The view is from our patio at The Quadrangle, the Continuing Care Retirement Community that is our new home. I sit outside with a cool breeze blowing to write this post, as myu wife sleeps inside and the three cats amuse themselves.
We took legal possession of our apartment in mid-May, and I began to move things in my care 142 miles from our house in Arlington VA in which we had lived since 1984, either to the apartment or to one of now two storage units we need for the overflow in possessions (primarily books)_ until we can fully downsize. The movers came on June 25, but we were not fully ready for them. They loaded what they could and we continued to downsize, pack, and move things north in my car. They delivered our things on the 27th and we began to unpack and organize, and continue to downsize and give things away. We had almost 100 large bags of trash removed from the house. The apartment is still too cluttered, but it is becoming more livable. We have gotten to know a few of the other residents, know of others (three former professors at nearby Haverford College with whom I overlapped, one now 102 years old and still going for his morning walks). My wife has her firt appointment with her enew oncologist, we have established a relationship with a local pharmacy that delivers for free, we have a vet appointment for our oldest cat (now 15 with some issues), and next week we will get PA drivers’ licenses and see about registering our cars (a bit complicated). We will have paperwork to do,We are starting to adjust to our new life, where my wife will focus on her own research and writing. And me? It is possible that I will continue to teach, either part-time or full-time, in an independent school. We have some connections that can help in that regard.
But I also expect to again be more active here, even as I will not attend this year’s relatively nearby Netroots Nation (because we still have so much to do to settle in). So let me begin that process by reflecting on some of the recent events that concern at least most of the denizens of this site.
Until the debate I had opined to my wife that I expected that Biden would win by a larger margin than in 2020, by ten million or more votes. Regardless of what the public polling said (and I do look at what is available in internals such as order/framing of questions, crosstabs, population being plled (adults, registered voters, likely voters), and whether there is any tweaking to fit a model of the electorate), I also looked at other factors. PA, MI, WI, and AZ all have Democrats (or in PA a sensible Republican appointed by a Dem Governor) holding the positions with the greatest impact on elections: Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. Nevada has a Republican Governor but Dems in control of everything else. NC has Dems as Gov and AG. Republicans have nominated some real problematic candidates down-ballot, especially in NC (not just Mark Robinson). Dems have continued to over-perform significantly in almost all special elections. Abortion continues to fuel that over-performance, and now states are having voter initiatives to protect choice, including in some very unlikely places.
The debate rules favored Trump because CNN agreed not to fact check in real time, not even in the chyron. That allowed Trump to do an extensive Gish Gallop and flood the airwaves with easily debunked BS. It took about an hour before Biden began to find his footing. The campaign’s response since the debate has not been strong, and the press focus on Biden’s supposed elements of “senioritis” without equivalent examination of not only Trump’s outright dishonesty but also his failings (physical and mental) are too reminiscent of 2016 and “but her emails” to make any of us comfortable.
I do not personally know Joe Biden. I had one conversation with him at a PA State Democratic Convention in1983, when I was a volunteer with the Hollings campaign (and I brought Peatsy Hollings and Terry Sanford to that event on behalf of Sen. Hollings, who was one of the pwoplw, long with Ted Kennedy ahd then staffer and latter Congressman Nick Rahall who persuaded Biden to take his seat after his wife and daughter were called and his two sons badly injured in a car accident-I was serving at PA field director for the campaign). But I know a lot about him. He is a fighter, not a quitter, which can make it somewhat hard for him to step back from a campaign where he legitimately believes the other candidate is a danger to the country, and beyond that, that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump and there is time — and resources — to turn things around. He is also quite aware of the possibility of real internal turmoil should he withdraw from the campaign. He is quite aware that were he to be replaced by anyone except VP Harris the campaign would be over, because Black women would stay home.
There are only a few people who can persuade him that his continued presence on the ticket is a detriment. His wife Dr. Jill Biden clearly could, but unless she thinks he will be embarrassed by continued incidents will not push him. Jim Clyburn, whom I know somewhat, clearly can talk bluntly to him. Beyond that? Barack Obama might be able to but will NOT directly offer his opinion unless Biden asks for it. Right now I suspect he’d be willing to give Biden a week or so to see what happens. Similarly with his former Chief of Staff Ron Klain, who will only offer his opinion if directly asked.
Trying to pressure him publicly or even semi-publicly, as folks like Angie Craig and Mark Warner have done, will largely be counter-productive.
I do not think Biden’s situation is irreversible, but if he cannot affectuate a change in how the media as a whole is acting, it MAY discourage the kind of turnout necessary to carry the electoral college. MAY, not will. They can even continue to focus on his supposed limitation provided they also provide coverage of things like Trump’s lies, his mental failings, Project 2025, the actions of the Supreme Court, etc. I note things like the Philadelphia Inquirer editorializing that it is Trump that should withdraw. The Biden campaign can still focus on tons of accomplishments, the strength of the economy (unemployment and inflation down, jobs and the stock market up) as well as the real dangers Republicans and Trump pose — to the environment, to voting rights, to minorities of many kinds, to the rule of law, to the very basis of a liberal democracy.
There is also the real possibility of a backlash against the media focus on Biden’s “failings” — note, I am not saying that the campaign should directly attack the media, but it should regularly comment on the imbalance.
Stopping politics for a moment: 6 Canada Geese are now on the lawn about 25 yards away from me, and coming closer. And now within ten yards!
I do view Trump and his ilk as real threats to the US, as flawed as it may be otherwise. My wife and I had a serious discussion several years ago about the possibility of moving to another country. She has lived in England several times, but it would be impossible to take our cats. She has Canadian relatives and through acquaintances we knew how we could get residency, but as a scholar of American History she would be very far from the resources she needed to do her work — and I am not sure how much of an interest there would be in an aging teacher whose experience has been largely of American Government and History. I do not think those of us on Social Security would see our current benefits slashed or eliminated, because that would be too damaging to Republican support among seniors, but we might not be protected with cost of living adjustments. I have been outspoken enough to possibly be in some jeopardy in a 2nd Trump administration, except that I am probably not significant enough to focus on.
I look out over the lawn, The geese have now gone around the corner. A chipmunk darts past the patio.perhaps 24 inches from my bare feet. I see a black squirrel and am reminded that such is the mascot of my nearby alma mater. I hear and see various birds. I sip my morning coffee. It is peaceful. A large blue jay is now on the ground 6 feet away.
I cannot ignore the threats to this country. I cannot withdraw completely from politics. At age 78 I no longer have the energy for full-time political activity. While this community is predominantly liberal, there are some Trump supporters here and as new residents we do not wish to disturb the comity of the community.
But I can speak out online. I can respond when others ask me what I think and why. We will both definitely vote, with our votes being more meaningful in PA than they would have been in VA.
But mainly we will settle into what is now the rest of our lives, hoping our health holds up well enough to have a number of years to still enjoy one another’s company.
