Arizona certified the abortion-rights initiative putting it on the November ballot. Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers helped collect 62,844 signatures for this as they knocked on doors in the Spring and early Summer.
But that isn’t really the news i wanted to write about today. Rather, Hope Springs volunteers will be continuing to canvass and collect critical data about the Reproductive Freedom amendment in Arizona, Florida and Nevada this Fall. It will be different than what we’ve been doing (using the Issues Survey to initiate conversations with voters). In some places, the Coordinated Campaigns in those states will take over the project, but continue to ask voters how they intended to vote on the abortion amendment and whether they had a single issue that would determine their vote in November. Elsewhere, the Harris and Coordinated Campaigns are hiring our organizers, with the same effect. But we will be continuing to canvass in the areas that aren’t covered by the presidential effort.
We have now identified 608,734 Abortion single issue voters in the 14 Swing States where we have knocked on doors this year, and expect to find many more through Labor Day. But here’s what has changed: with the nomination of Kamala Harris, we have returned to the higher percentages of voters mentioning Reproductive Freedom as the single issue they identify with to make electoral decisions this year. Voter responses have snapped back to the same percentages we found did in 2022 and 2023.
Like the beginning of this year, 32% of Arizona voter and 28% Florida voters, 34% of Maryland voters and 32% of Nevada voters have identified Abortion as the single issue that would determine their vote or told us they were voting for the Reproductive Freedom amendments on their ballots.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to in these 12 Swing States tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up), GOTV and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
The thing is, talking to Harris staff about continuing this effort has to take place within the guardrails of FEC rules about coordinated effort. But we all share the goal of identifying as many Reproductive Freedom single issue voters and mobilizing them to vote this Fall. And just because we make our data “public” to Democratic candidates who use VAN (the Democratic database), it does not mean they do the same. Or other groups, who have organized around this purpose.
I had written earlier that “Reproductive Freedom is the major reason why 2024 won’t be a re-run of 2020. In fact, i’d argue that the 2024 election is much bigger than the 2020, and much bigger than Joe Biden or TFG.” Reproductive Freedom has suddenly returned to the forefront again. In 6 states last Saturday, abortion was the number 1 single issue voters mentioned in the single issue query.
I still expect most of our canvass areas to be taken over by the Harris or Coordinated Campaigns. But these conversations mean that we will get advanced notice on where they are opening offices and/or planning canvassing that allows us to feed volunteers into their system better this time. And we do have our own GOTV activities that we would then go to after they do so.
But voters are responding to the Harris nomination and thinking more about Freedom as a central issue to their vote. It will be incredibly interesting to see how these numbers change as local media in Arizona, Florida, Montana and Nevada start focusing on the issue.
Early Organizing broadens the number of avenues that the campaigns can talk to voters and mobilize them in October and November. That’s what we mean by establishing a favorable “battle space” for Democrats in with our canvassing methodology.
The shift in Florida might be the most significant since Republicans are engaged in a full-court effort to prevent voters from re-gaining their freedom. They have gotten more desperate since polling shows “Florida’s ballot initiative to protect abortion is winning” with 69 percent of respondents saying they will vote for Amendment 4. (Constitutional amendments need 60 percent of the vote to pass in Florida.
But Florida is not alone:
In nearly every state where the question of abortion rights could be put to a popular vote this November, conservatives are deploying several strategies — from suing to have signatures thrown out in Montana and South Dakota to refusing to count signatures in Arkansas — as they attempt to block ballot initiatives that would restore or expand access to the procedure.
The aggressive moves underscore the challenging position anti-abortion activists face more than two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. They have suffered a string of losses in red and purple states — including Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio — that voted decisively in favor of abortion rights. Now, in an effort to blunt one of progressives’ most effective post-Roe tools, Republican officials and anti-abortion groups are filing a new wave of lawsuits just ahead of summer deadlines for counting and verifying signatures in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Montana and South Dakota.
As these legal and bureaucratic battles play out, Republican candidates from Trump on down the ticket are
maintaining a careful silence on abortion. And when the issue does arise, most stick to the position recently enshrined in the party platform: that the GOP should “protect and defend a vote of the people, from within the states, on the issue of life.”
Here’s the thing. We don’t collect this data for knowledge’s sake. All this data is entered into VAN, the Democratic database. Campaigns can use it for micro-messaging to voters in their districts or for the purposes of GOTV (get-out-the-vote) in October. These are visceral voters, determined to vote. What i’ve been told by the voters i’ve been able to talk to about this is that the reason why the percentages change is that media attention on the issue reminds them how important the issue is to them. These voters have indicated that their interest doesn’t change, but their focus does. Which is kind of interesting. Abortion voters on our side aren’t like abortion voters on their side. And we shouldn’t expect them to be.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). But that’s where the MAGA canvassers are, as well. There is a lot of work to be done!
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
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