We have changes in the Top 3 on our state v state Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteer turnout list this week. For the last couple of weeks, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan have topped the list, and while Michigan remains on the list (in third place), it is largely because our Michigan volunteers turned out in greater numbers than even before. Two weeks ago (July 27th), when we felt the energy of Kamala Harris becoming the nominee, Michigan had 1,152 volunteers show up. Last week (Aug 3rd), 1,236 volunteers came out to knock on doors. On Saturday (Aug 10th), 1,352 gave up their Saturday morning to do so. It’s a progression not seen in any other state.
Consensus Electoral College Battlegrounds
I had been explaining away why Michigan hadn’t the same level of turnout like we saw in Wisconsin by noting that we hadn’t been in the state as long and hadn’t built up our volunteer list to the same degree. But Saturday’s turnout suggests that’s no longer the case. The map is changing, and it is trending our way. Those changes are led by volunteer enthusiasm and their efforts at the doors.
Most importantly, Michigan is a Blue Wall state. Next week, Gaza protest leaders hope to make a dent in Democrats’ fortunes (unlike the minimal impact they had in Milwaukee), not in the least due to the support they found in the Michigan Democratic primary. But we aren’t seeing this on the ground. For the most part, we don’t talk to younger people on Saturday mornings in suburbia. We talk to their parents. And they have other issues on their minds.
But we aren’t knocking on doors in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. And that makes a huge difference there. That doesn’t mean we can ignore the pleas from those communities. But it does mean that we have to make up for any voter drop-off, which is what we endeavor to do.
Consensus Senate Battlegrounds
Why am i talking about this? Because part of my focus right now is the Democratic convention next week. Chicago has a vibrant activist community and they have circled the convention on their calendars for months now. They have been training their people, and voiced their distaste for the restrictions the Secret Service has placed on their planned dissent activities.
My friends in the Chicago area aren’t exactly pleased when i tell them that Palestine doesn’t register on our Issues list that we take from voter input. Which usually results in an exchange where they assume Hope Springs doesn’t canvass in any areas around major colleges. Which depends on whether you consider Michigan State a major college (we do knock on doors in the Lansing suburbs). I feel like knowing this only makes my activist friends in Chicago even more determined. But we don’t know yet what kind of presence the protesters will have during the convention. Their presence in Milwaukee was hardly memorable.
Here’s the thing: although Michigan was third in the number of volunteers who showed up on Saturday, it was first in the number of doors that got knocked on. Weather had a lot to do with it. Pretty easy to knock on doors when it’s in the 70s.
On Saturday, 1,352 volunteers came out to canvass in the swingy grey (and pink) districts (MI-3, MI-4, MI-7, MI-8 & MI-10).
Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 100,994 doors last Saturday and talked to 8,867 voters. 5,642 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey.
Economic Uncertainty was the most frequent response to our question about voter’s top concern on Saturday in Michigan. This means, for the most part, that we heard complaints and/or questions about when the Fed was going to cut interest rates — something that many voters, it seems, have been expecting for awhile. Housing and Insurance Issues (ie, Rent, Single Home Availability and affordability of both Housing and Insurance) were the #2 issue voters raised. Concern over Political Violence was the third issue we heard at the doors.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to in these 13 Swing States tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Vice President Harris’ Approval among the Michiganders we talked to was at 58% last Saturday. 6% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 59% of the voters said they Approved of the job Elissa Slotkin was doing; 7% thought otherwise. 61% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Gov. Whitmer was doing while 6% expressed Disapproval.
Volunteers registered 51 new voters and re-registered 136 voters in compliance with Federal (HAVA) law. Again, we note that we differentiate between the new voters and existing voters because the former can often be forgotten (or clumped together with their family) during GOTV and first time voters need special care! And Hope Springs will again engage in special GOTV efforts aimed at getting young new voters to the polls next year.
453 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican (and there isn’t a Democrat who could take on the request), we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
4 voters in Michigan completed an Incident Report. Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November. Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican. (We also make Issues Surveys, Incident Reports and Constituent Service Request forms available at the churches we visit, but we don’t include numbers for those, in part because we don’t always get counts back, but also because we like to compare like to like.)
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File. Our biggest expense had been the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. Now, printing literature is becoming our largest cost. We are switching out our old lit for Kamala Harris-based walk lit. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
2023 Hope Springs expenses
But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs us more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers). So please:
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
