I said in 2016 that Donald Trump was going to win the Presidential Election over Hillary Clinton. I was called a fool.
I said in 2018 that the Democrats were going to make a comeback in the midterms. I was mocked for my hubris.
I said in 2020 that Joe Biden and the Democrats would win big, and I said that 2020 was the RNC’s last real chance at power. I had my intelligence insulted, and I was told to shut up for being so blithely confident.
I said in 2022 that there would be no “Red Wave,” that the Republicans wasted their last real chance in 2020. I was ignored as people gave in to panic.
I do not like to be labeled as a “Political Cassandra.” This implies I am automatically cursed from being able to “alter events nor convince others of the validity of my predictions.” I patently reject this pretense. Powerless is how the Republicans want me to feel. Powerless is how they want you to feel. I try to maintain a level of professionalism when writing these journals, but all I have to say in retort to attempts to muzzle me and make me feel powerless is this:
Go straight to hell and burn. We are winning.
Now, I could be passive aggressive, or outright aggressive, as many other journals have been here in trying to smack sense into liberal heads. I know from experience, however, this is more harmful than helpful — humans do have a nasty habit of continuing to dig themselves deeper into a hole when confronted, even after being told doing so is counterproductive.
There has been too much doom and gloom. There has been too much self-hatred by Democrats. There has been too much knocking ourselves down. And so I will not lecture you. Rather, I will attempt to lead you. I will not belittle you. I will attempt to make you believe.
Some of you may have read my journal from earlier this year where I discussed that I was suffering from Long Covid as a result of a Covid-19 infection I had contracted in 2023. In that journal I talked about how, from the perspective of someone who possessed cognitive dysfunction, I knew Biden did not have cognitive dysfunction — nay he was someone who appeared to be at the top of their game.
Many of you agreed with me (to the tune of 1,017 recommendations — thank you), and so now I will attempt to show to you why Biden and the Democrats, beyond a reasonable doubt, are going to win this 2024 election cycle.
This will be a long journal, but I want to lay out as much as I can in one go.
Let us start with the basic-most reason I am self-assured. This is also to me the most personal of the reasons we will win the 2024 election.
1) Covid-19
Covid-19 nearly killed me when I caught it in February of 2023. It did not send me to the hospital, but it did weaken me to the point of being an invalid and damaged my cognitive function to the point where I still have not fully recovered a year and a half later. Covid-19 did this to a 26 year old man who was in good health and fully vaccinated with booster shots.
Statista reports that, as of April 26th 2023, 1.1 million Americans died from Covid-19 complications. It is believed that Republican voters succumbed to Covid-19 15% more than Democratic voters, before the Covid vaccine became widely available (according to The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, or CIDRAP). The CIDRAP also noted that after the vaccine became widely available, the gap expanded to as much as a 43% difference (+43 points, if you will) with Republicans being massively more likely to succumb to Covid-19 complications. The study noticed that the highest contrasts in numbers were seen in states like Florida and Ohio — states we know were actively hiding just how many of their people were dying to Covid-19 (implying the 1.1 million number of deaths is likely far far higher). The CIDRAP concluded with, “If differences in COVID-19 vaccination by political party affiliation persist, particularly in the absence of other pandemic mitigation strategies, the higher excess death rate observed among Republican voters may continue through subsequent stages of the pandemic.”
CIDRAP published this article through the University of Minnesota on July 24th, 2023 — you can read it and Statista for yourself here:
www.cidrap.umn.edu/…
www.statista.com/...
The RNC needs to expand their voter base in order to overtake the DNC, yet they are dying in disproportionately higher numbers to Covid-19, and they are continuing to die. This is not to be celebrated, but this is nevertheless a crippling blow in an electoral numbers game.
This leads me to my second reason I know Biden and the Democrats will win in 2024.
2) The Youth Voters
In November of 2023, Tuft’s University did a poll of “youth” voters (defined as voters between the ages 18-34). The poll found that:
57% of youth voters were “extremely likely to vote” in the 2024 Presidential Election.
There was a +21 point advantage among youth voters in favor of Democrats. Of youth voters, 51% supported Democrats, 30% supported Republicans, and 16% were Undecided. The hottest topics for youth voters were: protecting the environment, having fair wages, reducing inflation, and cracking down on guns — all strongpoints for the DNC.
circle.tufts.edu/...
This polling has been consistent with recorded youth voting and polling since 2016. As someone in the “youth vote” demographic, we know damned well what the stakes are.
Come on, people, 57% of the so called “laziest and least likely to vote” demographic is up in arms and going to vote in this 2024 election, with an overwhelming majority of them supporting Democrats. And these numbers are coming from November of 2023 — when people aren’t even supposed to realize that a presidential election is coming.
Additionally, I am no mathematician, but these numbers suggest something massively consequential. Republicans are dying off at a significantly higher rate than they are able to replace their numbers with new voters. If the conservative numbers of Statista and CIDRAP are to be believed (I think more Republicans have died at a higher rate than we realize), then Republicans are replacing their losses at a 21 point deficit to Democrats while simultaneously losing members at a 43 point higher rate than Democrats.
Mind you, these numbers are all before the 2024 Presidential cycle has even really gotten moving. The numbers I’ve described are also all from before the 2024 Superbowl with Trump (MAGA) alienating the youth’s god: Taylor Swift. It is important to note that many analysts noted bumps in favor of Biden and the DNC after the 2024 Superbowl, thanks to Trump’s own stupidity in attacking yet another young woman. You can bet your silver dollar that those 16% undecided Youth voters are NEVER going to be throwing in with a slime like Donald Trump.
I am not a gambler, but those numbers and the picture I am seeing look fairly reassuring.
3) The RNC is too old, not Biden — and the RNC is getting older still
Take what I said about Covid-19 and the youth voters replenishing Democratic votes faster than Republicans, and now also add in the fact that the Republican voter base was old to begin with — and it is getting older.
70% Republican voters are currently over the age of 50. Every seven in ten Republicans are older than 50 years old. This is compared to 2020, where the number was 62%. This means the Republican party is failing to refill its ranks with a new generation of voters. This was already a massive problem in 2020, and now it is only worse.
www.pewresearch.org/…
4) Trump’s (The RNC’s) base is running out of steam
This one is easy to point out. Look no further than Trump’s rallies and the lackluster conservative turnout in every election post-2020.
I need not go into exhaustive detail here, but every Trump rally post-2020 has been lackluster. This Politico article (www.politico.com/...) highlights the general theme the best with:
”Last Saturday evening in Manchester, Trump spoke to a crowd of 5,000 inside a frigid minor league ice hockey stadium. Toward the end of his nearly two-hour speech, a soaring orchestral soundtrack came on over the PA system, and an American flag began billowing on the screen behind him. This was supposed to be the climactic culmination of his speech, but as Trump droned on — for five, 10, 15 minutes longer — even the supporters standing behind him on the stage started to look a little bored. Out in the stands, a steady stream of attendees trickled toward the exits.”
All the enthusiasm of a wet courtroom fart.
Let us also not neglect to look at the sheer stupidity of the RNC to attack mail-in ballots. This has cost them dearly since 2020. It is not a coincidence that Democratic vote numbers skyrocketed in the 2020 election at the same time mail-in absentee voting was also at an all time high. I remember being taught back in 2014 (as a freshman political science college student) that part the RNC’s secret to having almost every party member’s vote counted was mail-in voting. It allowed citizens to vote conveniently at any time, regardless of circumstance. Can’t drive? Mail-in. No polling centers within 80 miles of your home because you live on a ranch in Wyoming? Mail-in. Scared of political violence at polling centers? Mail-in. And what has the RNC done? Convinced their voters to not trust mail-in ballots at the same time Democratic voters embraced mail-in ballots. A literal overnight 180 U-turn on a pivotal electoral advantage. And the fools still have not straightened this error out — they’re still prattling about voter fraud and bamboo ballots.
What has this accomplished? Easily preventable lackluster RNC turnout. Just look at the New York special election where Suozzi won a “surprise” victory. When asked where all the Republicans were and why they didn’t vote, many answered that they couldn’t make it because of the weather (www.cityandstateny.com/...). Mail-in ballots, folks.
Overall, this can be witnessed in real time via the Republican Primary — it shows a visible schism within the Republican Party. Who’s the culprit? Trump himself of course. This Wall Street Journal video defines the Trump problem for the RNC and Trump’s own reelection in black and white:
Trump and the RNC need to expand their base in order to have a chance winning — not TO win, but to have a CHANCE at winning. The numbers we are seeing empirically shows that their base is both rapidly shrinking and fragmenting. Trump needs more voters than he got in 2020, and by all counts this will not be physically possible.
5-18) Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House
This discussion could be written into a book all by itself, so I will try to be as succinct as I can, while still being thorough.
Allan Lichtman’s thesis is that there are 13 determinable variables (keys) that can be used to analyze whether or not a candidate will be successful in their bid for the presidency. According to Lichtman, a candidate needs 8 keys in order to secure their election. I will go through each key here:
1) Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representative than after the previous midterm election.
This one is sticky but I still give this key to Biden and the DNC regardless. While we technically lost seats in the House of Representatives, we lost fewer than we were supposed to lose. We gained seats in districts that had voted to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and many of the seats we did lose were lost due to retirements or lost to districts that we demographically never should have held onto in the first place. I think it is fair to capitalize off of the failure of the “Red Wave” to materialize and give the point to Biden. At worst, you could make this point be a washout — in favor of neither Trump nor Biden.
2) No Primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
There isn’t. We are not looking at Bobby Kennedy butting heads with Johnson. The only Democrat who was actively trying to replace Biden was 4-delegate champion Dean Phillips — yeah, my reaction when I first heard of the guy was also, “Who?”
One point for Biden.
3) Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Despite Trump’s insisting, Barack Obama is not the sitting President.
One point to Biden. Next.
4) No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
All you’ve got is RFK Jr. He claims to have a worm in his brain. He is not exactly pulling off a 2016 Johnson. I don’t think the worm is doing him any favors. MSNBC summarizes RFK Jr.’s situation the best as follows (I recommend playing the Benny Hill Theme while reading this):
”Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. failed to qualify for the first presidential debate, which will be hosted by CNN next week. It’s the latest sign that Kennedy’s campaign is floundering.
On Thursday, CNN announced that Kennedy would not be allowed to participate in the presidential debate because he had failed to meet two of the criteria to qualify. First, he failed to receive at least 15% support in four national polls of registered or likely voters. Second, he has not yet gotten on enough ballots to win the Electoral College; Kennedy claims to be on the ballot in at least seven states, but remains far short of the 270-electoral-vote threshold to qualify under CNN’s rules…
He has been stuck hovering around 10% in the polls for months...”
www.msnbc.com/…
It is also intensely important to note that RFK Jr., in no way whatsoever, would be taking votes from Biden. RFK Jr., thanks to his lunacy, poses more of a credible threat to Trump’s Campaign, especially since they share many talking points.
Another point to Biden. Next.
5) Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Duh. This horse has continued to be beaten long after its death to the point where there is no horse left to beat — even FOX News conceded that the economy was doing well.
www.thewrap.com/…
Starting to feel like Dumbledore here — another point to House DNC and Biden.
6) Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Nothing left of the dead horse to continue beating. We have seen objective growth from the get-go, and we have seen things going well since at least 2022 — going from 2020 Covid to where we are now is an obvious growth.
More points for Biden.
7) Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Where do I even begin? Where in God’s name would I even begin with this topic? Covid-19 national policy. Our foreign policy with Russia and China (they are officially our enemies again, as they always have been). North Korea has been put back in the doghouse (imagining that traitor Trump schmoozing with Kim Jong Un, exchanging “love letters” — oh BLECH). We are actually fixing our roads and bridges. We are actually trying to go after corporations and support the common worker. I do not know where to begin — it’s a target rich environment.
I think a blind man could see the stark contrast between the Trump and Biden administration — don’t just take my word for it, look again at reason #2 Youth Voters. The people traditionally blind to politics, youth voters, have been eating up the new menu Biden and the DNC have been cooking up the past 4 years. At 28, I can attest to this. The cuisine is… patrioticly delicious.
Another point to Biden.
8) No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
The only snag here is the Gaza Protesters. I have my own problems with the implementation of the protesting about Gaza, namely they are shooting themselves in the foot by attacking the Biden Administration. Biden v Trump, who do you really think is more interested in protecting the lives of Palestinians???
The examples Lichtman have used in the past to highlight the 8th Key have been things like: the Vietnam Anti-War Protests, the Civil Rights Movement, and the riots that happened in Chicago during the 1968 DNC Convention. The Gaza Protests are no where near that level of unrest, and Lichtman himself has commented that the Gaza Protests have not met the threshold of concern. I do not reasonably foresee the protests reaching the described threshold, but to be “conservative” I will omit this key leaving it only tentatively in favor of Biden.
9) No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Biden being old is not a scandal. If you think Biden being old is a scandal, RFK Jr. would like to have his worm back — he gets head colds without his worm. Trump being impeached? That is a scandal. Nixon’s Watergate Adventure? This is a scandal. Biden has no scandal.
Points to Biden.
10) No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Lichtman looks to events like the Vietnam War as examples of foreign/military failures. You may see the Afghanistan withdrawal as a failure, but even so this failure is not on the scale to tip the balance of this key against Biden. This is especially true when you look at Biden’s other successes such as: He’s reunited NATO with the USA at its head, Biden has taken Russia and China head-on, Russia and China are objectively failing — economically and militarily, the US is now back at the top of the leaderboard on all marks, and etc. This is juxtaposed to the RNC and Trump Administration’s bumbles — so much so that it has even been floated here that the DNC is now the “strong foreign policy” party, not the RNC.
Of course there could be a disaster in Ukraine or Gaza that could taint Biden. I find the likelihood of these events, however, to be slim to none. There is a next to 0% chance Ukraine will fall, at least before the 2024 election, and if Israel really pushes ahead with its genocide Biden will wash his hands of Netanyahu completely (there’s a reason why Kamala Harris has been sent to talk with the liberal leaders of Israel in the opposition party — this mirrors when Obama sent Biden to talk with Xi, shortly before Xi took power in China).
11) Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs
Russia and China have been exposed as Paper Tigers, the US was put back as the top dog of the most powerful military alliance to exist since the heyday of the Holy Roman Empire, NATO was expanded, and the US now has dominance over the energy market thanks to the discovery of the largest oil shales in existence (under Texas and NY). There is so much oil that we have now, that we can influence the oil market prices as we please — not Russia or Saudi Arabia. This power projection was put into practice just this week. The Saudis tried to raise the oil prices for the 4th of July, Biden released 1 million barrels of American oil onto the market, and the oil prices stayed nice and low for the holiday (so much so, even local news outlets reported the surprisingly low gas prices).
Yet another point to Biden.
12) Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Listen to these videos, and then try to tell me with a straight face that Joe Biden is not charismatic:
Charisma is not screeching into a microphone that you are going to kill anyone who gets in your path. Charisma is having the fortitude to know what is right and then beckoning people to follow you in doing what is right. Many may disagree with my analysis here of “sleepy Joe,” but I give this point emphatically to Biden.
13) Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Read the transcript of Katie Johnson v. Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein (2016). www.slideshare.net/…
This cowardly bastard is not charismatic.
Another point, decidedly in favor of Biden.
If you kept count, that’s 11 points I confidently give to Joe Biden — the exceptions being Keys 1 and 8. If the Gaza Protests are kept down, then Biden gets 12 keys. If you agree with me in considering Key 1 should be in Biden’s favor, then Biden gets all 13 God damned Keys. Biden needs 8 to win.
Allan Lichtman himself is giving Biden 7 Keys, as of right now. Lichtman has stated several times, however, that he cannot comment on any of the other keys at the moment because he believes it is too early to tell for a certainty. I do not have a professional career hinging on the 13 Keys, so I am willing to be a little less conservative. Hopefully, my explanations are enough proof to support my confidence.
Allan Lichtman has been correct with every prediction he has made with his 13 Keys since 1984 (including the 2016 election), and his Keys are also consistent with every Presidential Election going back to Washington. Lichtman was only technically wrong once — with Bush v Gore. Lichtman predicted that Gore would win. Gore did win, from an election point.
I won’t go into exhaustive detail here about the SCOTUS screwing things up in 2024, but I truly would not fret too much about this contingency. Biden holds the White House, and thereby the US Military, and so if the SCOTUS attempted to pull of a coup d'état by repeating Bush v Gore, I like our chances more than theirs. Of course this would be the nightmare, potentially Civil War, scenario, but I still like our odds in this regard. Biden wouldn’t permit that failure — full stop, end of discussion.
19) “Hit’em Where It Hurts”
Rachel Bitecofer (my Patron Saint of new-wave DNC Strategy) first popped up on the political radar in 2018 when she predicted correctly that there would be a Blue Wave. Bitecofer then continued to gain recognition by predicting Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020, and accurately predicted how he would be defeated (forecasting the Democratic Sweep of the Blue Wall Midwest States).
Bitecofer, in her book Hit’em Where It Hurts, explains how Republican victories have been the product of a concerted effort to manipulate the system and the minds of voters since the 1950s. She describes how the most successful motivator of voters en masse is not witty statistics or educated talking points from Ivy League Liberals but fear. Fear gets the so-called “lazy” voter off of their couch and out to the ballot box. “They’re coming for your jobs — they’re coming for your religion — they’re coming to assault your women — THEY’RE COMING!” In the RNC’s case, all lies, but effective.
Bitecofer’s thesis is that the DNC needs to channel what has made the RNC so effective at winning elections. Use the truth — the RNC really is coming after you — scare the population into voting, and then secure power from the RNC. So stupidly simple, it’s genius.
Just look at this disgusting Pro-Gun advertisement:
“sHaLl nOt bE inFrINg-” shut the hell up. Anyway. Now look at this DNC ad:
www.instagram.com/…
See the similarities? “THEY’RE COMING…. FOR YOU.” In our case, however, the threat is real. If it did not feel so Bond-Villainesque to scare people like this, I would love it. I cannot argue with results, however.
Know where Bitecofer has been working since 2020? For the DNC under Joe Biden. Bitecofer has said that Biden is making everyone utilize her strategy in their elections, and Bitecofer has said that her and the DNC team have seen a 100% success rate with her strategy. You can watch a nice long discussion of how her expertise is being put to use in this podcast:
20) Biden
Biden himself is 100% all in. Just look at all the damned places Biden is going to be zinging to all of this month, while still running the damned country.
abcnews.go.com/…
ny1.com/…
The guy may be old, but he is acting Toyota Camry old. 300,000 miles, with another 100,000 miles still left in the engine.
The worst mistake anyone has ever made in American politics is to underestimate Joe Biden. There’s a very good reason why he’s been able to play this game for so many decades — he is one of the best at it.
21) You and me
I will not allow Biden and the DNC to fail. You will not allow Biden and the DNC to fail. People like us oversaw the Blue Wave in 2018, Trump’s defeat in 2020, the capitulation of the 2022 Red Wave, and together we will succeed again and again.
Biden says it the best: “We are Americans, and there is nothing nothing nothing we cannot do when we work together.”
That is why we are winning.
If even still you continue to feel doubt. If you still think I am a fool to say this. If you STILL PERSIST that Biden has to drop out, that we’re doomed, Trump is going to win, or whatever, then I challenge you with this:
Can you tell yourself, “We are going to lose, but I have done everything I can. I have done enough,” while looking yourself in the eye in a mirror? If you can, then God bless you, no one can change your mind. But if you insist we will lose and you cannot tell yourself this one-liner, then get the heck out and do something! Pitch in!
We have this. We are winning.
