The good news today is the just-announced prisoner swap with Russia. This is a victory for Biden and doubtless reflects a great deal of behind the scenes negotiating by diplomats. I suspect it is also another indicator of the shift in the wind concerning the upcoming election.
We all know that polls are unreliable by their very nature, by how they are conducted, and by who commissions them. For that reason, it helps to look at other indicators. Personally, I always look at the political betting odds. Pundits can say whatever they think attracts readers or viewers, but bettors have their hard-earned cash at risk and the smart ones are rigorous in making their investments. To date the betting odds have been pretty grim.
Another indicator is the actions of foreign officials and leaders. When Europe feared another Trump term, they started making contingency plans. As for Vladimir Putin, it had looked like he was hoping for a second Trump win, and planned to get bonus points by helping Trump along, as he did the first time. The hostage situation is little reminiscent of the 1980 Iranian hostage situation.
At that time, the situation was ripe for a hostage release, but Reagan managed to work surreptitiously to temporarily derail the release — helping him defeat Carter based on Carter’s apparent inability to solve the problem — giving Reagan a big triumph as he took office. It looked a little like the same thing this time around. Putin would hold the hostages before the election, Trump would make a big deal about how he could solve the situation while Biden couldn’t, and then after the election Putin would agree to a swap, giving the credit to Trump. Trump for his part would owe Putin yet another favor.
In light of this probable scenario, I think Putin agreeing to the swap now suggests that his analysis of the situation in the US has shifted, and he now feels Harris will win. If holding the prisoners no longer gives Trump enough of an edge to win, it is in Putin’s best interest to switch sides and do Biden/Harris a favor. He has a lot of ground to make up in getting on better terms with an ongoing administration, and this is a step in that direction. Bottom line is he may think Trump is now a lost cause.
I take some comfort in that.
