• AR Ballot & NE Ballot: Reproductive rights advocates in Nebraska and Arkansas both submitted signatures last week to place amendments guaranteeing the right to an abortion on their respective states' ballots this fall. However, election officials still need to determine whether each measure―as well as a rival amendment in Nebraska backed by conservatives―will qualify for the ballot.
A group called Protect Our Rights, which is spearheading the abortion rights effort in Nebraska, says that it submitted about 207,000 signatures, which the campaign said was the most in state history.
Supporters need the state to validate about 123,000 signatures―a figure that represents 10% of the state's registered voters―and that they've hit certain targets in at least 38 of Nebraska's 93 counties. These geographic requirements hinder progressives in a state where the "bluest" two-fifths of counties still include some dark-red rural areas, but the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford writes that unnamed "[p]olitical observers" anticipate that it will qualify.
Those observers, however, have the same expectations for a rival plan from a conservative group called Protect Women and Children, which says it turned in 205,000 signatures. Sanderford writes that election officials have a total of 40 days to verify signatures for each amendment, "plus a little time to transport signatures for verification."
The amendment proposed by Protect Our Rights would allow abortions to take place until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The conservative plan, by contrast, would enshrine the 12-week ban the legislature approved last year into the state constitution. The amendment would also allow lawmakers to pass more restrictive bans, something that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen previewed last year when he pledged to "end abortion."
If both amendments pass, the state constitution says that the one with the most "yes" votes "shall thereby become law as to all conflicting provisions." A tracking poll from Civiqs shows that a 52-43 majority of Nebraska voters say that abortion should be legal all or most of the time, though Sanderford relays that unreleased surveys show both amendments "have polled well."
Arkansans for Limited Government, meanwhile, says it turned in about 101,000 signatures on behalf of its proposal to restore abortion rights in the state. The group needs the state to validate 90,704 of them―a figure that represents 10% of the ballots cast in the most recent gubernatorial election.
A potentially bigger impediment, however, is a new GOP law that also requires organizers to reach certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties, a major hurdle for progressives given that Joe Biden carried only eight of the state's counties in 2020. Supporters say that they've hit their goals in 53 counties, though they acknowledged that "we just have to wait" to see if election officials agree.
The Associated Press says that the secretary of state's office has 30 days to validate signatures, though backers may get more time if their initial haul falls short. The state grants campaigns an additional 30 days to gather signatures if election officials say they're 75% of the way to the target both statewide and in 50 separate counties.
But even if the measure does qualify, the campaign will have to convince a very conservative state to actually pass it. A tracking survey from Civiqs illustrates just how high that hurdle is: A 52-44 majority of Arkansas voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time.
Advocates, however, hope that anger at the state's near-total abortion ban will buoy their amendment, which would allow the procedure to take place up to 18 weeks into a pregnancy. It also would guarantee the right to an abortion in several instances, including rape, incest, or to protect the mother.
