I recently published a diary titled “Russia Has Already Lost the War.” In it, I argue that the Ukrainian war will wind down in a year or so. If the Ukrainian incursion into Russia is sustained, the war may culminate even faster. This leads to the question of what peace will look like in Ukraine.
So, let’s assume that fighting has stopped, and the front will be frozen pending negotiations. For the purposes of this exercise, we also assume Ukraine has made gains but has not liberated all its territories. Total victory is the goal, but if it is not achieved, not all is lost, as you will see.
Russia’s going-in position most likely is that it wants to retain the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies. This will be a non-starter for several diplomatic and practical reasons. First, NATO and Ukraine have little reason to agree to this; it would essentially reward Russia for its aggressive actions and set a dangerous precedent. For instance, Putin would now think he could invade the Baltic states and get away with it.
In practical terms, if Russia is holding onto Ukrainian territory, there is no incentive to lift sanctions on Russia. They will still not have access to their frozen international currency reserves, the international banking system, or badly needed foreign investment. Oil and gas markets will be constricted, and other financial sanctions will not be lifted. This will all cripple the Russian economy in the long term. Russian oligarchs won’t be able to access their yachts and mansions in Europe indefinitely, which will undoubtedly piss them off, but probably not enough to go against Putin.
Also, the territory they claim is where the fighting has taken place and is devastated. Russia has planted millions of mines, there is an enormous amount of unexploded ordinance, and cities, towns, and hamlets have been devastated by their artillery and bombs. Prime farmland is now unusable, and factories and businesses have been destroyed. Russia would be on the hook to rebuild all this. Given their history, I expect Russian rebuilding efforts will result in massive levels of corruption, substandard construction, a half-assed attempt to clear mines, and brutal living standards for people in occupied Ukraine. And I dread them from trying to repair any dams they blew up, given the number of dams failing in Russia. Russian hydraulic engineering isn’t what it used to be.
Speaking of blowing up dams, Crimea is already running out of water because Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam. Ukraine has no incentive to rebuild the dam to supply water to Crimea if Russia occupies it. The little water that is left goes to the military and resorts run by the Russians. Ordinary Ukrainians in Crimea are pretty much screwed.
Russia should propose giving up all Ukrainian territories for sanctions relief. This won’t happen while Putin is still alive. He can’t and won’t admit defeat. He will try to hold on to Ukrainian territory and let Russians suffer from sanctions. This may be the fate of the peace until Putin dies or is replaced. Once he is gone, true peace can be achieved unless he is replaced with another hard-liner. Then all bets are off for a permanent peace deal.
We could wind up with an uneasy peace that resembles the Korean War armistice. Technically, North and South Korea have been at war since 1953, but this has not prevented South Korea from becoming an economic powerhouse. The same thing can happen in Ukraine.
Ukraine will have access to international banks and investors to rebuild the country. Eventually, they will become part of the European Union, opening another pot of money for investments and infrastructure building. More importantly, it will cement Ukraine’s pivot to the West and integrate them into the European economy. Ukraine’s economy will take off, while Russia’s economy will be permanently damaged.
Under the armistice, Ukraine’s military will fully convert to NATO-standard equipment. More importantly, Ukraine is becoming a producer of NATO military hardware itself. Ukraine has a robust defense industry and was a major exporter of weapons before 2014, when Russia invaded Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. After that, exports dropped but can easily be revived with new investments. They have the capacity to produce advanced tanks, combat vehicles, aircraft, missiles, and drones.
It will be interesting to see how the Ukrainian Air Force transforms as it converts to NATO-standard aircraft. They have started the conversion by introducing the F-16 but may also employ other NATO-standard fighters.
Ukraine’s ability to rapidly produce a variety of drones could also be a boon for NATO. NATO could work with Ukraine to build out its own drone fleet using the lessons learned from the Ukrainians, if not buying directly from them.
The last question is whether Ukraine is allowed to join NATO. The answer is complicated and may take time to resolve. The issue is that, under an armistice, Ukraine is technically still at war, even if the fighting has stopped. If Russia decides to re-attack Ukraine in the future, NATO will have to mobilize to defend it if it is a member of NATO. That bridge may be too far for them, but who knows? NATO may prefer to send aid but not troops and aircraft. In that scenario, Ukraine is integrated militarily with NATO but not a full member. Think of them as being a quasi-member, something like NATO-lite. The Russians must fight a revived Ukrainian military equipped with near-state-of-art weapons and advanced NATO training and doctrine. I don’t think the Russians will be up to that challenge. So, I think that Ukraine will win the war and peace.
On a personal note, I want to thank all contributors to the Ukraine feed on DK. Without them, I could not have written this diary.
The link to my previous diary is provided below for your reference.
www.dailykos.com/…
