www.faupolling.com/…Florida Atlantic University Poll of Florida
Former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Florida voters, with 50% supporting Trump and 47% backing Harris. This close margin suggests Florida’s potential swing state status may return in the upcoming election.
“The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida.”
In a three-way race, the poll has Trump at 47%, Harris at 45%, and Kennedy at 5% among the 1,040 likely voters surveyed.
The Florida Atlantic University poll from June had Trump leading by six points.
Trump won Florida by 3.3% in 2020 and while it is unlikely to be the tipping point state, it is a considerable win for Kamala Harris if Republicans must spend money in such an expensive state.
However, Florida could be crucial to control of the Senate and even the House. Incumbent Rick Scott leads in the US Senate race 47% to 43% over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, according to this poll by Florida Atlantic University.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Other recent polls have Trump winning The Sunshine State with between 4% to 8% and Scott winning by 4% to 10%.
A Democratic poll from five days ago shows Harris winning in Miami-Dade County by 14%, much better than the 7% Biden managed in 2020.
The proposed amendments to the Florida constitution protecting abortion access and allowing recreational marijuana are leading with 56% supporting, a little short of the 60% needed.
According to Politico, Trump has not yet announced how he will vote on the amendment to repeal the six-week Florida ban on abortions. That could be a decision that could cost him votes in either direction both nationally and in Florida.
The poll was conducted from Aug. 10 to 11, sampling 1,055 registered Florida voters aged 18 and older. The survey was administered in both Spanish and English using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and an online panel, ensuring a representative sample of the state’s voting population. While a specific margin of error cannot be assigned due to the online component, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples...
