservative eastern Kansas seat. A Tiffany's ad unsubtly features flies buzzing around a pile of manure as a narrator declares, "Derek's liberal voting record: A smelly pile of Schmidt." Former Turner staffer Jeff Kahrs is also running.
Kent, likewise, has long been favored to outpace his intra-party rival, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, in next week's top-two primary. But don't expect Kent, who spent his first bid spewing conspiracy theories, to be any different in his likely rematch against Gluesenkamp Perez. The candidate declared last week, "I don't think it's unreasonable to say it seems like there's some degree of a plot to kill President Trump that was noticed by people in the Secret Service, and they either let it happen or some of them were in on it."
Gluesenkamp Perez responded, "To him anything in the news is one big conspiracy theory, with the deep state pulling the strings."
• ME-02: State election officials confirmed last week that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault will be the only candidates on the fall ballot for Maine's 2nd District, so the Pine Tree State's instant-runoff voting system will not be used here this cycle.
• NRCC: The NRCC on Monday announced the first 26 members of its Young Guns program, which is meant to spotlight candidates whom the committee thinks has the strongest chance of picking up Democratic-held districts or defending competitive open seats:
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AK-AL: Nancy Dahlstrom
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AL-02: Caroleene Dobson
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CA-09: Kevin Lincoln
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CA-47: Scott Baugh
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CA-49: Matt Gunderson
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CO-03: Jeff Hurd
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CO-08: Gabe Evans
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CT-05: George Logan
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IL-17: Joe McGraw
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IN-01: Randy Niemeyer
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KS-03: Prasanth Reddy
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ME-02: Austin Theriault
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MI-07: Tom Barrett
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MN-02: Joe Teirab
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NC-01: Laurie Buckhout
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NM-02: Yvette Herrell
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NV-04: John Lee
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NY-18: Alison Esposito
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OH-09: Derek Merrin
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OH-13: Kevin Coughlin
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OR-04: Monique DeSpain
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PA-07: Ryan Mackenzie
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PA-08: Rob Bresnahan
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PA-17: Rob Mercuri
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TX-34: Mayra Flores
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VA-07: Derrick Anderson
All of these candidates, with one exception, either already won their respective primaries or face no serious intra-party opposition. The one outlier is Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is competing against businessman Nick Begich in the Aug. 20 top-four primary for the seat held by Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Dahlstrom already had endorsements from Donald Trump and the NRCC's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund.
While both Republicans should have no trouble earning a spot in the November general election, Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom next month. The lieutenant governor, however, says she's staying in no matter what.
Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight highlights how this is the first cycle where the NRCC has directly designated candidates as Young Guns rather than first making them climb through lower tiers. The committee, though, is keeping the Young Guns branding even though all three of the rising star congressmen who popularized the term in 2010―Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy―are out of office.
