Here’s the latest news out of Ohio courtesy of ActiVote’s latest poll:
ActiVote’s August 12, 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate poll shows that Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown leads his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by 5.0%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 20, 2024 and August 12, 2024 with a median field date of July 31.
Moreno leads among rural and suburban voters, while Brown has a large lead among urban voters. Brown leads all age groups, except those 65 and older. Brown leads among women, while Moreno leads among men. While Brown dominates among Democrats, his 25% share among Republicans is what propels him ahead of Moreno, who has the lead among independents. Moreno has a small lead among White voters, while Brown gets over 9 out of 10 Black voters. Moreno further leads among those with a high income and narrowly leads among those with High School or less in education.
There’s a terrific piece out in Rolling Stone that’s a must read which highlights why Brown is still holding on in Ohio:
The Democratic Party is not, to put it gently, in good shape in Ohio. Before Biden made the remarkable decision to drop his bid for reelection, he was absolutely dying in the state. After passing the reins to Vice President Kamala Harris, things look a little better, but not much. Since 2016, Ohio has belonged to Donald Trump: He beat Hillary Clinton 51 to 43 percent and then trounced Biden 53 to 45 in 2020. But Brown has thus far managed to find a path to victory, preserving a key Senate seat for the shaky Democratic majority.
“I think Sherrod Brown is the smartest politician in Ohio,” says one longtime Republican operative in the state. “If anyone can survive this year and the national Senate map, it would be [him]. Anyone who writes the obituary for Sherrod Brown is dumb.”
Still, 2024 is the first time he’ll have run in an election year with Trump, as well as a fellow Ohioan on the top of the opposing ticket — along with all the chaos in the Democratic Party. While I was in Ohio reporting this story, Biden faltered so badly on the debate stage that it touched off a weekslong succession crisis as Democratic leaders fought tooth and nail over whether or not to eject him from the ticket. Then, someone shot Trump in the ear — an honest-to-God assassination attempt, culminating in an indelible image of a wounded candidate raising his fist in defiance as blood ran down his face. He recovered and announced Ohio’s junior senator, J.D. Vance, as his vice presidential running mate. Then, Biden dropped out. What never changed, though, was Brown’s strategy for winning — and winning big — in a polarized state that’s hostile to the party he represents.
Not to mention, Brown’s opponent is a pretty lousy candidate with a history of committing wage theft:
In 2012, a Porsche dealership owned by Republican U.S. Senate nominee Bernie Moreno recruited a general manager from Virginia with decades of experience selling the German sports cars. A year and a half later, they cut ties with the salesman, and pretty soon he was in court claiming Moreno hadn't delivered on the pay package that lured him to Ohio.
Before agreeing to take the job, Michael Falcone's complaint states, he wanted assurance that the move to Ohio would make financial sense. The offer on the table was $80,000 in base pay as well as a commission of 5% of the dealership's "total variable gross profit."
In a follow-up email exchange, Falcone pressed Moreno on the terms and according to court documents, Moreno wrote back, "Just so we are clear, you will get paid on ALL VARIABLE gross profit."
Falcone signed the offer sheet the following day and began work shorty after. His complaint describes working for several months before asking for documentation so he could double check his commission. "Despite multiple requests," Falcone argued, the company didn't provide the kind of sales information that would help him calculate what he was owed.
What's more, Falcone contends that after he began asking about his compensation, his superiors retaliated against him and "embarked on a concerted campaign to force Mr. Falcone's resignation."
Falcone was demoted from general manager to used car manager and stripped of responsibilities. In January of 2014, after he'd been working there for about a year and a half, Falcone was terminated. The company said he was being let go because of unsatisfactory performance and a "permanent reduction in force."
But that round of downsizing was exceptionally narrow. Falcone was the only employee dismissed.
Falcone alleged that the manager in the meeting told him he would not receive his outstanding compensation until he signed the termination agreement. He did so, albeit reluctantly, because he wanted to be paid, and because he understood the reduction in force designation would make him eligible to collect unemployment compensation.
They didn't give him a copy of the form when we left and Falcone got an unsettling surprise when he emailed the human resources department asking them to provide one.
"When HR e-mailed him a copy of the form, it was clear that the form had been altered after it had been signed and without Mr. Falcone’s knowledge or consent," the complaint states. "Specifically, the line indicating that his termination was, in part, due to a permanent reduction in force had been whited out, leaving only the unsupported allegation of unsatisfactory performance as the sole reason for Mr. Falcone's termination."
Democrats have stayed on message with Moreno:
This might explain this move:
