Russia has the second-best army in the world. Its navy is ranked third. As Ukraine is fighting against Russia’s invasion, the gap between the US and Russian army widens. The same could be happening with the Russian navy, putting it farther behind the US and China. Here are Russia’s naval woes, brought on by the invasion.
“Where’s the fleet?” The politician knows the answer: it’s under. Under repair or under the Black Sea. For the submarine Rostov-on-Don, it was both, sequentially.
After he asked, various news outlets supplied a detailed answer. Take a look at the ships of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed or damaged by Ukraine, when and how. It’s eye candy. Then read the excellent essanews article: Black sea fleet struggles: Russia's naval setbacks exposed. It’s just a five-minute read. But I made a summary of sorts, for extra schadenfreude.
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Navy Day in Russia takes place on the last Sunday of July. This year it was a sad affair. It was shortened in St. Petersburg from traditionally a week of festivities to one day. Small parades were held only in remote towns (Vladivostok among them), far from the reach of Ukrainian drones and missiles. Everything was canceled in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
Pro-Kremlin personalities like to voice outrage early and loud, so citizens don’t get to — they might build up discontent in the process. On or around Navy Day, Yevgeny Fedorov, deputy Chairman of the State Duma, fumed over the BSF.
"There is no Russian Navy as an operational mechanism in the Black Sea! Neither physically nor in terms of its real combat presence… Where is the fleet? It's gone. This is really a victory of the enemy.”
He’s right on both counts. The fleet is gone. And it’s a huge victory for Ukraine, a country with no navy. In June, one month after the missile-carrier corvette Tsiklon was hit and maybe sunk, Russia moved its Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea and into the Sea of Azov. Only submarines stayed behind, to launch Kaliber cruise missiles.
There are problems with the Russian navy and its absence from the Black Sea will bring on more.
Ships of the BSF are generally inadequate for sustained warfare. There are a number of Project 11356R Burevestnik-class frigates. These ships don’t do well in winds stronger than 20 mph (5 on the Beaufort scale.) They have 1990s weapons systems and capabilities. (Per Wikipedia, Russia has built an upgraded version for India, but the BSF frigates have remained basic.) The Project 11356R frigates can only carry Kalibr missiles, and these are often intercepted by Ukraine’s air defense. They have no defense systems against sea drones and aerial threats. Like the Project 22160 Vasily Bykov-class patrol ships, they are lightly armed with just 9K38 Igla surface-to-air systems, six-barreled 30 mm AK-630M cannons, and heavy machine guns.
The Russians tried to install the Tor-M2KM anti-aircraft system on all four Vasily Bykov-class corvettes. But one of the four ships was sunk and two were damaged before the task was done.
At this point, Russian ships are not suitable for full-scale military operations. Yevgeny Fedorov rages: And the fact that the ships are still there somewhere, somewhere in Sevastopol or Novorossiysk, well, perhaps they are. But they do not exist in terms of a strategic combat unit. That is, they do not control the Black Sea.”
To shelter its ships from drone and missile strikes, the Russian navy had to pull them back to Novorossiysk, in the Krasnodar Krai. But this port can’t host many ships, so smaller ones moved to the Caspian Sea.
Novorossiysk doesn’t have enough mooring places and maneuvering room for the ships. Russia is building a naval base in Ochamchire (captured during the war with Georgia) to eventually host frigates, submarines and corvettes. By moving their largest ships to Ochamchire, the Russians admit they can’t defend Sevastopol and Novorossikysk.
Each time the Russian navy loses a ship, it likely loses crews who gained experience on the job. These are hard to replace. The Russian training system is rigid and doesn’t provide the skills and knowledge needed to perform varied tasks. For example, Russian sailors can’t hit a target even with modern fire control systems on board ships.
Infrastructure-wise, the BSF has to give up Sevastopol as its main base because it’s regularly under attack. One attack hit two ships while they were on slipways. Novorosskysk and Ochamchire can’t replace Sevastopol because they are more port workshops than shipyards. Inspections and repairs which should be done after every two years of continuous seagoing can’t be provided there. As a result, ships will sail less and less often.
The Russians have lost the sea war but they keep making mistakes in their navy. Their command doesn’t think. Drills leading into Navy Day didn’t include fights with maritime drones or protection of base areas. For two years the Russians have failed to adapt.
My conclusion: By losing at least 26 ships, Russia has lost control of the Black Sea. It’s a victory for Ukraine and a blow to the Russian navy. Ukraine has resumed its agricultural exports. The BSF has lost one third of its firepower and Sevastopol as its main base. If the surviving fleet doesn’t get proper maintenance, unseaworthy ships won’t take part in maritime missions. The Russian navy might be facing the same death spiral as the Russian air force.
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Update:
Just as Ukraine announced there are no more ships in the Black Sea, this Friday seven missile carrier ships were spotted. Four were headed toward the Bosporus Strait, so three must still be in the vicinity.
Updated at 10:18am after feedback from subtropolis:
There were only two missile carrier ships, not seven, spotted in the Black Sea. Separately, there were seven other ships which entered the Black Sea, with four headed for the Bosporus Strait. ...
Friday night, Ukrainian drones took out a KS 701 “Tunets” patrol boat, used not only for patrolling the waters but also for transporting goods.
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If the Russian navy won’t keep away from the Black Sea, Ukraine will make sure it ends up with the same number of ships as the Ukrainian navy, and that is: zero (paraphrase of Forbes David Axe). Which will accelerate its death spiral.
