UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024 · 12:48:23 PM +00:00
·
Dem
In Michigan, the Bullfinch Group has her up 46% to 40% with third party candidates among registered voters and 48% to 43% among registered voters without third party candidates and NY Times has her up 48% to 43% among likely voters with third party candidates and 44% to 43% among registered voters with third party candidates and 50% to 46% among both likely and registered voters without third party candidates
UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024 · 12:39:27 PM +00:00 · Dem
In Pennsylvania, Vice President Harris is up four among registered voters with and without third party candidates according to the Bullfinch Group , 45% Harris 41% Trump with third party candidates and 49% Harris 45% Trump without third party candidates
NY Times Sienna College RV with third party candidates has her up 46% to 44% among likely voters and 45% to 43% among registered voters , up 50% to 46% among likely voters without third party candidates and 49% to 46% among registered voters without third party candidates.
When I saw a new pollof Wisconsin giving VP Harris a 9 point lead, then I was happy but skeptical.
.
The survey, conducted by the Independent Center between August 8 and 11, reveals that Harris secured 51 percent of the vote among respondents in Wisconsin, compared to Trump's 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Harris is also leading Trump by five percentage points in Michigan, securing 49 percent of the vote to the former president's 43 percent; and in Pennsylvania by four percentage points on 49 percent to Trump's 45 percent.
.
They mention that she holds a 2.3 percentage lead overall in 538's national aggregator. However, I looked at the other results in polls of Wisconsin on 538.
RMG Research (R) has her up 48% to 45% RV without third party candidates, NY Times/Sienna College has her up by various amounts, from 50% - 46% (twice- once LV and once RV, both without third party candidates) and 49% - 43% LV with third party candidates, and 49% - 42% RV with third party candidates, and then this new poll. Republican Insider Advantage has Trump up 49% to 48%. The Bullfinch Group has her up 51% to 42% without third party candidates and 49% to 40% with third party candidates.
This is a snapshot in time. It is not a prediction of what the final results will look like. It still seems likely that Wisconsin will be close even though that's insane because the last two times Donald Trump either narrowly won Wisconsin or narrowly lost Wisconsin and his voters are those who are most consistent and likely to vote.
