State Sen. John Mannion is the incumbent for the 50th district of New York and the first Democrat to hold the seat in more than 50 years. He was able to win this open seat in 2020 and then had a hard-fought election in 2022. He was predicted to lose his seat and was even down by 396 votes on Election Day. He won his New York state senate seat by a mere 10 votes. Absentee ballots gave him enough votes to get to a recount and ultimately victory.
A Central New York judge ruled Monday afternoon that incumbent state Senator John Mannion has won the hotly contested 50th New York Senate race by 10 votes over challenger Rebecca Shiroff.
That’s 10 votes out of 123,148 votes or a 0.008% difference.
The 29-page decision by state Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte narrowed Mannion’s razor-thin victory from 17 votes down to 10 votes after a judicial review. There were more than 123,000 votes cast in the district, which spans parts of Onondaga and Oswego counties.
He has experience in running and winning in a swing seat. He narrowly lost a similar district in 2018 and ultimately won it in 2020 when the previous incumbent retired. Now, he’s gunning for a bigger prize: a seat in the House of Representatives. The district is held by Trump-endorsed Rep. Brandon Williams, a MAGA Republican who took over for a genuine moderate Republican.
The question is whether or not John Mannion is helped by this experience running in close elections.
Like reading election-themed articles? I am continuing a massive series of them each Sunday and Wednesday morning! Make sure to follow #SaveTheMajority and the group Save the Majority so you don’t miss important races down the ballot!
Rep. Brandon Williams is part of what I am calling the #Beatable16. The Good News Roundup team is fundraising for the Democrats running for the 16 House districts Biden won in 2020 and the Republicans won in 2022.
DONATE TO THE BEATABLE16 FUND TO DEFEAT THE #BEATABLE16!
John Mannion for New York-22
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE
What’s the Big Idea?
THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+3 PVI
NY-22 precinct results from 2022.
This district has frustrated Democratic strategists for a long time. Despite it voting for our presidential nominees in nearly every election, it tends to send “moderate” Republicans to Congress. GOP Rep. James Walsh epitomized this trend, as he stayed in Congress for a very long time and was rarely effectively challenged.
Walsh retired in 2008, which was of course a HUGE blue wave year. That allowed Dan Maffei to win the Syracuse district for the first Democratic win in a very long time. Rep. Maffei would be one of the most shocking defeats during the 2010 red wave, as Tea Party Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle narrowly knocked off the incumbent by a few hundred votes.
Buerkle only lasted one term, as Rep. Maffei would come back and launch a successful challenge in the Syracuse district in 2012. Maffei could never hold the district more than one term as 2014 proved. During the red wave that year, Maffei went down to a huge defeat to John Katko. We are talking about a 60-40 defeat, which is a large amount for an incumbent in a swing seat to lose by.
Rep. John Katko was never effectively challenged during his stint in Congress. The closest anyone could come was holding them to 53% of the vote in both 2018 and 2020. Otherwise, he comfortably cruised to re-election each time. His personal calculus changed when he voted to impeach Trump after 1/6. He knew he would never survive a primary election, so he retired in 2022 instead.
That opened the door for Democrats to win this district once again in a district Biden won in 2020. Francis Conole gave it his best shot but he still lost to Brandon Williams 50.5% to 49.5% in a terrible year for New York Democratic candidates.
What gives our party additional hope in ousting the first-term Williams in 2024 are the changes in the Congressional map since 2022. The district is now bluer with Biden winning 54.6% to 43.2%. This is about 4 points bluer than the previous district. In addition, only 268,608 voters cast a ballot in 2022 while 319,638 did so in 2020. Those missing voters could potentially be Democrats who sat on their hands last cycle and could put Mannion over the top.
Here’s where this 22nd district race will be won.
-
Syracuse: This city is the anchor of the entire district, and it is important for Mannion to run up the score in this city. There is also the University of Syracuse to consider, which is another source of rich but unreliable votes.
-
Utica: While not as big or as blue as Syracuse, this city in Upstate New York is equally as important to Mannion as Syracuse. He will have to win the city to have a chance of winning the district. Needless to say, a poor showing will cause a bunch of consternation on election day.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
-
Cortland and Auburn: These small cities lean Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. Mannion will have to seriously contest these cities in order to flip the district. The countryside surrounding the cities is red and will be a drag on his chances to win.
-
Madison County: This county does have some blue precincts, but the majority of this more rural county is red. Combined with the rural sections of Oneida County to the north, it is a formidable bunch of terrain for Mannion to campaign in. He won’t do well in these parts.
John Mannion: From Teacher to Politician
John Mannion was born in 1968 in Syracuse, New York. His ancestors were Irish immigrants who settled in the Syracuse area 100 years ago. Before entering politics, Mannion taught biology and chemistry at a local high school. The degradation of teaching and a lack of funding that drove him to run for the state legislature. He will be strong on issues related to education if elected to Congress, especially in directing funds to the classroom and resisting the standardizing testing regime.
Another area where Mannion will shine is his advocacy for people with disabilities. He chairs the NY Senate Committee on Disabilities and has shepherded through wide-ranging legislation from funding organizations that boost opportunities for those with disabilities to a cost of living increase in the disability support pension. Mannion will look out for the most vulnerable members of our society!
Mannion has one crowning achievement in his nearly four years as a state senator. He helped secure a $100B investment by the chip maker Micron for facilities in his district. The Green Chips legislation (which provides low-cost power to the computer chip industry) was one of the determining factors in this decision, and Mannion was one of the most prominent legislators pushing to pass this in New York.
Mannion also wants to transition our economy from a fossil fuel-based one to a green economy. He proposes nuclear power as a bridge to transition to solar and wind power in the future. He also is a leader on protecting the environment.
There is possible trouble from Mannion’s state senate tenure. Three former staffers allege that our challenger fostered a hostile work environment. This included remarks that were sexist, homophobic, retaliatory, and harrassing. The New York State Senate has opened an ethics investigation into these claims and Mannion is cooperating. He obviously denies the charges but it will certainly make attack ad fodder for Republicans.
Rep. Brandon Williams: MAGA to the Core
Rep. Brandon Williams was born in 1967 to a prominent corporate attorney in the Dallas, Texas area. Williams bounced around to different colleges including Baylor, Harvard, and Pepperdine. Right before his senior year, he volunteered with World Vision International in Africa and contracted a severe case of malaria. This delayed his graduation from Pepperdine with a degree in liberal arts.
In 1991, Williams decided to join the US Navy. He served as an officer aboard the submarine USS Georgia and rising to lieutenant. After leaving the Navy in 1996, he would complete an MBA from Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He joined the corporate world and founded two different businesses. This included an IT firm that helped "large industrial manufacturers modernize their production plants, secure their critical infrastructure from cyber attacks, and pave the way for reduced emissions through advances in artificial intelligence.”
Williams eventually wound up in New York after purchasing a 67-acre farm Upstate. The farm focuses on bees, lavender, and truffles. His farm was the first one to successfully grow truffles as far north as it did. Mycologists have visited the farm to study how the Williams family was able to accomplish this feat.
Williams is a MAGA true believer and ran as such in the primary to replace Rep. Katko. The New York GOP power brokers endorsed a different and more moderate candidate, leaving Williams to run as a political outsider. His victories in the primary and in the general election were both seen as upsets due to his views.
Williams has also shown no signs of moderating his views while in Congress. His views on abortion are abhorrent with support for jailing doctors, outlawing IVF treatments, and ripping away insurance that covers abortion care. He claims to be for the usual exceptions and for letting the states decide abortion rights but it is obvious he would sign onto a national abortion ban in a heartbeat.
Williams is also a political hypocrite and serial flip-flopper. He was against the CHIPS and Science Act until Micron announced their $100B investment and then he suddenly became a leading advocate for the law. He was open to the bipartisan border security bill being negotiated until Trump decreed that the bill should be killed. Williams then flip-flopped to oppose the bill.
Mannion may have issues with staffers, but so does Rep. Brandon Williams. He has the 3rd highest amount of staff turnover in the House, churning through inexperienced MAGA acolytes very quickly. He threatened an ex-staffer at a 2023 Christmas party which was captured on video. Williams claimed the ex-staffer had threatened to expose his daughter’s personal details.
For a district that elects moderates from both parties, Rep. Brandon Williams doesn’t act or vote like a moderate. Upstate New York can do much better than a MAGA true believer representing them.
How Can You Help?
John Mannion obviously won the primary election on June 25th, but he did so while raising less funds and then expending most of them to win. Mannion only had $341k left to run his campaign at the close of June. He’s definitely one challenger that could use donations as Rep. Brandon Williams has $1.36M stored away. Small dollar donations are closer, but there’s a gap even there. I’ve included a link to donate to him at both the top and the bottom of the article. Maybe being added to Red to Blue will help with his fundraising.
The ad race will be very heated in the media markets covered by the district. Syracuse and Utica will see a combined $3.5M from Democratic-aligned groups and an astounding $9.4M from GOP-leaning groups to defend this seat. Usually the ad spending is near parity, but it is clear that the GOP sees this race as key to retaining the House.
If you live in the Syracuse area, there are plenty of canvassing operations for John Mannion and other Democrats. Every weekend, there are multiple times listed for canvassing in Syracuse proper. If that doesn’t work with your schedule, try weekday canvassing in Syracuse instead! The campaign is also canvassing in Auburn and Utica which are both critical areas for Mannion to overperform.
If canvassing isn’t for you, there is the option of registering voters at the Syracuse Health Center. These recurring events happen on Fridays and are critical to securing a victory for John Mannion. Spots are limited so if you are interested don’t hesitate to join!
John Mannion has the swing seat credentials to seriously contest and win this district. He has deep roots in the Syracuse community and if elected will serve it well. Many but not all ratings aggregators rate this as “Leans Democratic”, but with the staffer scandal I rate it as a Tossup out of an abundance of caution.
Unlike John Mannion, Rep. Brandon Williams has shown no hint of moderation in his political views. This is what makes him so out of step with the district. According to Daily Kos Elections, he sits in the 5th most vulnerable seat held by the GOP. In order to win back the House of Representatives, our side must certainly beat Williams and win NY-22.
The question for John Mannion is whether winning in a swing seat has prepared him for what is to come.
John Mannion for New York-22
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE
Let's take back the House by targeting the 16 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the Beatable16 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable16
